What if the Spanish conquer Ming China?

Occuring about the same time as the Manchu invasions or concurrently a massive Spanish host sets sail and by 1660 reaches the Phililpines.

The Ming empire is declining and in chaos-with rival warlords, Manchu and Mongol raiders, and the Japanese having invaded earlier and still holding Korea and the northeastern Chinese coast.

The Spanish make landfall by 1664 and and crush the local coastal garrisons.

By 1670 they have secured the coast around Beijing and pushed deeper into the heartland.

Plausible?
The Manchu had already reached South China in the 1660s so that's going to necessitate something different.

The Ming weren't in decline in the 1660s, they were wiped off of the map before 1664. The Yongli Emperor had to flee to Burma and still got executed in 1662. So you'd have to bump the date up another decade for it to still be the Ming.

Again, the Ming weren't falling to warlords, but the whole matter is just be repeating myself so I'll refrain.

The Japanese invasions would have to go a very different route for them to hold Korea, let alone NE China (they occupied and lost the entire peninsula very quickly and that's not just because of Admiral Yi. Other naval commanders who contributed to the campaign would accomplish a similar, though maybe lesser, effect. Plus the militant Buddhist monks, the Righteous Armies, and the Joseon army itself stabilizing from the shock of the invasion would have to be dealt with). That much wouldn't be one or two PODs but rather a whole series of them, with the Joseon king being captured/dying, the Ming not helping, then the Japanese getting hold of some decent naval commanders, not angering the countryside, and keeping stable through Toyotomi Hideyoshi's death.

What is often overlooked is the fact that Japan is still technically in the Sengoku Jidai during the Imjin War, which arguably laid the foundation for the Tokugawa victory less than a decade later (because the war soured daimyos like Kato Kiyomasa, Fukushima Masanori, and Hideaki Kobayakawa to the Toyotomi cause due to Ishida Mitsuhara and his (perceived) poor treatment of them during the war, like not giving them credit for their successes and getting them recalled). They have until Toyotomi Hideyoshi dies to win (he was already old and died in 1597, not many butterflies are going to keep him alive for much longer), otherwise there really is no great support for continuing to bleed out in Korea. After that, there's also the matter of succession and if the Council of Five Elders can actually keep Tokugawa Ieyasu (who didn't send any troops to Korea so his armies are unscathed) from seizing power. If anything, Korea might erupt into warlords, since the daimyos on the mainland would probably be Toyotomi loyalists (they'd get land from Hideyoshi or Ishida) who'd try to support the Toyotomi but not be able to send aid to the home islands due to geting bogged down in governing Korea, where Joseon loyalists are going to be lurking about for a while. So it'd be the Toyotomi hiding out in Korea while daimyos fighting amongst themselves and the locals and the Joseon are in exile either in northern Korea or the Liaodong peninsula.

In any case, I'd mark Japan actually getting ahold of any parts of China VERY unlikely, just due to the power dynamics and instability of the Toyotomi regime, not to mention the costs of holding the peninsula against guerilla warfare. Just because they win the war doesn't mean that baby Hideyori, age <6, is going to be able to retain power with Tokugawa Ieyasu and co. in power and the islands divided.

Also for malaria, it's only a problem in more tropical countries. Isn't Beijing or Nanjing too far north for that?
For the travel, they'd be on the sea most of the time so no mosquitoes
They'd have to have the troops get on land occasionally though. If they're going to amass troops, the Philippines is the closest place they can have tens of thousands of troops at and that's quite tropical.

Also, there's the issue of timing. The Portuguese fleets had to get the timing right for their India runs so that they'd get favourable winds and not end up at the bottom of the sea. The Spanish have to do the same with a much longer distance (thousands of kilos more) with much larger fleets with more hazardous weather (imagine landing in typhoon season). Imagine the Spanish Armada but going to China instead.

That's also considering that the Spanish economy can afford war for decades across two or three continents (since they'll be fighting the Dutch, French, Ottomans, presumably Barbary pirates as well since those are actually very much in Spain's interest to subdue in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa). Spain managed to go bankrupt 9 times under King Philip even with their treasure fleets so there's that to consider.

