What if the United States re-entered the Vietnam war militarily in 1975?

What do you all think would need to happen in the U.S government to allow this to happen?

What would the war look like for all sides?

And lastly how would the American public react?
 

marathag

Banned
What do you all think would need to happen in the U.S government to allow this to happen?

What would the war look like for all sides?

And lastly how would the American public react?
1a. No Watergate Scandal
1b. Ford willing to fight over the War powers Act, and risk impeachment
2. repeat of 1972
3 With 1a. of no scandal, unhappy, but you didn't see a lot of anti-war activity over the failed Easter Offensive. 1b, Dems in the House easily impeach Ford in a show trial all on TV, but fails to convict in the Senate. Nation's Blue/Red split starts here
 

Evidential

Banned
In order for it to happen:

At least one state government in the US has to refuse to honor the 1975 peace accords, i.e. refuse to renounce and surrender any portion of its territory.

The US military has to withdraw from all of South Vietnam and Cambodia.
Some people, possibly a minority, in the US government will oppose such a move, which would necessitate the overthrow of those officials by force, possibly a coup d'état.

I don't know how the war would play out in the US, but I think it would be very bad for the US, and I would not bet against the fact that it would happen.

I'd guess it would start pretty much like it did in 1973, with a new United States government and armed forces pulling back to the DMZ, so as to consolidate the gains of the previous two years.
At the same time, with Nixon having left the country, Congress would find that it had little political capital to build on to attempt to return to the pre-election status quo, which would require at least a limited war to have any hope of stopping the government of South Vietnam from breaking up into several states.
Of course, such a plan would be resisted by the South Vietnamese, who'd soon find out how easy it is to do when they have no government or army.

In order for a third Indochina war to happen, we have to look at the history of such a war, and the things that are required for it to happen.
There are two reasons why such a war would not happen:

First, for a third Indochina war to occur, we have to look at history. We must understand the issues involved and how they have been resolved. This is especially important since we are dealing with such a specific region and the complexities of it.

The region in question is in Indochina. It has been divided into North Vietnam and South Vietnam since 1954, and the conflict has been continuous. To understand this, we need to look at how the First and Second Indochina Wars were resolved.

The first of these two conflicts was known as the First Indochina War. The Second Indochina War began after the fall of Saigon and the exile of the Republic of Vietnam.
After the end of the First Indochina War, there were a few possibilities:

Saigon would have to fall to the Communists. This would result in a resounding defeat of the United States. If that happened, the United States would have lost much of the former Free World and Vietnam would have been added to the Soviet sphere of influence. It would be impossible to claim that we had won the war, since the people of Vietnam were suffering from American involvement.

The Saigon government would have to leave, allowing the Communist Party of Vietnam to take over. The situation would have been similar to that in the Soviet Union. The Communist Party would have maintained power and been on top. The United States would have lost a large amount of money. If it were allowed to happen, the United States would have to spend more money in the region in the future. It would also result in a loss of the credibility that the United States had gained during the Vietnam War.

An arrangement would have to be made between the Communists and the Saigon government. There were four main alternatives:

It could have been a co-dominance between the Communists and the Saigon government, and the situation would have been similar to that of China.

The Communists could have completely dominated the situation, making sure that the Communists would be in control of the area.
The Saigon government could have attempted to gain power back, although they could not have prevented the Communists from taking over. This would have been similar to the situation in Burma.

The Communists and the Saigon government could have made a compromise and split the region into two separate states: one controlled by the Communists and one controlled by the Saigon government. This would be similar to the situation in Germany.
 
There is no way the U.S. was going to put ground troops back in Vietnam at that time. If they had tried there would have been riots in many U.S. cities and University campuses. There may have been mass desertions form military units. There may have been limited air strikes but nothing on the scale of the Rolling Thunder missions of the earlier era.
 

marathag

Banned
If they had tried there would have been riots in many U.S. cities and University campuses
Nah, Draft was over
Might of said that they were protesting the War, but was the Draft that was the real driver ofthe protests.

But I agree, it would just be air strikes, like 1972
 
No ground troops save for MACV-SOG or other Special Forces. Expect to see more air strikes by the USAF and the USN. I'm not sure if that is enough to save the RVN.
 
No ground troops save for MACV-SOG or other Special Forces. Expect to see more air strikes by the USAF and the USN. I'm not sure if that is enough to save the RVN.
Yeah your right about that.

but that is if Gerald Ford was president. If the watergate scandal never happened and if Richard Nixon were still president the U.S would re-deploy ground troops and resume bombing of north Vietnam.
 
