What if the Turks managed to conquer Vienna

Let's say that, for some reason, John Sobieski refuses to help the Austrians in 1683. The Ottomans annex Vienna and some surrounding land from the Austrians and bring Vienna into Royal Hungary, which is annexed into a vassal Hungary. Then what?

Parts of Austria are still free; only the territory of Vienna and land immediately around it are brought under Turkish rule

Bonus Points if you can give an explanation for Poland to not join the war without drastically changing the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth
 
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Let's say that, for some reason, John Sobieski refuses to help the Austrians in 1683.

This would not necessarily guarantee a fall of Vienna. His troops amounted to slightly more than a third of the combined force (without a garrison) and Charles of Lorraine was a very capable general so there would be a non-zero chance of a failed siege even without a spectacular victory in a battle.


The Ottomans annex Vienna and some surrounding land from the Austrians and bring Vienna into Royal Hungary, which is annexed into a vassal Hungary. Then what?

IIRC, the Ottoman's (or at least Kara Mustafa's) idea was to take Vienna, fill Sultan's coffers with a loot and create a puppet "Kingdom of Vienna" with Imre Thököly as a king (or whatever). No long term Ottoman occupation. Strictly speaking, the whole episode with a siege of Vienna was deviation from an earlier accepted plan which was making the 1st priority sieges and capture of the fortresses on Hungarian border: Kara Mustafa did not even inform sultan until it was too late to recall him. It is anybody's guess if Kara Mustafa's army would remain in a theater for the next campaign in the case of success at Vienna. Most probably it would not.

On the other side we still have an imperial army led by Charles of Lorraine with a high chance that the Ottomans are going to be defeated. After all, defeat at Vienna in OTL did not mean a complete extermination of their army and the imperial forces had to fight hard to conquer Hungary. Chances are that they'd still be able to do more or less the same in AH.

Bonus Points if you can give an explanation for Poland to not join the war without drastically changing the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth

This is simple: a pro-French party wins, Sobiesky does not get money from the Sejm and the PLC is not joining the League. Or you can try something more "exotic" (but much less likely) like Sobieski getting Sejm's approval for campaign against Prussia.
 
I have a feeling it would make long term control of the Balkans a much easier affair as it’s a very defensible spot, but at the same time, they would be prevented from ever progressing beyond that bottleneck.
 
Let's say that, for some reason, John Sobieski refuses to help the Austrians in 1683. The Ottomans annex Vienna and some surrounding land from the Austrians and bring Vienna into Royal Hungary, which is annexed into a vassal Hungary. Then what?

Parts of Austria are still free; only the territory of Vienna and land immediately around it are brought under Turkish rule

Bonus Points if you can give an explanation for Poland to not join the war without drastically changing the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth

If Vienna falls...

The city gets wrecked and not able to return to the position it had before the siege for the next 25-50 years. But that doesn matter too much. The Habsburgs may relocate to Linz or Prague, depending on whomever they found less threatening (Bavaria, Brandenburg).

The Ottomans try to take over Habsburg Hungary and give some lands to their Hungarian Vassal. In this case Preßburg and Vienna to Imre Thököly. Koszeg, Zagreb etc go to Ottoman administration. In an even more ideal situation, Slovenia is conquered as well. This basically to secure the Western Balkans and within the range to hit Dalmatia and Venice if there would be a new war.

More conquest of Austria is unlikely or just not gonna happen. Vienna is the border. At best some minor raids between Vienna and Linz.

Depending on what the Habsburgs are gonna do, will also decide what France will do. In this case renew the war or wait a bit longer.
 
If the border will be set in Austria Ottomans could use Carinthia as a way to attack Venice and threat Norther Italy?
Also this will influence Polish elections and maybe in 1697 Prince of Conti (who wanted peace with Ottoms and was hostile to Russian Empire) will be able to defend his rightful Crown with French and Ottoman support against Frederick Augustus of Saxony.
And if Hasburg lost their credibility together with Vienna what about the Austrian Succession War? Maybe Bavaria will be able to take the big prize?
 
If the border will be set in Austria Ottomans could use Carinthia as a way to attack Venice and threat Norther Italy?

To start with, they'd be having serious problems defending their new acquisition and I would not bet on their chances to do so successfully even for the next few years: army of the anti-Ottoman coalition, even without the PLC, was strong and competently led (soon after Vienna Sobieski left with his army and Charles of Lorraine reconquered Hungary on his own). OTOH, to defend their new acquisition the Ottomans would have to leave there a strong garrison with a resulting negative impact on their field operations so the conquest of Venice and Northern Italy would be rather low on the list of their priorities.

Also this will influence Polish elections and maybe in 1697 Prince of Conti (who wanted peace with Ottoms and was hostile to Russian Empire) will be able to defend his rightful Crown with French and Ottoman support against Frederick Augustus of Saxony.

I hate to do this but there was no "Russian Empire" in 1697.

Loss of Vienna, even if the following counter-offensive is not as successful as in OTL would not remove Hapsburgs from European political game and, unless there is a much earlier peace, situation is the same: candidate of the Hapsburgs and Tsardom of Moscow vs. pro-French candidate who (a) was not too eager to take the crown and (b) did not have his own military force to support his claim.

And if Hasburg lost their credibility together with Vienna what about the Austrian Succession War? Maybe Bavaria will be able to take the big prize?

1st, loss of Vienna would not mean loss of "credibility", whatever it is supposed to mean. 2nd, there are quite a few things happening between this event and the War of Austrian Succession: War of the Spanish Succession, GNW, War of the Polish Succession.
 
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