What if the Spanish colonized the Philippines 100 years after OTL?

It has been said that the islands of the Philippines was on the verge of adopting Islam (like Indonesia OTL) by the time the Spanish first arrived in the Philippines in the early 16th century, converting the Southernmost regions of the Philippines as well as the region surrounding modern-day Manila. What would happened had the Spanish arrived later than OTL or had started their colonization later? How successful would the Spanish had been against a Philippines with a more entrenched Muslim religious presence than OTL?
 
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That could have happened if Portugal moved to exploit and establish concessions in the Philippines prior to the Iberian union.
 
It has been said that the islands of the Philippines was on the verge of adopting Islam (like Indonesia OTL) by the time the Spanish first arrived in the Philippines in the early 16th century, converting the Southernmost regions of the Philippines as well as the region surrounding modern-day Manila. What would happened had the Spanish arrived later than OTL or had started their colonization later? How successful would the Spanish had been against a Philippines with a more entrenched Muslim religious presence than OTL?
It has been said, but the proof is lacking. Manila proper may have had Muslim rulers thanks to Bruneian conquest in the beginning of the 16th century, but the people still ate pork and drank alcohol. Also, at the time, the Visayan islands between Manila and Maguindanao remained heavily pagan. The early to mid 17th century would see Manila itself likely more Muslim, but with the rest of the Tagalog region still mostly pagan, unless there is an overwhelming impetus to convert.
 
It has been said, but the proof is lacking. Manila proper may have had Muslim rulers thanks to Bruneian conquest in the beginning of the 16th century, but the people still ate pork and drank alcohol. Also, at the time, the Visayan islands between Manila and Maguindanao remained heavily pagan. The early to mid 17th century would see Manila itself likely more Muslim, but with the rest of the Tagalog region still mostly pagan, unless there is an overwhelming impetus to convert.
What do you think are the differences between Indonesian and Filipino society for the Indonesians to convert to Islam while the Filipinos didn't? In my opinion, I think it was due more to distance reasons as the Philippines was virtually at the end of the world (Pacific Ocean) and therefore had little impetus for Indian, Chinese, or Muslim traders and religious missionaries to go there by the time of the arrival of the Spanish. Much of Indonesia had converted to Islam in the first half of the 2nd millennium. The Southern Philippines had started to convert to Islam in the hundred years leading up to the Spanish and would've probably crept up the Philippines further had there been more time for Muslim missionaries.
 
What do you think are the differences between Indonesian and Filipino society for the Indonesians to convert to Islam while the Filipinos didn't? In my opinion, I think it was due more to distance reasons as the Philippines was virtually at the end of the world (Pacific Ocean) and therefore had little impetus for Indian, Chinese, or Muslim traders and religious missionaries to go there by the time of the arrival of the Spanish. Much of Indonesia had converted to Islam in the first half of the 2nd millennium. The Southern Philippines had started to convert to Islam in the hundred years leading up to the Spanish and would've probably crept up the Philippines further had there been more time for Muslim missionaries.
Sulu and Maguindanao had three hundred years to convert all of Mindanao, and they didn't do so. They had a hundred to convert the Visayan islands, and they didn't do so. It took a conqueror from Brunei to even put a Muslim prince on the throne of Manila, and in three generations they never went farther than Manila and its immediate environs. A hundred additional years would change little, precisely because we are something of a backwater at the far end of the trade routes, distant from even the Spice Islands. It's the same with New Guinea, which also retained pagan beliefs.

The Galleon trade changed all that, for better or worse.
 
Sulu and Maguindanao had three hundred years to convert all of Mindanao, and they didn't do so. They had a hundred to convert the Visayan islands, and they didn't do so. It took a conqueror from Brunei to even put a Muslim prince on the throne of Manila, and in three generations they never went farther than Manila and its immediate environs. A hundred additional years would change little, precisely because we are something of a backwater at the far end of the trade routes, distant from even the Spice Islands. It's the same with New Guinea, which also retained pagan beliefs.