No ground troops save for MACV-SOG or other Special Forces. Expect to see more air strikes by the USAF and the USN. I'm not sure if that is enough to save the RVN.
I am actually creating a scenario where during the north Vietnamese invasion of the south in 1975 president Gerald Ford is able to get congressional approval to re-deploy us special forces and the U.S Navy and Air Force after his speech on April 10th 1975 as well as a re-armament program for the ARVN. All of this is able to stall the the north Vietnamese advance.
 

marathag

Banned
I am actually creating a scenario where during the north Vietnamese invasion of the south in 1975 president Gerald Ford is able to get congressional approval to re-deploy us special forces and the U.S Navy and Air Force after his speech on April 10th 1975 as well as a re-armament program for the ARVN. All of this is able to stall the the north Vietnamese advance.
It's near impossible for Ford to get the House onboard with that, given Watergate happened as OTL.
The only way really would be to not only ignore the War Powers Act, but deliberately deny it. So the House cuts off most Military funding, and Starts Impeachment while US Airpower tries to replicate what it did in 1972, of doing the Job the US Military had always been planning for, how to stop a multi-Divisional sized mechanized invasion with Conventional Weapons. That how all the recent REFORGER Exercises mostly dealt with, a Conventional Fight in West Germany fending off Warsaw Pact armored Divisions. Now as the exercise went on, was always assumed that the WP would use Chemical Weapons eventually, along with Tac Nukes. But the start was always Conventional.

And even as bad as the US Armed Forces were at this time, USAF and Carrier Aviation were the most usable, and would be able to repeat what went on in 1972.

But even with a good US response with Airpower, South Vietnam is in a hell of a mess, much self inflicted by Thieu's orders to RVN forces to withdraw from outlying areas. This is was started the Rout. The North was surprised that their minor attacks resulted in total ARVN panic mid March. and total collapse in April. North expected this to take two years, not two months

So even with good Airpower and PAVN spearheads annihilated, resolve of the South is like Jello left in the hot sun.
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Could US Airpower be enough to keep ARVN forces at Hue and Da Nang for caving?
 
I am actually creating a scenario where during the north Vietnamese invasion of the south in 1975 president Gerald Ford is able to get congressional approval to re-deploy us special forces and the U.S Navy and Air Force after his speech on April 10th 1975 as well as a re-armament program for the ARVN. All of this is able to stall the the north Vietnamese advance.
Now that's an interesting scenario. This means the Vietnam War drags on to the 1980s.
It's near impossible for Ford to get the House onboard with that, given Watergate happened as OTL.
The only way really would be to not only ignore the War Powers Act, but deliberately deny it. So the House cuts off most Military funding, and Starts Impeachment while US Airpower tries to replicate what it did in 1972, of doing the Job the US Military had always been planning for, how to stop a multi-Divisional sized mechanized invasion with Conventional Weapons. That how all the recent REFORGER Exercises mostly dealt with, a Conventional Fight in West Germany fending off Warsaw Pact armored Divisions. Now as the exercise went on, was always assumed that the WP would use Chemical Weapons eventually, along with Tac Nukes. But the start was always Conventional.
Anti-war protests erupt just like the 1960s.

I wonder now how weapons development would occur here. IIRC, the F-16 Falcon entered service in 1978 and the first flight was in 1975? Same for the F-15s and F-14s which entered at this period. Would we also see newer weapons like the M1 Abrams and the M2 Bradley (which were still prototypes at this stage) be deployed to Vietnam? I know these vehicles were originally intended for Germany but with the U.S. military returning to Vietnam, it might see trial of fire here.

The Blackhawk would also fly alongside the Huey. Maybe add the AH-64 Apache alongside the Cobra to the mix.
And even as bad as the US Armed Forces were at this time, USAF and Carrier Aviation were the most usable, and would be able to repeat what went on in 1972.
Depending on the butterflies, the Thais would probably allow the U.S. to continue using U-Thapao Air Base. Relations between Bangkok and Washington soured after the Fall of Saigon. On a note, I wonder how this would affect the Thammasatt University Massacre in October 1976. That massacre was a result of suspected communists protesting and the student protesters were attacked by Royal Thai Army soldiers, policemen, and right-wing anti-communist vigilantes.

Subic Naval Base and Clark Air Base in the Philippines are nearby, which definitely could support carrier, USN/USMC aviation, and the USAF. The presence of Subic would mean America has a dagger pointed towards Hanoi.
 

marathag

Banned
uld we also see newer weapons like the M1 Abrams and the M2 Bradley
As it had been, ARVN rarely got first line gear, so had M41 and M48 tanks, never got the M60, and the F-5 Fighter and A-1 Skyraider,not F-4 and A-7.
Only way new weapons get in , if US forces go in. And similarly, US Armor units only had M48 in country.
All the 'good stuff was held for Europe.
 