Also, there were the massive plague outbreaks in Spain in the 17th century (1596–1602, 1646–1652, 1676–1685), which tanked Spain's population growth.
From A brief history of epidemic and pestilential diseases; with the principal phenomena of the physical world, which precede and accompany them, and observations deduced from the facts stated:
"THE year 1600 was remarkable for pestilence in almost every part of Europe. Spain, where the disease was fatal the year before, was this year almost depopulated. There raged throughout Europe, a pestilential, mortal cholic which destroyed the lives of all whom it seized, within four days. The patient, as soon as he was seized, became senseless—the hair fell from his head—a livid pustule arose on the nose, which consumed it— the extremities became cold and mortified."
"The year 1648 appears to have been less sickly, in London; but in the south of Europe, malignant diseases were the harbingers of the plague, which in 1649 carried off 200,000 people in the southern provinces of Spain. "

Around 1.25 million people died of plague in Spain during the outbreaks, which is about 20% of the population. Half of that was just from the 1599 outbreak but it's still a massive loss right there.

Made worse of course by constant troop movement as a result of the 30 Years' War but disease, not limited to malaria, would be a massive thing to consider in an invasion across the world with tens of thousands of troops in cramped spaces in a time when plague ravaged the home country. China would also suffer from plague in the fall of the Ming, it appears, so that would be another consideration.

@ar-pharazon, I've made my stance on the whole matter pretty clear, I think, so any further nit-picking is probably excessive. The most constructive thing I can say is that the timings of your wank need to be adjusted, seeing as some are physically impossible (the Ming were gone by the 1660s so you can't invade them in the 1670s) and others have some larger issues (plague, Japanese stability, manpower). It'd need a much earlier POD, I think, at which point you could probably make up anything. But 1570s is a bit too late, I'd say.
 
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ar-pharazon

Banned
The Manchu had already reached South China in the 1660s so that's going to necessitate something different.

The Ming weren't in decline in the 1660s, they were wiped off of the map before 1664. The Yongli Emperor had to flee to Burma and still got executed in 1662. So you'd have to bump the date up another decade for it to still be the Ming.

Again, the Ming weren't falling to warlords, but the whole matter is just be repeating myself so I'll refrain.

The Japanese invasions would have to go a very different route for them to hold Korea, let alone NE China (they occupied and lost the entire peninsula very quickly and that's not just because of Admiral Yi. Other naval commanders who contributed to the campaign would accomplish a similar, though maybe lesser, effect. Plus the militant Buddhist monks, the Righteous Armies, and the Joseon army itself stabilizing from the shock of the invasion would have to be dealt with). That much wouldn't be one or two PODs but rather a whole series of them, with the Joseon king being captured/dying, the Ming not helping, then the Japanese getting hold of some decent naval commanders, not angering the countryside, and keeping stable through Toyotomi Hideyoshi's death.

What is often overlooked is the fact that Japan is still technically in the Sengoku Jidai during the Imjin War, which arguably laid the foundation for the Tokugawa victory less than a decade later (because the war soured daimyos like Kato Kiyomasa, Fukushima Masanori, and Hideaki Kobayakawa to the Toyotomi cause due to Ishida Mitsuhara and his (perceived) poor treatment of them during the war, like not giving them credit for their successes and getting them recalled). They have until Toyotomi Hideyoshi dies to win (he was already old and died in 1597, not many butterflies are going to keep him alive for much longer), otherwise there really is no great support for continuing to bleed out in Korea. After that, there's also the matter of succession and if the Council of Five Elders can actually keep Tokugawa Ieyasu (who didn't send any troops to Korea so his armies are unscathed) from seizing power. If anything, Korea might erupt into warlords, since the daimyos on the mainland would probably be Toyotomi loyalists (they'd get land from Hideyoshi or Ishida) who'd try to support the Toyotomi but not be able to send aid to the home islands due to geting bogged down in governing Korea, where Joseon loyalists are going to be lurking about for a while. So it'd be the Toyotomi hiding out in Korea while daimyos fighting amongst themselves and the locals and the Joseon are in exile either in northern Korea or the Liaodong peninsula.

In any case, I'd mark Japan actually getting ahold of any parts of China VERY unlikely, just due to the power dynamics and instability of the Toyotomi regime, not to mention the costs of holding the peninsula against guerilla warfare. Just because they win the war doesn't mean that baby Hideyori, age <6, is going to be able to retain power with Tokugawa Ieyasu and co. in power and the islands divided.


They'd have to have the troops get on land occasionally though. If they're going to amass troops, the Philippines is the closest place they can have tens of thousands of troops at and that's quite tropical.

Also, there's the issue of timing. The Portuguese fleets had to get the timing right for their India runs so that they'd get favourable winds and not end up at the bottom of the sea. The Spanish have to do the same with a much longer distance (thousands of kilos more) with much larger fleets with more hazardous weather (imagine landing in typhoon season). Imagine the Spanish Armada but going to China instead.