The Galleon trade changed all that, for better or worse.
The historian Victor Lieberman argues in the book "Strange Parallels Vol. II" that it was inevitable that the Spanish would've found Islam as entrenched throughout the Philippines as it had been in Southernmost portions of the Philippines had the Spanish arrived "two generations later" (Lieberman, 831). JJ McCullough's video on Philippines history also argues that most historians agree that the Philippines would've become Muslims had the Spanish not arrived when they did (he cites Luis H. Francia's "A History of the Philippines" at the end of his video).
 
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The historian Victor Lieberman argues in the book "Strange Parallels Vol. II" that it was inevitable that the Spanish would've found Islam as entrenched throughout the Philippines as it had been in Southernmost portions of the Philippines had the Spanish arrived "two generations later" (Lieberman, 831). JJ McCullough's video on Philippines history also argues that most historians agree that the Philippines would've become Muslims had the Spanish not arrived when they did (he cites Luis H. Francia's "A History of the Philippines" at the end of his video).
On the other hand, according to actual Filipinos like Nick Joaquin, many regions in these islands never took to Islam, absorbing it very slowly. I mean, look at Ilocos and Cebu at the time of Legazpi, or the Lumads of Mindanao. Those regions never really saw Islam, much like New Guinea, and considering the Dayak regions of Indonesia, I doubt that they'd have seen Islam for centuries more, until the mass conversions of the 19th century.

For that matter, the fierce resistance of Visayans to Islam, what with Moro slave raids being commonplace, make them the perfect converts to Spanish Catholicism. Perhaps we'd see Cebuanos rather than Tagalogs become the leading ethnicity of Filipino nationalism, unless the whole region is taken over by the British or Dutch.
 
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On the other hand, according to actual Filipinos like Nick Joaquin, many regions in these islands never took to Islam, absorbing it very slowly. I mean, look at Ilocos and Cebu at the time of Legazpi. Those regions never really saw Islam, much like New Guinea, and considering the Dayak regions of Indonesia, I doubt that they'd have seen Islam for centuries more, until the mass conversions of the 19th century.
I did cite an economic historian, though, so it depends on the historian. Which book do you cite? Also the Dayak are in the interior of Borneo, of course they would adopt things much slower than the mercantile cities alongside rivers and the coast (just like with the Thai/Burmese/Lao mountain peoples in remote jungle settlements).
 
On the other hand, according to actual Filipinos like Nick Joaquin, many regions in these islands never took to Islam, absorbing it very slowly. I mean, look at Ilocos and Cebu at the time of Legazpi, or the Lumads of Mindanao. Those regions never really saw Islam, much like New Guinea, and considering the Dayak regions of Indonesia, I doubt that they'd have seen Islam for centuries more, until the mass conversions of the 19th century.

For that matter, the fierce resistance of Visayans to Islam, what with Moro slave raids being commonplace, make them the perfect converts to Spanish Catholicism. Perhaps we'd see Cebuanos rather than Tagalogs become the leading ethnicity of Filipino nationalism, unless the whole region is taken over by the British or Dutch.
To paraphrase, Lieberman basically argues that over time, distant regions will become exposed to the global economy, using cycles of growth and collapse over what he calls as "peripheries" (Northern and Western Europe, Southeast Asia, and Japan), areas which adopted civilization centuries later than the original major civilizations (China, India, Greece, Rome). Southeast Asia first became connected to the world economy in the last centuries of the first millennium and accelerated in cycles of growth (such as the Chinese population boom of the 18th century and the the lifting of the Chinese private commerce ban, which had prevented ordinary Chinese from trading outside of China legally). Mainland Southeast Asia (according to Lieberman) went through several of these phases, from early Indianization around 1 CE, to Therevada Buddhism around 1000 CE, to more foreign influences (Persian, Chinese) around 1400 CE. I don't see why the Philippines couldn't go through a similar transition of societal and cultural progression as Mainland Southeast Asia. Compare that Mainland Southeast Asia chronology to that of the Muslim influence in the Philippines, that is only a hundred to two hundred years of external commercial influences. I also don't see why shouldn't the Philippines gradually become more connected to the global market without the Spanish and therefore conform over time to these outside influences, of which Muslim traders were among the most trailblazing sailors in the Indian Ocean and in Maritime Southeast Asia. I therfore don't believe in static change and that the Philippines somehow stay primitive forever without the Spanish (which is a 19th century colonialist fallacy as challenged by most postcolonial historians), neither do I see that of an exceptionalist Philippines successfully resisting the Muslims due to them creating some form of proto-nationalist unity hundreds of years earlier than OTL.
 
