What if the United States invades Brazil in 1942

What if the United States invades Brazil in 1942

The possibility that Brazil entered the Second World War with Germany was very worrying to he United States, because of its probable impact on the Atlantic navigation and the geographic location of the South American country, which represented an enormous potential strategic base for the Axis. This led the US military to design a plan of invasion that was called Plan Rubber which would see the occupation of the Northern coast of Brazil during World War II.

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In fact, this approach was first shaped by the so-called Rainbow Plan (1939), which sought to militarily secure the northwestern part of Brazil, because that area significantly shortened the distance traveled between America and Africa, apart from constituting a stopover towards the Pacific. The fact that at the head of the Brazilian government was a fascist dictator, Getulio Vargas , and that in 1941 he had denied the United States the establishment of its soldiers on the bases of its territory, by the North American and British obstacles in the supply of The weapons with which to modernize their backward army (which the Germans offered to do more efficiently), made the situation even more tense even though relations between the two nations had been cordial since the previous century (Brazil even participated in the First World War on the Allied side).

In reality, the Brazilian military was divided between alíádofilos (mainly the navy and the air force) and supporters of the Axis (land army and especially the one of the south part, that was where the bulk was congregated to defend the borders and where Most of the 1.5 million Brazilians of German descent lived).

For all this, after the attack on Pearl Harbor and, above all, when a Nazi plot in Uruguay came to light, “Plan Rubber,” ore the full title of the plan being "Joint Basic Plan for the Occupation of Northern Brazil [Joint], Serial 737 of 21 December 1941" was written which called for 64,000 United States Marines to land in Brazil and on an outlying island to secure the vital airfields. The primary target was the airport at Natal, the primary airfield in the transatlantic link. Other mainland targets were Salvador in the south and Belém in the north, and also Fernando de Noronha Island (an island in the middle of the ocean where, in addition, it was feared that the German navy would install a base For your U-boat operations).

The clear objective of the United States invasion of Brazil is evidenced from the following two maps:

Map I
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Map II

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The plan contemplated the artillery coverage of the battleship USS Texas and the aerial bombardment by aircraft operating from the aircraft carrier USS Ranger. The forces destined for the assault were the 1st and 5th Marine Division plus the 9th Infantry Division, which even came to conduct a drill in Virginia.

Because one thing was theory and another was practice. Except Salvador, which had large beaches, the rest of the sites had beaches too small and strongly hit by the sea or even belts of reefs that would hinder any amphibious operation, forcing the boats to leave the boats at a great distance from the shore (Up to 9 miles); Not to mention the fact that the landing points were very far from the cities and, therefore, from the airports, which were the objective after all. And then there was the geography, which would be another problem because urban areas used to be surrounded by easily defensible hills.

Brazil who navy could oppose the United States landing was little and outdated:

2 battleships: Minas Geraes and São Paulo.

2 light cruisers: Bahia and Rio Grande do Sul.

10 destroyers: Pará, Piaui, Amazonas, Mato Grosso, Rio Grande do Norte, Paraiba, Alagoas, Santa Catharina, Parana and Maranhão.

4 submarines: Tupy, Humaitá, Tymbira and Tamoyo.

The Brazil navy also was made up of other smaller ships, the Brazil Air force was made up of 330 aircraft but many of these were obsolete fighters and bombers. The number of aircraft that were reported as being in service at the time of Plan Rubber were as follows:

Fighters

Boeing 256 (export version of the Boeing F4B) - 14.

Boeing 69 (export version of the Boeing F2B) - 46.

Attack Bombers

Vultee V-11 Bomber - 18.

Vultee V-11 Torpedo Bomber - 12.

North American NA-44 - 6.

Fairey Gordon - 10.

The Brazilian Air Force was concentrated mainly in the south, but could be quickly mobilized and sent northward. In the regions to be seized.

The Brazilian Army could mobilize a total of 16,700 soldiers in the area (3,500 troops at Natal, 2,900 at Fortaleza, 5,500 at Recife, 3,500 at Salvador and 1,300 at Belém), in addition to those that moved from the south - with many problems, given the poor communications and territorial immensity. Likewise, the coastline was studded with sporadic and irregular defensive installations with 75 mm guns and machine guns; Fernando de Noronha which was a penal colony with only 65 guards, 600 inmates and 900 other inhabitants, but its airfield meant it could be reinforced rapidly by air. There were also a number of shore defense installations, but the status of these was largely unknown to United States planners, and indeed it is very difficult to get reliable information on them even today. It is known that the Brazilians had drawn up plans for defenses by mounting 12" and 6" guns, supported by mobile batteries with 75 mm guns and machine guns. Whether these were in place at the time Plan Rubber was due to start is a matter of some debate. However, the Brazilians were as aware as anyone of the limitations on littoral operations imposed by their geography and as such it is likely that, had word of Plan Rubber been leaked, that at least some form of defense would have awaited the attacking Americans

In the end it was not necessary to activate the Rubber Plan and, even with stripes and loops, diplomacy solved the issue. In December 1941 Undersecretary of State Welles succeeded in allowing Vargas to agree that in the Brazilian airfields there would be Marines disguised as mechanics with the mission of supervising and avoiding the penetration of Nazi agents. In exchange, Roosevelt authorized the export to the South American country of material, instructors and modern armament to definitively appeal to its military.
 