That's also considering that the Spanish economy can afford war for decades across two or three continents (since they'll be fighting the Dutch, French, Ottomans, presumably Barbary pirates as well since those are actually very much in Spain's interest to subdue in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa). Spain managed to go bankrupt 9 times under King Philip even with their treasure fleets so there's that to consider.

Also, there were the massive plague outbreaks in Spain in the 17th century (1596–1602, 1646–1652, 1676–1685), which tanked Spain's population growth.
From A brief history of epidemic and pestilential diseases; with the principal phenomena of the physical world, which precede and accompany them, and observations deduced from the facts stated:
"THE year 1600 was remarkable for pestilence in almost every part of Europe. Spain, where the disease was fatal the year before, was this year almost depopulated. There raged throughout Europe, a pestilential, mortal cholic which destroyed the lives of all whom it seized, within four days. The patient, as soon as he was seized, became senseless—the hair fell from his head—a livid pustule arose on the nose, which consumed it— the extremities became cold and mortified."
"The year 1648 appears to have been less sickly, in London; but in the south of Europe, malignant diseases were the harbingers of the plague, which in 1649 carried off 200,000 people in the southern provinces of Spain. "

Around 1.25 million people died of plague in Spain during the outbreaks, which is about 20% of the population. Half of that was just from the 1599 outbreak but it's still a massive loss right there.

Made worse of course by constant troop movement as a result of the 30 Years' War but disease, not limited to malaria, would be a massive thing to consider in an invasion across the world with tens of thousands of troops in cramped spaces in a time when plague ravaged the home country. China would also suffer from plague in the fall of the Ming, it appears, so that would be another consideration.

@ar-pharazon, I've made my stance on the whole matter pretty clear, I think, so any further nit-picking is probably excessive. The most constructive thing I can say is that the timings of your wank need to be adjusted, seeing as some are physically impossible (the Ming were gone by the 1660s so you can't invade them in the 1670s) and others have some larger issues (plague, Japanese stability, manpower). It'd need a much earlier POD, I think, at which point you could probably make up anything. But 1570s is a bit too late, I'd say.
I assumed the Ming were more long lasting, the Japanese still held a mainland foothold and a Victoria espania situation in Europe and the middle east-spain had crushed all enemies and basically ruled Europe.

So I made some assumptions before going with the scenario of the massive host sailing across the pacific or Indian oceans.
 
An attack on China would hurt the Spanish economy as they would be blocked from trade with China.

This is one of the main reasons I think Spain even with an even larger victory disease than IOTL wouldn't attack China itself. Slowly subverting China to Catholicism over the decades, OTOH, is something I see a more rational Spanish court would do.
 
Well there are roughly two possibilities:

1. Spain establishes a relatively short lived rule and is soon driven out. That is what you are suggesting and certainly very plausible. But I would have to think that a foreign power conquering China from the sea, even if briefly, would have major repercussions for Chinese and world history.

2. Spanish rule endures as it establishes something sort of like the British Raj in China that lasts a few centuries. This would make Spain like OTL British Empire but a few centuries earlier as the riches of Spanish controlled China fuel further conquests and make Spain a superpower.

Both are interesting possilities.
The Raj didn't last "a few centuries". It lasted more or less 150 years, from the end of the 18th century to the end of WW2. And this was, keep it in mind, against a collapsing, divided entity, and with better technology and logistics.

You argument just falls apart in sheer ignorance of the same examples you bring out.
 
The Raj didn't last "a few centuries". It lasted more or less 150 years, from the end of the 18th century to the end of WW2. And this was, keep it in mind, against a collapsing, divided entity, and with better technology and logistics.

You argument just falls apart in sheer ignorance of the same examples you bring out.
If we're gonna go and nitpick, technically 150 years is more than a century and kinda qualifies as few.
It's also forgetting the strong presence of a British state since the late XVIIIth century although it wasn't technically the crown.
 
No, lack of vitamin C cause scurvy. As long as balanced diet prepared with fresh food is consumed, scurvy can be prevented. Lack of knowledge on scurvy did not result a large number of people died on land. Scurvy at sea was the result of the lack of a vitamin C rich but non-perishable item that can be stored for long during sea trips. The high no. of ports of call (i.e. the Blue parts in the map below)available to the Spanish fleet due to the Iberian Union in the 1600s should be sufficient to support a trip that can allow resupply of fresh food:

800px-Spanish_Empire_Anachronous_en.svg.png


A relatively small amount Vit C is sufficient.

Also, the Spanish and their friends knew about the importance of fresh produces:



My point is, the network of ports that Spain possessed in 1600s allowed a trip relatively free of scurvy as long as frequent stops is allowed.

