What if the Space Shuttle Columbia had not broken up on re-entry?

alt_historian

(As requested by comments on a trolling thread)

As the title asks, what if the Columbia had not broken up on re-entry? (I am going to say, specifically, that this is because the foam insulation did not break off, rather than the Shuttle simply making it back through the atmosphere anyway. That gives us more specific parameters to work within.) Obviously, there would be the immediate effect that those particular astronauts would, barring other accidents, still be alive today. However, I can think of a few points to consider:

- would the Shuttle still be as trusted as it was beforehand?

- how likely is it that a similar disaster would have taken place by now?

- how would all this affect the proposed Shuttle replacement? By this I mean the entire programme, both the Orion capsule and the launch vehicles. Would the programme be behind compared to OTL, or would it be ahead for some reason? In fact, would the programme even exist? (OTL, it seems to have been at least partially a response to the Columbia disaster).

- in the longer-term, how would this effect things like the proposed missions to Mars? (Sorry, can't see to findmany details about that).


Obviously there is more to ask than this, the above is just what I can think of at the moment.
 

SunilTanna

Congress decides to extend the life of the shuttle. It's a proven system!

No X vehicles

No Ares/Orion (just like Bush Sr.'s Mars ideas) it gets dumped

But why spend money on space when we have 2 wars to fight... so little or no extra money is provided. The shuttle flies less and less often, and less safely with more corners being cut.

Probably eventually another accident happens.... but now NASA has no plans for a replacement vehicle.
 

hammo1j

Donor
Nasa would become even more beaurocratic (can never spell that word -maybe it's only beaurocrats who can do it?).

As with the previous shuttle failure it was entirely preventable and down to echlons of penpushers and PR pundits getting in the way of proper engineering based decision making. After each failure there was a cull and a promise to return to the golden era of the 1960's. No doubt this pattern will continue as the USA seems to adopt the mindset of the European Community. Maybe it will result in a beaureuxkratik Olympics.

The shuttle was on the way out whatever the situation since it itself had proved that re-usable didn't make sense for to earth orbit vehicles.
 
Georgepatton

Georgepatton

Thank you alt historian. I personally think that the Shuttle program was dead either way, but survival of Columbia might have extended its life a little longer, possibly until it blew up anyway. Thanks again. Death to trolls.:cool:
 

simonbp

Throwing in my 0.16 bits,

In the near term (out to about now): The STS would still have been used to construct the ISS. The Orbital Space Plane (OSP) project would continue, and probably build something like where they were in the fall of 2003 (4.5 or 4 meter Apollo-shaped capsule launched on a Delta IV-Heavy). It'll probably be renamed something similar to Crew Exploration Vehicle (that name predates the Columbia accident), and first fly in 2010-2011-ish range.

Longer-term: The STS will only fly infrequently after OSP comes online, and if there's an accident like OTL, it will be canceled entirely. With an operational OSP, the option to fly to the moon is somewhat open for the first time since the 1970's. But with shuttles continuing to fly, I can imagine NASA trying to drum up funding for something like Shuttle-C (unmanned cargo shuttle concept from post-Challenger days). Two Shuttle-Cs and an OSP are enough to do a very capable lunar mission.

So, I'd wager the long-run impact will be on launch vehicles, not necessarily whether or not we shoot for the moon again. Of course, the Ares V makes Mars mission a whole lot more plausible...

Edit: Some sources:

OSP circa November 2003 (right before the VSE): http://www.space.com/businesstechnology/technology/fof_osp_031119.html

Shuttle-C: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shuttle-C

Simon ;)
 
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