What if the US Pacific Fleet remained based on the West Coast over 1940-1?

What if the US Pacific Fleet remained based on the West Coast over 1940-1? I am assuming that US policy remains otherwise the same but that the objections of Admiral Richardson, who may have called Pearl a "god-damned mousetrap", are accepted.
 
Well, no Pearl Harbor attack. :)

If the Japanese make the grab for the Dutch East Indies, they'll probably still attack the Phillippines. The precedent for a surprise attack a la the Russo-Japanese War is still there, so they might do the same thing to the Filipino facilities they did to Pearl.

Whether that inspires the same outrage among the American public the Pearl Harbor attack did, I don't know.
 
Whether that inspires the same outrage among the American public the Pearl Harbor attack did, I don't know.

Probably not, US still enters the war, but later on people will argue (especially those on the far left and far right) that it was an offensive rather than defensive war since US was fighting Japan over some asian countries.
 
If they do attack the Philippines and start a fight with the US I expect that they would hit Pearl Harbour and the surrounding airfields to take out the infrastructure.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
If Richardson is in command, we follow a much different strategy. First, he would have had the wooden decks replaced by armored on all carriers at the start of the War. So the carriers are in dry dock for a few months. Second, he did not believe enough supplies (fuel and ammo) were available to conduct plan orange, so the battleships are largely inactive until the carriers are finished. In the mean time, he is building up supplies and defenses of Pearl Harbor. Now FDR would not like this strategy, so there is lots of friction, maybe Richardson gets fired anyway.

To get to the west coast is an extra week each way, so i don't see the Japanese attacking either Pearl or San Diego. The main battle fleet is likely used to support the Malaysia/Indonesia operations, so these operations go a little faster. Not much faster, just a few % faster. The main limitation to the Japanese was lack of sea transport. I think attacking the Philippines is still likely, but maybe Japan rethinks the attack on the USA and only does the European powers. Richardson being left in control probably means FDR has a different policy, so there is lots of butterflies. Presidents don't like being told there plans will not work, so i have a hard time seeing FDR leaving Richardson in power unless FDR has a different plans.

Richardson also did not see the South Pacific as important as Nimitz did. He state he though even taking Truk would not be that useful, since it had no dry docks and was really just an anchorage. I suspect if he was in power, he would push for the most direct route to Japan, skipping the entire South Pacific. Maybe Marshall Islands, Guam, Okinawa, Japan.

Richardson in charge almost immediately butterflies away most things that happen in the Pacific War, since he likely does almost nothing for 6 months.
 
Simon said:
I expect that they would hit Pearl Harbour and the surrounding airfields to take out the infrastructure.
Not. The attack was on the Fleet to keep it out of SWP. Japan never expected the war to last long enough for the facilities to matter.:eek::rolleyes: I have my doubts they'd strike at San Pedro or Dago, if the Fleet was based there.
BlondieBC said:
First, [Richardson] would have had the wooden decks replaced by armored on all carriers at the start of the War.
Care to substantiate that claim? Moreover, that requires re-engineering the ships, so he's without the authority to do it off his own bat, absent approval of BuC&R (BuShips).:rolleyes:
BlondieBC said:
Richardson in charge almost immediately butterflies away most things that happen in the Pacific War, since he likely does almost nothing for 6 months.
Sitting on his hands for any length of time will get him fired, & he'd damn well know it.:mad: There's no way a senior admiral could let it go.

That, of course, presumes Congress declares war on Japan without Japan actually attacking Hawaii...:rolleyes: Which is by no means a certainty. And is, IMO (& the opinion of others who know more than me), the strategy Japan should have adopted. She wouldn't OTL because of IJN/IJA politicking in Japan's government. With the Fleet on the West Coast, IJN likely loses that argument.:rolleyes: Which means things will likely go very, very badly for the Brits & Dutch.:eek::eek: (Until Hitler does something colossally stupid in the Atlantic...:rolleyes:)
 
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Flubber

Banned
First, he would have had the wooden decks replaced by armored on all carriers at the start of the War. So the carriers are in dry dock for a few months.


Where did you read that? I've never come across that particular claim.

Armoring the decks is going to be a bigger job than just a few months in dry dock too. Thanks to weight and other issue, you're essentially looking at rebuilding the carriers' hulls.

Second, he did not believe enough supplies (fuel and ammo) were available to conduct plan orange...

That's just flat out wrong. Not the supplies issue but the belief that the Navy was going to launch Orange.

It's well known that officially Orange was dead by early 30s at the very least and most likely provisionally dead by the early 20s. The US realized early on that Japan knew about Orange and that Japan had been planning accordingly. Japan had even built warships with specific roles in mind for it's anti-Orange plans. Launching a strategic offensive which your enemy has known about for decades and which your enemy has been planning on countering for decades would be criminally stupid. (A quick search of the archives here shows that nearly all the posters who discuss the Pacific War know that Orange was dead so it's surprising that you brought it up.)

