What if the US and the USSR joined into warning Germany that an invasion of Poland is war?

Germany faced the prospect (even if they didnt expected them to go through it) of a war with France and Britain should they invade Poland.

What would happen if Roosevelt somehow managed to throw the US into the mix and Stalin was persuaded of how a bad idea the M-L pact is (possibly even getting promised gains in Poland for joining)

This means that now for invading Poland Germany faces war with: France, Britain, the US AND the Soviet Union.

Do you think Hitler would still invade or go back? If so what would happen now? As it is clear Germany cant invade anymore without facing an unified front and Germany's economy cant survive without looting?
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
That would be directly contrary to the Soviet Union's interests. Stalin got a nice chunk of the Poland, and at a fairly low butcher's bill (under 3,000 "non recoverable losses" and 8-10,000 WIA). What's more, after the defeat of the Reich, the Soviets KEPT IT, rolling it into Belorussia and Ukraine (the regions remain part of Belarus and Ukraine to this day).


As recently as last year The Russian Supreme Court upheld the conviction of a Russian blogger for "rehabilitation of Nazism" for publishing the facts regarding the Soviet Invasion.

Stalin would be cutting off his own nose to spite his face. Not his style.

Roosevelt might have wanted to corral Hitler, but even hinting that he would let the U.S. get involved in a European War over Poland, would have been one of the few sure ways to keep him from a 3rd Term. I doubt that 1/3 of American in 1939 could have found Poland on a map (pretty much the same as today, Americans have a terrible record when it comes to geography) . No way FDR and/or Congress start rattling sabers over the country (not that the U.S.had much in the saber inventory in 1939).
 
That would be directly contrary to the Soviet Union's interests. Stalin got a nice chunk of the Poland, and at a fairly low butcher's bill (under 3,000 "non recoverable losses" and 8-10,000 WIA). What's more, after the defeat of the Reich, the Soviets KEPT IT, rolling it into Belorussia and Ukraine (the regions remain part of Belarus and Ukraine to this day).


As recently as last year The Russian Supreme Court upheld the conviction of a Russian blogger for "rehabilitation of Nazism" for publishing the facts regarding the Soviet Invasion.

Stalin would be cutting off his own nose to spite his face. Not his style.

Roosevelt might have wanted to corral Hitler, but even hinting that he would let the U.S. get involved in a European War over Poland, would have been one of the few sure ways to keep him from a 3rd Term. I doubt that 1/3 of American in 1939 could have found Poland on a map (pretty much the same as today, Americans have a terrible record when it comes to geography) . No way FDR and/or Congress start rattling sabers over the country (not that the U.S.had much in the saber inventory in 1939).

I understand this is unlikely.

But my question is about what would happen if it happened, not how likely it is.

And Stalin doesnt know he will roll on the way into Berlin.

He only knows he is getting Poland, he might be convinced if he sees Hitler WILL invade him and if the allies allow him to keep as much of Poland as Hitler allowed him in the event of an invasion.
 
He knew Hitler was going to invade the USSR. That's part of why he agreed to the M-R pact. It put Soviet troops/weapons/power as far west as possible to deal with it.
 
This would be a complete repudiation of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact that the Soviet Union signed literally one month earlier and furthermore would be hugely detrimental to Soviet geopolitical interests. The United States would have really nothing to stand on: the US public mood was still heavily isolationist in 1939 and any US threat would be hamstrung by this. Isolationist sentiment in the US was well-known to European leaders of the era.

In addition to the aforementioned matters regarding Poland, the pact very clearly assigned much of Eastern Europe and even the Baltic States to the Soviet sphere. If Stalin destroys the Pact, the Soviets have none of these guarantees and the Germans can easily offer alliances to Soviet border states, which they would do without hesitation if the Soviets so openly violated a pact before the ink was dry. The Soviets would be in a nightmare scenario for this: immediate German hostility and the likely formation of a hostile alliance on their border to include countries that were forfeited to Soviet dominance historically.

But to get to the crux of why this wouldn't happen, it simply wasn't in Stalin's character to do. Stalin's foreign policy was one that could be characterised as having an excess of caution as opposed to Hitler who repeatedly made bold grabs for power and influence. Stalin's government had very, very steadily built up diplomatic and economic relations with the Western countries: finally achieving diplomatic recognition from the United States, France, and Great Britain and forming strong economic ties to buy Western industrial equipment and tools during the Great Depression. The Soviet Union also joined the League of Nations, being one of the last major countries of Europe to do so. This was coming from almost a decade of near-complete isolation from the international community with almost no diplomatic ties to much of Europe. Stalin's expansion and aggressive actions were things he always did with the utmost caution. Even on the eve of Operation Barbarossa in 1941, Stalin ignored a substantial body of evidence, including outright knowledge of a forthcoming German invasion from the Sorge Ring (a Soviet infiltrator in Japan who became aware of the invasion as a result of German efforts to entice Japan to join the invasion) because he was utterly convinced that German war preparations were a ruse to force him to strike first.

So really, a lot of issues about "why did Stalin not do X" come down to Stalin's personality and policies being extremely different from those of Axis leaders in this era.
 
That would be directly contrary to the Soviet Union's interests.

This would be a complete repudiation of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact that the Soviet Union signed literally one month earlier and furthermore would be hugely detrimental to Soviet geopolitical interests.

I think we shouldn't forget that the Molotov-Ribbentrop-Pact wasn't Stalin's first choice. He tried to form an alliance with Britain and France during 1938 and 1939, but these negotiations failed due to general mistrust of the Soviet Union. Stalin only turned to Hitler when the western powers rejected his help.

So with a POD in 1938 or early 1939, it's perfectly possible to have the USSR guarantee Poland. This means that the Soviets can't annex eastern Poland immediatly. But once the war against Germany errupted, Stalin will find some way to work arround the treaties and take what he wants.
 
Top