What if the US refuses to take Pakistan as an ally in the 1950s?

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
What if the U.S. judges that however much it wants a containment perimeter around the USSR, Pakistan is more of a liability than an asset. Allying with Pakistan bilaterally, without a prior common South Asian defense agreement (between India and Pakistan) threatens to alienate larger India and the more forwardly positioned Afghanistan.

In building SEATO in 1954, the US decides to not seek or accept Pakistan as a member, figuring it is hardly near the Southeast Asia region (even with East Pakistan) and that India would be more important.

In building CENTO and the Baghdad Pact in 1955, the US decides that the Shah's Iran after '53 provides sufficient coverage of the southern USSR. Washington hopes to add Afghanistan to the alliance, but is not interested in Pakistan as a second-choice.

I suspect under the circumstances, without the US-Pakistan alliance, Pakistan is weaker in terms of armament. All other things being equal, I think Nehru would go through the 1950s and 1960s remaining committed to non-alignment. Afghanistan will probably stick to neutrality also, not wanting to alienate the USSR while having crappy relations with Pakistan, and not seeing a connection to the outside world just through the Shah's Iran alone as a safe bet.

I suspect US U-2 flights will base from Iran instead of Pakistan.

What is happening by the time we get to the mid-1960s?

Have the Pakistanis made an alliance with the USSR or PRC?

If not, would it be mainly because neither would be interested in being a partner with Pakistan, for the same reasons the US declined to ally?

If Pakistan allies with China earlier as a result, will that either cause a (more poorly armed) Pakistani attack on India during the 1962 Sino-Indian war. Or lead to an India de facto aligned with the US while still officially non-aligned?

Without a U.S. alliance and related US arms sales, would Pakistan have the confidence to attack India in 1965?

Would India do any major bullying against Pakistan between 55 and 65 if Pakistan lacks allies?
 

Ak-84

Banned
ASB'ish to the extreme and informed by current day political opinions, not 1950's strategic fact. There is no way that the U.S does not try and woo Pakistan, its position on the USSR's southern flank and access to warm (and open) waters makes it too important for the US in the containment context. The U.S would be sending "assistance" whether the Pakistan Government wanted it or not.

US aid to Pakistani armed forces has been overstated IMO. Start of US support caused an actual drop in the size of the Armed forces, two divisions were divided (6th and 9th) and except for forces in Kashmir and in East Pakistan, remaining went to 7 battalions a division. (7,8,10, division), and the equipment supplied was not exactly frontline, WW2 surplus equipment.

Kashmir would have happened, US or no US.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
ASB'ish to the extreme

I think your scale is broken. I think you are using ASB as a synonym for "improbable" and to the "extreme" for a little.

I mean, if this idea is ASB'ish in the extreme, how much spectrum is left on your scale for things like the Confederates or Nazis winning, or the Amerindians fighting or for things that actually violate the laws of physics, chemistry and biology?

and informed by current day political opinion

You said it, I did not. You're assuming thoughts on my part that were not written

its position on the USSR's southern flank

If Pakistan's position on the USSR's southern flank makes it desirable, wouldn't Afghanistan be even more desirable as an ally. And Afghanistan and Pakistan did not get along.

Also, Pakistan isn't the only place on the USSR's southern flank-- there is Iran next door, and then Turkey just to the left.

Kashmir would have happened, US or no US.

Never said it would not have happened or caused later wars. In fact I talked more about potential wars than potential harmony. And obviously it wouldn't change the events of 1947-49. But is it foreordained that the next war of Kashmir would wait until 1965, or that it would definitely happen by that year instead of later?
 
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