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I did cite an economic historian, though, so it depends on the historian. Which book do you cite? Also the Dayak are in the interior of Borneo, of course they would adopt things much slower than the mercantile cities alongside rivers and the coast (just like with the Thai/Burmese/Lao mountain peoples in remote jungle settlements).
Nick Joaquin's essays from Culture and History are a good introduction to Philippine history beyond economics, though he does touch on material culture too. The fact is, Islam does not have much of an impetus to spread in this region of the world. Visayas was a source of slaves for the Muslims of the region, and retained a pagan outlook. Manila, though having a Muslim prince in 1565, still had a mainly pagan outlook and still had a lot of pig-sacrificing, alcohol-drinking people within its community, let alone outside it. This might change in a century or so, or it might not. Considering the loose and comparatively less developed social and economic structure of mid-16th century Philippines, I lean towards the latter.

To paraphrase, Lieberman basically argues that over time, distant regions will become exposed to the global economy, using cycles of growth and collapse over what he calls as "peripheries" (Northern and Western Europe, Southeast Asia, and Japan), areas which adopted civilization centuries later than the original major civilizations (China, India, Greece, Rome). Southeast Asia first became connected to the world economy in the last centuries of the first millennium and accelerated in cycles of growth (such as the Chinese population boom of the 18th century and the the lifting of the Chinese private commerce ban, which had prevented ordinary Chinese from trading outside of China legally). Mainland Southeast Asia (according to Lieberman) went through several of these phases, from early Indianization around 1 CE, to Therevada Buddhism around 1000 CE, to more foreign influences (Persian, Chinese) around 1400 CE. I don't see why the Philippines couldn't go through a similar transition of societal and cultural progression as Mainland Southeast Asia. Compare that Mainland Southeast Asia chronology to that of the Muslim influence in the Philippines, that is only a hundred to two hundred years of external commercial influences. I also don't see why shouldn't the Philippines gradually become more connected to the global market without the Spanish and therefore conform over time to these outside influences, of which Muslim traders were among the most trailblazing sailors in the Indian Ocean and in Maritime Southeast Asia.
Of course but then, there are always regions that are slower and faster in absorbing foreign influences, and different in their choices. A mid 17th century Spanish expedition to the Philippines may see a loosely Muslim Katagalugan centered on Maynila, but it may also see a Tagalog region more ripe for conversion to Catholicism than IOTL, a region with knowledge of Islam and God but no conviction in the religion. Perhaps it would see in Visayans a fierce resistance against Islam and its slave raids. A century more might still be a bit too early to see Islam integrate itself into the whole archipelago.

I wonder though, what would Japanese and Chinese sailors be doing ITTL?
 
People tend to forget that the ethnic configuration of the Philippines is different prior to the Spanish, the areas north of Pasig river wasn't Tagalog speaking, delaying the Spanish colonization a few more hundred years would allow similar tribes to consolidate and maintain this configuration.
 
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Nick Joaquin's essays from Culture and History are a good introduction to Philippine history beyond economics, though he does touch on material culture too. The fact is, Islam does not have much of an impetus to spread in this region of the world. Visayas was a source of slaves for the Muslims of the region, and retained a pagan outlook. Manila, though having a Muslim prince in 1565, still had a mainly pagan outlook and still had a lot of pig-sacrificing, alcohol-drinking people within its community, let alone outside it. This might change in a century or so, or it might not. Considering the loose and comparatively less developed social and economic structure of mid-16th century Philippines, I lean towards the latter.


