What if the UK of Portugal, Brazil and Algarves survived to the present day?

[John I of Brazil]

it would be Portugal who would separate from an alternate Brazilian Empire (basically Brazil + African Colonies)

Probably, yes.

The main problem I see is that no one wanted to feel like the "tail of the dog", thus both the Portuguese and Brazilians wanted to be head of the Empire.

That was more of Portugal's fear than Brazil's. The Brazilians didn't care that much when the royal family went back to Portugal. What they really wanted was simply equal representation. It was an United Kingdom, and both countries still had roughly the same population, so they should be equals.

Meanwhile, the portuguese elites wanted to return to the colonial model, when Brazil was completely subservient to portuguese interests.

An Empire located at Lisbon probably wouldn't care about Uruguay, or the Platine Basin in general

Well, Portugal considered that as an strategic and important region even before the change of capital (the amount of times the portuguese tried to take Uruguay and the platine base is surprisingly high).

And an Empire located at Rio, probably wouldn't care about European

Yes, that's sure. A lusitan empire with a capital in Brazil wouldn't have to deal with the same existential threads European Portugal did, for they would be in a safer position, so at most they'd try to be stay far away from European conflicts so their European territories don't get threatened by other country.

or even African affairs. So probably not Pink Map

You are only kind of right. Brazil was actually more connected to Africa and to the portuguese colonial empire than Portugal herself. Angola, specially, acted as an extension of Brazil, to the point where some communities there even tried to join Brazil when she became independent.

However, an intact United Kingdom of Portugal, Brazil and the Algarves would be much more focused on protecting their current borders than expanding it, because, without Brazil leaving the empire, there would be no drive to regain any prestige or riches, because they didn't lost anything. That is, unless the later rulers of the empire get very ambitious.

 

[Taunay]

I have the feeling that if it isn't Brazil the one that separated from the Portuguese Empire, it would be Portugal who would separate from an alternate Brazilian Empire (basically Brazil + African Colonies). The Portuguese Cortes would probably elect a new King or even declare a Republic.

... and the Brazilians would reconquer Portugal. With British backing.
OTL was a fluke, it took a (very bad) set of events for Brazil to become independent. In any other TL, it was always more likely for Brazil to remain in the United Kingdom.
They would rather have the United Kingdom than to have a Portuguese republic that could ally itself with Napoleon or any other British rival.

 

[Diego]

An Empire located at Lisbon probably wouldn't care about Uruguay, or the Platine Basin in general, and Brazil wouldn't have made the gains they did in OTL (like Acre, the border from Paraguay, the border from Ecuador, etc.).

I disagree, the fact that Brazil was enlarged was much more a result of its diplomatic corps decisions and skills than any strategic plan of Rio de Janeiro, or any will of the people, since both never cared much about what was happening at the borders of the country. I also must point out that the historical precedent is against the quote, as Portugal conquered Cisplatina and Brazil lost it, in good part because the Brazillian People and political elites didn't care about that region, with the obvious exception of the people of Rio Grande do Sul that was a lot more invested in the question.

 

[holycookie]

I disagree, the fact that Brazil was enlarged was much more a result of its diplomatic corps decisions and skills than any strategic plan of Rio de Janeiro, or any will of the people, since both never cared much about what was happening at the borders of the country. I also must point out that the historical precedent is against the quote, as Portugal conquered Cisplatina and Brazil lost it,

right at otl the Brazilian navy dominated the sea, with the army not managing to remove the argentines from the region. The reason for this is that the army is worn out from fighting a rebellion due to the emperor (a Portuguese) tearing up the constitution causing part of the congress to take up arms (the war at otl between argentina and brazil just didn't escalate more due to english intervention). The first emperor was expelled from the country shortly after the loss of the cisplatin (Uruguay). With Brazil interfering in the region constantly after that. The second emperor (the Brazilian) interfered a lot in the region.

in good part because the Brazillian People and political elites didn't care about that region, with the obvious exception of the people of Rio Grande do Sul that was a lot more invested in the question.

So this is very wrong, the biggest war in south america literally took place because of this region. the region was vital to brazil, with brazil constantly supporting coups in uruguay;

 

[TheWitheredStriker]

Hi there! I know this thread is decently old, but I don't see one of those "This thread is X months old, your reply may be deemed spam" banners anywhere, so I assume it should be fine. If not, my bad!

I'd love to nail a surviving UK of P/B/A as well, but even on the first page of the thread, I see two conflicting PoDs: Either João VI dies earlier or he lives longer.

Which one of those two would work better, if any? If neither PoD works, what about keeping this guy alive?