Not as much, since the draft was gone, and most of the Hippies had started to move on with their lives. The '60s were over.
The 1970s was more of the gas crisis and counterterrorism since this was the time various terrorist groups started doing plane hijackings, bombings, and hostage situations. Examples include Entebbe and Munich.

In the Philippines, it would mark the beginning of Martial Law. The Chinese did a failed arms shipment to the NPA which would be one of the reasons why Marcos declared Martial Law. As this was happening, MNLF rebels launched an all-out war in Jolo, Basilan, and Tawi-Tawi. Filipino troops already left Vietnam in 1969 with only 9 KIA. So by the time they returned back to the Philippines, they had to face either the NPA or the MNLF. I doubt they would be redeployed back to Vietnam.

One butterfly here is Marcos probably does not recognize Hanoi. He did recognize Hanoi only when it was clear Saigon was going to fall to the NVA. Another is there may be no Vietnamese refugees in the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Japan since there won't be a huge displacement ITTL.
As it had been, ARVN rarely got first line gear, so had M41 and M48 tanks, never got the M60, and the F-5 Fighter and A-1 Skyraider,not F-4 and A-7.
Only way new weapons get in , if US forces go in. And similarly, US Armor units only had M48 in country.
All the 'good stuff was held for Europe.
Ironically, the ARVN was even better armed and equipped than the Armed Forces of the Philippines.

So in that case, the U.S. would like like to test newer weapons that entered in the late 70s/early 80s to Vietnam.

The M1 Abrams, M2 Bradley, A-10 Thunderbolt, and AH-64 were definitely going to West Germany since it was there the U.S. Army expected to fight waves of Soviet tanks going past the Fulda Gap.


This from other thread I made back then in July 2021:

And in my other thread from another AH forum:
There's two ways to look at this.

1. The US will be involved in the fighting actively the entire time. Say it continues until 1985.

A LOT of things that were developed in the late 70's and early 80's will not get developed or will be significantly later) due to fiscal restraints. If you're buying huge quantities of the stuff you're using right now in the war, that's what you continue using. A large chunk of the money you'd spend on R&D goes to operational expenses (paying for bombs, bullets, food, men and services). Yes, a lot of the weapons and systems that were deployed in the late 70's and early 80's had starting points in the 50's or 60's, but the money just won't be there.

Vietnam is NOT like WWII for the US. In WWII, the US happened to get lucky in that the generation of "stuff" they were tooling up to build or were building on December 7, 1941 was stuff they could fight the war with. It may have cost more in blood than the perfect version of it, but it worked. The stuff under development continued to be developed, because the US was both isolated from enemy action and had the economy to support both a mass army and the ability to build all the stuff while simultaneously paying for research. Case in point, the Manhattan project. 2 billion in 1945 dollars. Second case in point, aircraft types.

2. The US is NOT involved in the fighting and sloughs the burden of the pew pew part of the war onto the ARVN. The US provides a type of lend lease to RVN, which lowers operational costs significantly, which allows perhaps development but at a lesser rate.


A few things to also consider in the event of the US participating fully in combat -

The M-60 tank was difficult at best to run around the jungles and bridges of Vietnam, as I understand it. The M-48 weighed significantly less and was smaller and thus able to go places the larger tank couldn't. The M-1 is heavier, and I think, but am not certain, that it has higher ground pressure on its treads, meaning its more likely to sink in mud. I'm not sure about the Bradley, but its a pretty big chunk of equipment itself. Might have similar problems.

B-1 - I assume the point of using the B-1 would be to reduce losses from SAMs and fighters. Unless a much larger number were produced, I don't see them being used in a tactical situation. They were pretty much going to replace the B-52 in the nuclear strike role in SIOP, which would permit more B-52 strikes, I suppose.

B-2 - Probably not developed in this scenario due to cost.

A-10 - Tough plane, great gun, but if you can't see it, you can't really shoot it up. Ho chi min trail or in the thick jungles. There may have been a single squadron deployed for live fire testing, but the vast majority of those produced would go to Europe.

F-14 - This would have seen much enlarged production as it came into squadron service in 1974. It was not a ground attack platform as it was optimized for destroying massed soviet strategic bombers, but during a continued Vietnam war, it would have permitted the F-4 squadrons to focus on fighting the war, and the F-14 squadrons would have served with the carriers in the Med and the north Atlantic.

F-15 - Also air to air, so would have equipped squadrons as historically, but the planes replaced would have been sent to Vietnam, rather than the air national guard.

The Navy would likely have seen a reduction in everything but carrier construction and guided missile destroyer construction. I would assume that the continuation of a hot war for the US would involve a breakdown in negotiations, so you would likely see all the Iowa class ships reactivated and taking turns on the gun line. Perhaps even get all four of them together to bombard Haiphong.

I don't know enough about small arms to feel I should offer an opinion.

Belushi TD
 
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