I wonder about that. Afghanistan almost certainly still happens, but without a successful hit on the White House or Capitol I have my doubts that Iraq can still be justified in the way it was. It would certainly be easy to write a TL in which the reduced visual impact and death toll is enough to make Bush's (very similar to OTL) attempts to push war in Iraq a major defeat for the administration, and quite possibly a major issue in the 2004 election.
Assuming Saddam still tries to stop weapons inspectors like OTL I'm assuming there will still be some sort of conflict with Iraq but a ground war is very unlikely without OTL 9/11. My money is Bush would have run Desert Fox 2.0.