What if the USA had succeeded in Canada in 1775 or 1812?

[Yeti]

Am wondering what the ramifications would have been if Benedict Arnold and Ethan Allen had succeeded in capturing Quebec (and possibly Montreal) in 1775?

Or, if the USA had taken Ontario province in 1812?
Could the USA have taken Quebec then?
Could the USA have permanently conquered Canada in the War of 1812?

How would Canada (or parts of it) becoming part of the USA have effected:
A) Fugitive slaves?
I mean, they no longer would have sanctuary in Canada, so where does one go when one escapes?
B) The American Civil War?
C) Election politics and parties in the 19th century USA?

 

[Letum]

1812 no, by then there's too much of a Canadian identity/hostile local population and also a lack of imperialist will domestically in the US.

1776 possibly but you'd more likely end up with either an independent Québec or a very different US government structure.

The formative years of a nation are easily thrown off by different territories/different balance of power especially if one of them is francophone. You're likely to see a much looser federation if everything sticks together.

Which in turn changes everything about future US expansion, future wars, the issue of slavery, etc etc. You may never end up with slavery being thrown into the mix of federal power balance and never igniting into a war.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

My opinion is probably known, but the US didn't stand a chance of taking what would become Canada by force in 1775 or 1812 (interestingly they almost got it as an afterthought in the treaty negotiations). However, Quebec probably would have gone independent while what would have become Ontario would most likely have been absorbed by the US.

Going from the idea that *Ontario is absorbed by the US (and assuming Britain keeps her Pacific possessions and Rupert's Land) I'll take a stab at this:

A) They can probably run north to the alternate state of *Ontario or even further north to Quebec. Or continue even further east to Britain's Maritime possessions.

B) This is hard to say, but given that *Ontario will probably have a stateworthy population by 1830 or so, it means there's a near immediate imbalance with free and slave states. So this really throws things out of whack earlier which might mean an alt-civil war kicks off before 1860.

C) Election politics and parties in the 19th century USA?

Really depends on the demographics of who settles the territory.

 

[SeaBos]

Conquering Canada in 1775 could have a detrimental effect on the US, if Quebec does choose to secede shortly after independence no one could really stop them and it would establish a precedent that other rebellious states could follow in the future. Ontario and the Maritimes could end up culturally a part of New England meaning that New England has a stronger effect on the US for a longer period of time (assuming the country doesn't immediately go Quebec).

As for what's left of BNA it is unlikely that you would see large scale settlement to Rupert's Land, so this could become a backwater colony with a predominately Inuit culture.

Settlement is an interesting question, the British have just lost one of their major destinations for British citizens to settle. This could lead to the remaining otl white dominions (Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa) receiving an earlier influx of colonist and developing a more urban culture, the British trying their hand at settling some of their nonwhite colonies (Sierra Leone, Jamaica, Belize), settling parts of the world that don;t have the means to oppose large scale British settlement (PNW, Alaska, Hawaii, Hokkaido, Taiwan, Ireland, Texas, ect.) or the British people could stay in Britain (which would probably lead to more social unrest from poor people that no longer have the opportunity to build a new life for themselves in other parts of the world.

 

[galveston bay]

1812 no, by then there's too much of a Canadian identity/hostile local population and also a lack of imperialist will domestically in the US.

1776 possibly but you'd more likely end up with either an independent Québec or a very different US government structure.

The formative years of a nation are easily thrown off by different territories/different balance of power especially if one of them is francophone. You're likely to see a much looser federation if everything sticks together.

Which in turn changes everything about future US expansion, future wars, the issue of slavery, etc etc. You may never end up with slavery being thrown into the mix of federal power balance and never igniting into a war.

the problem is Halifax (very strongly held) and Newfoundland, but otherwise in terms of culture and traditions, the New Englanders and population of the Canadian Maritimes are far more similar to each other than they are to just about anyone else in North America according to this work

https://www.amazon.com/American-Nations-History-Regional-Cultures/dp/0143122029

the only time the Americans really had a good shot at eastern Canada was in1775-6, and they simply did not have the strength

it is not impossible that western Upper Canada (Ontario) could have been taken and kept in the War of 1812 if a lot of other things went well for the US (such as someone like Harrison commanding at Detroit instead of Hull). However again the US just didn't have the strength and taking eastern Canada was even more an impossible dream at the time.

IF for some reason, against all odds, the Americans pulled it off, then yes, there would be a lot of butterflies in North American and US history. (not to mention Canadian History!)

 

[Planet of Hats]

Out, vile POD! Vade retro, Satana!

"America conquers Canada" timelines never seem to take into account how filthily weak the US military was at the time. The Canadians actually did very well in early 1812 especially because the British regulars were well-trained and the Americans were much less so, and the American militia was basically a joke until later in the war.

 

[Wendell]

We'd see a U.S. that was more Catholic, and which had a stronger Red Tory strain in at least one major party. States' rights ideas might be stronger with Quebec in the Union. This might also be doable in the 1860's under the right circumstances, but by then, many of the underlying issues the OP wants addressed might have already been settled.