Of course but then, there are always regions that are slower and faster in absorbing foreign influences, and different in their choices. A mid 17th century Spanish expedition to the Philippines may see a loosely Muslim Katagalugan centered on Maynila, but it may also see a Tagalog region more ripe for conversion to Catholicism than IOTL, a region with knowledge of Islam and God but no conviction in the religion. Perhaps it would see in Visayans a fierce resistance against Islam and its slave raids. A century more might still be a bit too early to see Islam integrate itself into the whole archipelago.

I wonder though, what would Japanese and Chinese sailors be doing ITTL?
I checked the r/askhistorians book recommendations and found a Muslim Philippines historian named Isaac Donoso. Search in Google videos "Muslim Philippines history Issac Donos" and you'll be able to find a lecture featuring him. He has some interesting findings.
 
I checked the r/askhistorians book recommendations and found a Muslim Philippines historian named Isaac Donoso. Search in Google videos "Muslim Philippines history Issac Donos" and you'll be able to find a lecture featuring him. He has some interesting findings.
I've been looking to get a couple of his books.

In any case, the Philippines is a complicated place, and Islam was not the only cultural influence in the region. Indeed, the Philippines left alone by the Spaniards would still have to contend with wokou pirates and whatever comes out of Japan and the chaos of Ming China's fall. Katagalugan is equally likely to become an extension of Fujian or a home for an anti-Qing diaspora as it is to become a bunch of squabbling sultanates.
 
I've been looking to get a couple of his books.

In any case, the Philippines is a complicated place, and Islam was not the only cultural influence in the region. Indeed, the Philippines left alone by the Spaniards would still have to contend with wokou pirates and whatever comes out of Japan and the chaos of Ming China's fall. Katagalugan is equally likely to become an extension of Fujian or a home for an anti-Qing diaspora as it is to become a bunch of squabbling sultanates.
Spain not colonizing the Philippines will butterfly Ming's fall, because one of the reasons of Ming's fall is butterflied away.
 
Spain not colonizing the Philippines will butterfly Ming's fall, because one of the reasons of Ming's fall is butterflied away.
The Ming had problems long before Spain came to the region. Indeed, without Spaniards fighting wokou pirates and providing the empire revenue through trade, I think it's likely the Ming will fall faster.
 
The Ming had problems long before Spain came to the region. Indeed, without Spaniards fighting wokou pirates and providing the empire revenue through trade, I think it's likely the Ming will fall faster.
Although the ming might not flee to the sea like what they OTL did if someone else took over.
 
If the Spanish did not get the Philippines, the Portuguese would have it under their influence since they were doing exploration there as well and they would exploit it like what they did in Sulawesi and other areas that they had influence in, if Portugal goes into union with Spain it would be part of the Iberian Union.
 
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The Ming had problems long before Spain came to the region. Indeed, without Spaniards fighting wokou pirates and providing the empire revenue through trade, I think it's likely the Ming will fall faster.
I agree. The Manila Galleon trade brought a lot of prosperity to southern China. It allowed people on the southern coast to become wealthy through trade rather than piracy, and increased the standard of living in much of southern China by creating an environment were credit could be extended. While the Portuguese were in the region and introducing American crops, it's trade with the Spanish Philippines that is credited with introducing the sweet potato and so averting famine in Fujian in the 1590's. Without the Spanish Philippines, southern China-which had strongholds of Ming loyalty during the Qing conquest-is much poorer and less stable, and will therefore contribute to an earlier fall of the Ming IMO.

Regarding the Philippines and the Portuguese, while Limahong and his ilk are unlikely to establish any stable states in the region the wokou could easily set themselves up as middlemen for trade in the area. They export Philippino honey, beeswax, and lumber to China for Chinese goods, and export Chinese goods to the Portuguese for firearms. So a Spanish late arrival could find Chinese coastal communities armed to the teeth with European weapons and entrenched in Philippino politics as either allies or overlords of the various barangays, whether Muslim or not. This could greatly complicate any attempt to conquer the Philippines...
 
Again, I say that if the Spanish did not make moves over the Philippines it would be Portugal that would be the one getting it, the colonization of Portugal in the PH would be slower and much more loose than the one we have seen with the Spanish, but it would be better than the one we saw with the Spanish although they would still exploit it.
 
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