A massive coastline? A shit-ton of jungle and unfriendly terrain? An opponent people don’t know as much about? Sounds like a WW2 version of Vietnam. Baaaaaaad idea.
 
Think the second one @DominusNovus.

I say that is implausible enough that I won’t be able to offer many useful insights on the matter.

I would say that it would be a massive resource sink, even if all that was done was occupy the airfields and ports. The US generallu preferred to work indirectly in the Americas and kept direct military intervention very limited in scope. A big country like Brazil would be difficult
 
Are we assuming that Brazil actively supports the Axis in this scenario, or that the US invades worried that they do?
I'm pretty sure this is why the state department exists. Even if the US gives some ridiculous ultimatum that's designed to be rejected, there would be some kind of communication before the US says "lets invade lol"
 
I doubt very much that the US does this without some real evidence that Vargas is going to join the Axis, and of course no such evidence will be forthcoming because he had no such intentions. (I don't doubt that the US had contingency plans for the invasion of Brazil, but in fact military planners have contingency plans for some incredibly improbable events. In fact, if you're a military planner and you don't have contingency plans for some very unlikely events, you're not doing your job.)

Now on the other hand if the Integralists had come to power in the 1930's... https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/integralist-brazil.314876/#post-9093839
 
Wat, how do I missed this for so long :winkytongue:

Well.

In fact, this approach was first shaped by the so-called Rainbow Plan (1939), which sought to militarily secure the northwestern part of Brazil, because that area significantly shortened the distance traveled between America and Africa, apart from constituting a stopover towards the Pacific. The fact that at the head of the Brazilian government was a fascist dictator, Getulio Vargas , and that in 1941 he had denied the United States the establishment of its soldiers on the bases of its territory, by the North American and British obstacles in the supply of The weapons with which to modernize their backward army (which the Germans offered to do more efficiently), made the situation even more tense even though relations between the two nations had been cordial since the previous century (Brazil even participated in the First World War on the Allied side).

Vargas was actually a center left dictator with a big tent government, however, he even purged the fascists (quite brutally I must say, you don't want to know the details).

In reality, the Brazilian military was divided between alíádofilos (mainly the navy and the air force) and supporters of the Axis (land army and especially the one of the south part, that was where the bulk was congregated to defend the borders and where Most of the 1.5 million Brazilians of German descent lived).

The amount of axis support in Brazil was greatly exagerated due the brown scare in the USA, this link in portuguese talks a bit about it, prior to Vargas takeover Brazil was deeply inside the US sphere of influence, this changed when Vargas and his americanophile minister of exterior and ambassador to Washington developed the main brazilian diplomatic doctrine, the pragmatic equidistance (that was also under effect during the JK, Jango and Janio Governments (1955-1964), the dictatorship of Ernesto Geisel (1974-1980) and the worker's party rule in brazil (2002-2016) ). Brazil began to trade with all sides and to break away more and more from the american sphere of influence, thus provoking the first dominoes that later resulted in the pro USA faction of the army couping the government in 1945 and removing Vargas, and a series of other coups, anyway, there was a understandable scare in the USA for that policy and since Vargas became a dictator in 1937 this amplified the problems, but Vargas himself was a americanophile, he tried to keep closer ties with the USA over germany for pragmatic reasons, the US could protect ours and their trade liens in the atlantic, Germany couldn't. By 1940 the germans got replaced by the british too as our 2nd diplomatic partners, leaving any chance of a axis Brazil to die.

The Brazilian Army could mobilize a total of 16,700 soldiers in the area (3,500 troops at Natal, 2,900 at Fortaleza, 5,500 at Recife, 3,500 at Salvador and 1,300 at Belém), in addition to those that moved from the south - with many problems, given the poor communications and territorial immensity. Likewise, the coastline was studded with sporadic and irregular defensive installations with 75 mm guns and machine guns; Fernando de Noronha which was a penal colony with only 65 guards, 600 inmates and 900 other inhabitants, but its airfield meant it could be reinforced rapidly by air. There were also a number of shore defense installations, but the status of these was largely unknown to United States planners, and indeed it is very difficult to get reliable information on them even today. It is known that the Brazilians had drawn up plans for defenses by mounting 12" and 6" guns, supported by mobile batteries with 75 mm guns and machine guns. Whether these were in place at the time Plan Rubber was due to start is a matter of some debate. However, the Brazilians were as aware as anyone of the limitations on littoral operations imposed by their geography and as such it is likely that, had word of Plan Rubber been leaked, that at least some form of defense would have awaited the attacking Americans

Now to the scenario: if the USA invades, Vargas resigns (or kill himself, becoming a martyr like in OTL) and no resistence happens. The USA occupies the northeast and puts some random pro US general as a satrap to rule until the end of the war and the elections return with the end of the conflict. There is no chance for Brazil to push the americans back and the government know that, so they unique possible solution is to surrender to prevent damage and to be crushed under the US boot until a oportunity rises to start rebuilding our soberanity.
 