Richardson in charge almost immediately butterflies away most things that happen in the Pacific War, since he likely does almost nothing for 6 months.

That claim is ludicrous.
 
It would make a very different opening of Pacific war. Japanese didn't attack Pearl just because they could, but because they saw the chance to eliminate bulk of US Pacific fleet. Had it not been present in such a position as to make tempting target, perhaps Japan would try peaceful approach?

But probably not, on second thought. They would then stick to their pre war plan to occupy Philipines and wait for inevitable US attack.
 
An attack on the Phillipines will bring a US declaration of war. It is still a US possession and more importantly American servicemen are killed The US fleet can counterattack more quickly.
 
Not. The attack was on the Fleet to keep it out of SWP. Japan never expected the war to last long enough for the facilities to matter.:eek::rolleyes: I have my doubts they'd strike at San Pedro or Dago, if the Fleet was based there.
They can't Pearl Harbor was the absolute limit of their striking range

That, of course, presumes Congress declares war on Japan without Japan actually attacking Hawaii...:rolleyes: Which is by no means a certainty. And is, IMO (& the opinion of others who know more than me), the strategy Japan should have adopted. She wouldn't OTL because of IJN/IJA politicking in Japan's government. With the Fleet on the West Coast, IJN likely loses that argument.:rolleyes: Which means things will likely go very, very badly for the Brits & Dutch.:eek::eek: (Until Hitler does something colossally stupid in the Atlantic...:rolleyes:)
The Japanese never considered attacking the British or Dutch possessions with the Philippines still in American hands, and furthermore the US stated they would go to war if Japan attacked the DEI and were most likely going to from what I have heard on the board

The Germans already sank two US destroyers and almost got a battleship, they will do something stupid eventually
 
Like MerryPrankster was saying we're going to see probably a larger operation against the Phillipines, however if it is known that the fleet is at San Diego or San Pedro it's going to be fair game as well.

Hitting a target in densely-populated California is going to incite national fervor even more so than Pearl Harbor...
 
Like MerryPrankster was saying we're going to see probably a larger operation against the Phillipines, however if it is known that the fleet is at San Diego or San Pedro it's going to be fair game as well.

Hitting a target in densely-populated California is going to incite national fervor even more so than Pearl Harbor...
They can't, literally cannot, small sub raids yes, large scale carrier raids, no, Pearl Harbor was far enough away they were worrying about having to abandon the escorts, this will be worse
 
They can't, literally cannot, small sub raids yes, large scale carrier raids, no, Pearl Harbor was far enough away they were worrying about having to abandon the escorts, this will be worse

Yeah the Japanese weren't ones to give up a plan they had no matter how inadvisable. It would be a different attack, but an attack nevertheless, not the half-baked raids of the historical war, but a serious attack.

To even do the kinds of damage that Pearl Harbor did (surprisingly not that much) would be... ambitious of them to expect to say the least.
 
Yeah the Japanese weren't ones to give up a plan they had no matter how inadvisable. It would be a different attack, but an attack nevertheless, not the half-baked raids of the historical war, but a serious attack.

To even do the kinds of damage that Pearl Harbor did (surprisingly not that much) would be... ambitious of them to expect to say the least.
They won't, they cannot sail their ships that far and get them back, it is physically impossible, they lack the tankerage
 
The Japanese can't attack the west coast due to issues with ship range, limited ability to refuel at sea etc. Also, once they get west of Hawaii their ability to remain undetected by sailing where there is little or no ship traffic is diminished - good odds somebody will see them and radio it in.

Japan will attack the PI - they have to. Even if the US does not go to war if the Japanese invade DEI or Borneo, the newly captured oil passes by the PI on the way to Japan and the shipping is completely vulnerable. Since Japan (specifically the army) was NOT going to abandon the war in China, after the embargo of August 1941 Japan had to "capture" oil to continue the war. Their naval planners will simply plan on dealing with the US fleet at sea rather than at PH. The attacks OTL on the PI on December 7/8 will be larger since the Kido Butai will not be off Hawaii. Attacking the PI, killing US soldiers & sailors with a sneak attack while the Japanese delegates are still discussing "peace" in DC will still hugely piss off the USA & war is a certainty.

BTW by the end of the 1930s the "color" plans like Orange, Green, Black etc were out and replaced with Rainbow 1-5, with Rainbow-5 being the expected plan to be utilized.
 
How can anyone say that an attack on the Phillipines would not bring a US declaration of war? It is American soil and there are many many dead Americans. Roosevelt gives the same speech and there is still only one no vote in Congress.
 
pearl harbor

Lets say the main pacific fleet was based out of SD. The japanese would have still had to have attacked pearl harbor at some point on or near 12.7.1941. It would be the major jumping off and resupply station in the central pacific; and I cannot see them just letting alone without making some kind of acgion towards it. IMO it would be valuable not to attack during the opening stages of the war. I doubt that they could land enough troops and keep them provisioned to hold the main islands - unless major naval air units (US carriers) were destroyed early on, say in an attempt to reinforce Wake Island.
 
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