As for malaria, Spain gained knowledge on cinchona at this period of time too:



Reference:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vitamin_C
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_malaria
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Empire
My point is that it’s very likely that the organization of the campaign would be a complete clusterfuck,especially the logistics aspect. Some governor in some place might not give a fuck about the expedition and give poor quality supplies etc. It’s not the first time something like this happened. Even in Europe, a soldier’s diet was pretty poor by today’s standards.

As for malaria,even if the Spanish had some idea of how to treat it,it’s not going to do much to help. We have trouble treating malaria with modern medical technology,I have little faith in the 17th century Spanish’s ability to treat it well.

Also for malaria, it's only a problem in more tropical countries. Isn't Beijing or Nanjing too far north for that?
For the travel, they'd be on the sea most of the time so no mosquitoes
They will be spending some time in the Philippines.There’s likely gonna be some time off in Africa and other parts of SE Asia as well.
 
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Christ, can you imagine.
Chinese is already overloaded. Baroque makes Chinese look like brutalist architecture.
Imagine Baroque in Gold and Red with extra dragons.

Actually, I wonder how the figure of St George might be received since dragons are revered.
Dragons would probably become figures of saints or the incarnation of the Holy Spirit

There's an extra thrill here too as Spanish Baroque is probably the darkest, most hardcore the movement gets. The Chinese could match this, or else go in the more florid, flabby, Flemish direction - either would produce spectacular results.

Good point about the Dragons, I wonder if their differing role would serve as an emblem of some sort of Christian/Daoist culture clash.

Or maybe Westerners today would not see Chinese Dragons as 'Dragons' but as different beings altogether, something more heavenly? One notable feature of a lot of Christian art is the way it adapts local iconography - so a pinch of Helios in Jesus here, a dash of Jupiter in God there, a sprinkling of Isis in Mary, and so on. Successful Chinese Catholic art could in that case co-opt Dragons, as per your last point, into some sort of heavenly agents.
 

ar-pharazon

Banned
Problem with that is that in christian texts and iconography dragons are pretty much directly associated with the devil. The devil is actually referred as a dragon and "that ancient serpent" in the book of revelation.

So that wouldn't jive well with Chinese ideas of dragons.
 
But do they need to be 'Dragons' in European/Christian eyes? I wonder if they would end up being classified as different creatures in this timeline.
 
But do they need to be 'Dragons' in European/Christian eyes? I wonder if they would end up being classified as different creatures in this timeline.

Chinese dragons are associated with water rather than fire, so maybe? Though I mean, even in OTL serpents were also seen as symbols of salvation, and not everyone saw such serpents as symbols of Satan. I mean, look at all those snake handler cults.
 
Problem with that is that in christian texts and iconography dragons are pretty much directly associated with the devil. The devil is actually referred as a dragon and "that ancient serpent" in the book of revelation.

So that wouldn't jive well with Chinese ideas of dragons.
To my knowledge,prior to the Ming Dynasty,dragons weren’t necessarily considered ‘good’,and were indeed considered a sign of ill omen at times.

To be honest, it’s a misconception to equate Chinese ‘dragons’ with European ones because they were fundementally two types of creatures. So maybe they just get seen as a different type of creature like a sphinx?
 
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What about the scenario of Spain to 'pull a Macau' with Hong Kong or some other islands? The level of forces needed would be less and it may be possible just talk it through with local government.
 
There's an extra thrill here too as Spanish Baroque is probably the darkest, most hardcore the movement gets. The Chinese could match this, or else go in the more florid, flabby, Flemish direction - either would produce spectacular results.

Good point about the Dragons, I wonder if their differing role would serve as an emblem of some sort of Christian/Daoist culture clash.

Or maybe Westerners today would not see Chinese Dragons as 'Dragons' but as different beings altogether, something more heavenly? One notable feature of a lot of Christian art is the way it adapts local iconography - so a pinch of Helios in Jesus here, a dash of Jupiter in God there, a sprinkling of Isis in Mary, and so on. Successful Chinese Catholic art could in that case co-opt Dragons, as per your last point, into some sort of heavenly agents.
I do wonder how it worked in Vietnam. This is a heavily sinicised region who converted massively. I'd have to check if there's any trace of old churches (although tough as there were heavy persecutions)

Chinese dragons are associated with water rather than fire, so maybe? Though I mean, even in OTL serpents were also seen as symbols of salvation, and not everyone saw such serpents as symbols of Satan. I mean, look at all those snake handler cults.
Yeah, it doesn't have to be translated as dragon or serpent. Plus if it's associated with water, it can be associated with baptism
 
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