RNG

Banned
What if the Spanish American war never happened? How long would Spain be able to keep their territories? Would they rise up for independence? Would a compromise happen? If America never held the Philippines would Japan still bomb Pearl Harbour? Would America enter the war later? Without bases in the Pacific how would the war turn out? Would Japan be able to hold it their empire while Germany is still beaten in Europe yet late America might mean a larger Soviet Union. Would the Soviet Union and Japan battle it out? Would the cold war be between America, Russia, and Japan? As a result Japan would be stronger, however perhaps not technology advanced, at in a civilian sense as opposed to militarily advanced. How would China react? Would there be another Third Sino Japanese war in the late twentieth century? Who would win? If not would China be as powerful as they are? What you think?
 
What if the Spanish American war never happened? How long would Spain be able to keep their territories? Would they rise up for independence? Would a compromise happen? If America never held the Philippines would Japan still bomb Pearl Harbour? Would America enter the war later? Without bases in the Pacific how would the war turn out? Would Japan be able to hold it their empire while Germany is still beaten in Europe yet late America might mean a larger Soviet Union. Would the Soviet Union and Japan battle it out? Would the cold war be between America, Russia, and Japan? As a result Japan would be stronger, however perhaps not technology advanced, at in a civilian sense as opposed to militarily advanced. How would China react? Would there be another Third Sino Japanese war in the late twentieth century? Who would win? If not would China be as powerful as they are? What you think?

As far as I know, the Phillipines were about to be lost. The rebels had surrounded Manilla... could be wrong tho.

Cuba might be easier to hold than the Phillipines only to lose it later in the 40s or 50s. Puerto Rico is likely to stay Spanish up to the 90s maybe even up to this day.

As long as Spain does not bother Japan later in the 20th century ther shouldn't be a war with Japan over the Pacific islands. The reason Japan attacked the USA was due to US oil boycot to Japan and motivating other nations to do so. With the US in Hawai it still is likely ther would be a war with Japan if Japan still wrecks China.

P.S. a cold war between the USA, Russia and China is more likely, given that Japan will continue to conquer Chinese lands.
 
Luzon, which is not even controled by Spain in 1898. I don't Rebels will like that anyway.

Germany buying is another option. They needed colonies for prestige...
No, they can buy it in order for the spanish to enforce control on what they have and the british are at their height at this point.

America is an option after annexing hawaii but they will buy luzon in this scenario since they planned to buy luzon only during the war and did not plan to buy the whole ph.
 
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As far as I know, the Phillipines were about to be lost. The rebels had surrounded Manilla... could be wrong tho.

Cuba might be easier to hold than the Phillipines only to lose it later in the 40s or 50s. Puerto Rico is likely to stay Spanish up to the 90s maybe even up to this day.

As long as Spain does not bother Japan later in the 20th century ther shouldn't be a war with Japan over the Pacific islands. The reason Japan attacked the USA was due to US oil boycot to Japan and motivating other nations to do so. With the US in Hawai it still is likely ther would be a war with Japan if Japan still wrecks China.

P.S. a cold war between the USA, Russia and China is more likely, given that Japan will continue to conquer Chinese lands.

Interesting. If the Phillipines did fall, I wonder what the international reaction might be. Would some other power scoot in and declare them a protectorate? Or would maybe a Japan, flexing its muscles after defeating the Qing in 1895 and angry at Europeans, swoop in and start the Pacific Empire early?
 
Interesting. If the Phillipines did fall, I wonder what the international reaction might be. Would some other power scoot in and declare them a protectorate? Or would maybe a Japan, flexing its muscles after defeating the Qing in 1895 and angry at Europeans, swoop in and start the Pacific Empire early?

If the Phillipines fall, the international community or at least the West will remain undecided until Spain acts. Spain either recognises it or it attempts to take it back. Up to that, there move will be determined
Japan however would try to use it to grow influence in South East Asia. The USA sees it as a new place to trade with.

Both won't do something to anger Britain that is for sure.
 
If the Phillipines fall, the international community or at least the West will remain undecided until Spain acts. Spain either recognises it or it attempts to take it back. Up to that, there move will be determined
Japan however would try to use it to grow influence in South East Asia. The USA sees it as a new place to trade with.

Both won't do something to anger Britain that is for sure.


My point is since the spanish planned to get rid of the philippines for a long time they might offer it to US or Britain but they only buy Luzon from them which is in their designs and help them reinforce what they have, the americans or british can use their divide and conquer tactics.
 
A few questions:

1. If the USA passes on the Spanish colonies in 1898, do they have a go at them later?
2. Can the Spanish defeat the rebels in the Philippines and Cuba? Presumably they could in Cuba?
3. Does Spain sell the Philippines, and if so to who and are the other countries OK with this?
4. Does Spain holding on to more of its colonial empire butterfly away the Spanish Civil War?

The big one is obviously the Philippines, which is the most valuable of the group. If it somehow winds up in German hands, then it is targeted in World War I, probably by the French, but it means some French forces from elsewhere have to be diverted and there is the German Asiatic squadron to content with. But World War I is one of those events that can be butterflied by just about anything. If the Philippines become independent then that has an effect, of a colony successfully establishing its independence at that stage.

The possibility with the least butterflies is that Spain rallies and keeps its colonies, and Spain rallying also butterflies away the Spanish Civil War. If the Spanish Civil War still happens, I'm not sure if Cuba and the Philippines can be isolated. If it doesn't happen, you have some effects on World War 2 from no Spanish Civil War, and considerably more on twentieth century literature. And Spain's internal development changes.

Portugal kept its colonial empire until 1975, and that included a colony, East Timor, where the Japanese were operating, so its conceivable the Spain could hold these places until quite late in the twentieth century.

Things that might be butterflied away with no or different US involvement in Cuba include the Cuban Missile Crisis, the fall of Kruschev in the USSR, the JFK assassination, and pretty much IOTL South Florida. If Puerto Rico is not part of the US, no West Side Story and some changes to New York and Florida. A non-American Philippines affects the Vietnam War as well as World War 2.
 

Lusitania

Donor
If Philippines did achieve independence I could see Japanese invasion in ww1 on some pretende of Japanese citizen or ship being attacked. Same with Spain, the Philippines are just to tempting and large for Japanese to ignore.

If the Germans took them I could see simultaneous French and Japanese attack on them. The Japanese attacked German colonies in the pacific during the war no reason they would not go after the Philippines.
 
The Philippines is quite a bit larger than East Timor though.
That is why I say the Americans can buy Luzon and help the Spanish defend the rest of the Philippines, that is their next logical step after getting Hawaii, they can setup Luzon as their base in the east.

The Spanish can sell vismin to the germans.
 
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If you didn't lose it you just sell it to the Germans or the French (who don't want the Germans to get it). They are already in Vietnam. Sounds much better than giving it to the USA. Keeping good relationship with the Europeans...
 
If you didn't lose it you just sell it to the Germans or the French (who don't want the Germans to get it). They are already in Vietnam. Sounds much better than giving it to the USA. Keeping good relationship with the Europeans...
Yes they would sell Luzon to the British or Americans and maybe Vismin to French/Germans.

Selling their rights to Luzon to the British would mean that the British would help the Spanish in their reconquest of the rest of the Philippines, the same would happen if the Americans buy it.
 
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