What if the Spanish Flu started in 1914?

Cook

Banned
In OTL the Spanish Flu lasted roughly from March 1918 to June 1920, killing somewhere between 50 and 100 million people, being most lethal in young adults.

What if it arrived four years early?

The step off point is the Spanish Flu hitting Europe in March 1914 and runnning until June 1916.
 
IIRC is it not thought to have come from the US with the GIs ?

I suppose it could come over with the Lafayette lot ? That would make it French Flu, and the first victims are going to be the US airmen, and the French...

...which could lead to the collapse of the Western Front and a German victory even if the Germans soon end up infected themselves

It was after all an Allied-origin flu so will always hit them first

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
IIRC is it not thought to have come from the US with the GIs ?

I suppose it could come over with the Lafayette lot ? That would make it French Flu, and the first victims are going to be the US airmen, and the French...

...which could lead to the collapse of the Western Front and a German victory even if the Germans soon end up infected themselves

It was after all an Allied-origin flu so will always hit them first

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

I remember reading somewhere that the first mass outbreak was in an US Army base somewhere in - Midwest? Not sure about this. Anyway, is such a massive outbreak possible if the same mutation happens 4 years earlier, or is a mass mobilization of the US Army absolutely necessary to spread the virus? In the latter case the flu remains locally contained, possibly until 1917 - and AFAIK it won't be nearly as lethal by that point.

Of course all that is necessary are a few infected persons traveling to Europe, but the spread pattern will be different.
 
Well, if the flu breaks out in March of 1914, thhat would be before the start of World War One. So it's possible that since the flu affects young people the most, and young people are the ones who fought the war, perhapse the leading countries in the war would be to preoccupied with containing the outbreak to go to war?

The thing is, I'm not sure if this stops the war, of just puts it off for a few more years. On the one hand, after going through such a tragedy, even the most patriotic people might not want to go to war an see more people die. But on the other hand, Europe was a bomb waiting to explode. I'm not sure if an earlier flu would stop it going off.
 
Well, if the flu breaks out in March of 1914, thhat would be before the start of World War One. So it's possible that since the flu affects young people the most, and young people are the ones who fought the war, perhapse the leading countries in the war would be to preoccupied with containing the outbreak to go to war?
Either that or some countries that are not immediately affected by the flue, attack those that are.

Remember, this is 1914. The speed such a flue would have spread is slower than today.
 

The Vulture

Banned
First outbreak was at Fort Riley in Kansas, IIRC.

If it starts in Europe, the war might be far more low key if it happens at all- fought with battalions rather than corps. Some fumbling around, some concessions made, a very limited war that is over in a few months.
 
It’s quite possible with three to four months lead time the outbreak causes the military maneuvers that took the Archduke to Sarajevo will be postponed or canceled outright. If that’s the case and nothing else rocks the boat during the first six months or so I doubt anybody will be all that willing or even simply able to go to war until at least 1917-18 at the earliest.
 
Pretty much, I suspect. With half the Army sick , no-one's going to be keen to declare war. Even if half the enemy's army is also sick . On such trivia depends the fate of Empires.
 

Cook

Banned
A 10% fatality rate is hardly trivial.
I was thinking along the same lines.
Also the fact that the flu would have hit Europe in Peace time means that the news would not have been stopped by wartime censorship.
 
People are far more healthy as they have proper diet etc so resistence will build up quicker
Actually that means more people will die. The very robustness of youthful immune systems is why the death toll was so high in youth. Their bodies killed themselves by fighting the flu so hard.
Also the fact that the flu would have hit Europe in Peace time means that the news would not have been stopped by wartime censorship.
But wouldn't travel be less restricted? It might cancel each other out somewhat by spreading it along with the news or even before the news is discovered as being serious. Say some American tourists or something did Europe.

I'd tend to think Russia would be less affected.
 
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