OTOH even if successfull it would poison USA-Brazil relations for quite a long term. Any cance for communist or at least pro soviet Brazil as a consequence later?
 
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Where does Brazil gets the supply needed for Vietnam style asymmetric warfare from?

I dunno...Hitler yoinks some from the Soviets and sends it to Brazil to bog the Yanks down? I mean, I assume Hitler had a few coherent thoughts of wartime strategy at some point, and he could rustle them up from somewhere.
 
Where does Brazil gets the supply needed for Vietnam style asymmetric warfare from?

I dunno...Hitler yoinks some from the Soviets and sends it to Brazil to bog the Yanks down? I mean, I assume Hitler had a few coherent thoughts of wartime strategy at some point, and he could rustle them up from somewhere.

We don't. The brazilian people are known for not resisting to occupation. At the very best Vargas can send the leader of the secret police, Filinto Muller, to stock guns somewhere in the amazonia and use as a way to keep harassing the US convoys.

OTOH even if successfull it would poison USA-Brazil relations for quite a long term. Any cance for communist or at least pro soviet Brazil as a consequence later?

Nope. The US installs a pro US dictator and done, he puts a fully pro US cabinet, maybe he can even keep the americanophile foreign minister Oswaldo Aranha at his position and done, good relations for the time being. The brazilian elite wouldn't care, they disliked Vargas and probably would even see this a gift: "Hey, did you see? We got a US appointed dictator, that is gracefull, brazilians are inferior and shouldn't be ruled by one of us."
 
The military forces and equipment that Brazil has are of little use; all are obsolete or obsolescent at best. The Brazilian navy was notorious for not maintaining its vessels, so most are stuck in port.
The air force sounds like a joke, about 100 operational aircraft, and the best of them is the Vultee V-11; Hap Arnold is not going to get too worried about his opposition.
16K+ troops spread across the province aren't going to be a problem either. Training and equipment are poor.

But as others have said, why waste resources when you can get the State Department do the work for you. I'ts pretty obvious that Vargas could be bought off.

If the US if forced to invade, they occupy the areas around the ports and airfields they want and establish a perimeter far enough out to prevent artillery fire from bothering their operations, just like what the US did on New
Britain or Bougainville. I agree with what Gukpard says, the US will find someone within the Brazilian military to bump off Vargas and work with the US on what is needed.
 
OTOH even if successfull it would poison USA-Brazil relations for quite a long term. Any cance for communist or at least pro soviet Brazil as a consequence later?

I'll agree with @Gukpard on this, but in a slightly different manner. Since Brazil's own Estado Novo managed to destroy most independent power bases which could challenge Vargas, and during the 1930s the Communists were in a period of steep decline to begin with, it would be extremely difficult if not impossible to have the Communists to have any power in Brazil in those times. (It also didn't help that IOTL the Communists decided to go briefly pro-Nazi for some reason, which obviously did not sit well with other sectors of the Communists which were also anti-Nazi.) What would therefore happen ITTL in this case is that the Communists in Brazil would quietly disappear from the scene and any energy that would have gone into the Communists IOTL would be diverted elsewhere. What could happen, however, as a result of this would probably be a reorganization of the Brazilian socialist movement, integrating many former Vargas supporters, along Aprista lines like elsewhere in Latin America outside Brazil, and in this case the old PSD/PTB division of Vargas' power base could probably prove useful in this regard.
 
I'll agree with @Gukpard on this, but in a slightly different manner. Since Brazil's own Estado Novo managed to destroy most independent power bases which could challenge Vargas, and during the 1930s the Communists were in a period of steep decline to begin with, it would be extremely difficult if not impossible to have the Communists to have any power in Brazil in those times. (It also didn't help that IOTL the Communists decided to go briefly pro-Nazi for some reason, which obviously did not sit well with other sectors of the Communists which were also anti-Nazi.) What would therefore happen ITTL in this case is that the Communists in Brazil would quietly disappear from the scene and any energy that would have gone into the Communists IOTL would be diverted elsewhere. What could happen, however, as a result of this would probably be a reorganization of the Brazilian socialist movement, integrating many former Vargas supporters, along Aprista lines like elsewhere in Latin America outside Brazil, and in this case the old PSD/PTB division of Vargas' power base could probably prove useful in this regard.

I couldn't agree more, this could lead to a alternative populist Republic, with the us sponsored estabilishment deindustrializating brazil and reinstating the banana republic of the old Republic while the ptb/PSD coalition would try to resist this process while working with Vargas nostalgia.
 
Where does Brazil gets the supply needed for Vietnam style asymmetric warfare from?

Also, why is the US being relatively restrained in this scenario? In WW2 the US was bombing cities left and right without worrying at all about casualties. Brazil either surrenders or gets blown to Hell and back. The Russians not only don't care, but they are also cheering us on.
 
Why would Brazil join the Axis to begin with?


This too, even pro axis figures on Vargas cabinet like Francisco Campos and Eurico Dutra wanted Brazil to remain NEUTRAL, not in any circunstances to join the axis because it is impossible for Germany to have presence in Brazil due the complete allied control of the atlantic.
 
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