What if the Soviets took Denmark in World War II?

Here we discuss an alternate timeline where the Soviets managed to push a little faster towards the West, and get to "liberate" Denmark before installing a Soviet-friendly communist government in the country that will be a member of the Warsaw Pact, likely called the "Danish People's Republic" or the "Democratic Republic of Denmark" or something like that.

This leads to a slightly larger East Germany, while Denmark would serve as an important military base for the USSR, especially the Soviet Navy given its coast at the North Sea. As for the Danish Royal Family? I imagine they flee somewhere abroad, possibly to the United States, assuming they aren't executed first.

Then there's the matter of Greenland. Here, since the US was already occupying the land, and had actually wanted it in OTL (even offering Denmark to buy it, which they refused) and they don't want it to fall to the Reds (especially as Cold War tensions mount and Greenland would give the Soviets a good base too close to them), they would annex, I mean, liberate Greenland by having it "join" the US. Basically, they hold a snap referendum to leave Denmark and join the US, which everyone votes to do (don't question the results its totally legitimate...).

In the Cold War, the US and their Allies (plus the exiled monarchy) recognize this as legitimate (albeit likely with some diplomatic pressure involved), but the Soviets, the communist Denmark and the Eastern Bloc would never recognize this, and propaganda portrays this as an example of Western imperialism. Of course, the West would portray Denmark's communist government itself as illegitimate too. Greenland would play an important role for the US as a major military base, a frontline defense that the US invests billions in to build up the infrastructure, though few Americans likely think of it regularly. As its a frozen wasteland, it's a place that no US soldier wants to go to, but it's a job that has to be done. Greenland likely never becomes a state, but always a territory like Puerto Rico or Guam.

As for Denmark itself, we can expect the nation to be rebuilt with a lot of communist architecture. It'd be interesting to see Denmark's natural beauty contrasted with the cold, brutal, unappealing design of Soviet buildings, apartments, military bases and statues of figures like Marx and Lenin. In the early years, it's likely Denmark suffers from trying to modernize into an industrial economy, just like the others, especially since resources would be leeched by the USSR. We might see uprisings that get violently put down by the Soviets, like East Germany 1953 or Hungary 1956. Expect many escape attempts to West Germany, or the UK by sea, until the Soviets heavily fortify the border. After Stalin dies and Khrushchev takes power, and reforms spread across the Eastern Bloc, expect living conditions to improve, but still be behind the West.

Assuming that the Cold War ends at the same time in TTL, we can expect the old government plus the exiled monarchy to return to Denmark in the early 1990s. But today, it's unlikely Denmark is as prosperous as OTL, given the decades of communism likely set it back a bit. We can expect many communist buildings to remain, so cities like Copenhagen aren't quite as nice all around (though it can still be beautiful, just like at places like Budapest), and Greenland becomes rather irrelevant to the US interests now that the main reason for their investment into dissolved. Likely it gets stripped for its equipment to be used elsewhere in the War on Terror, but still remains a US holding.

Anyways, this is how I imagine a timeline where the Soviets took Denmark. It's not too realistic that the USSR can take all of Denmark, but crazier things happened and assuming luck is on their side it happens here.

Anyways, what do you guys think would happen if the Soviets took Denmark?
 
I can tell you what would NOT happen is the Soviets taking Greenland. I also suspect the US would trade concessions elsewhere (like Greece, say) to get the Soviets out of Denmark.
 
I can tell you what would NOT happen is the Soviets taking Greenland. I also suspect the US would trade concessions elsewhere (like Greece, say) to get the Soviets out of Denmark.
Well, yeah, the Soviets don't have the naval capability or logistics to get there, and the Americans were already there and I don't think they would just leave even if the Soviets asked nicely.

But is there a particular reason the US would allow the Soviets to have Greece in exchange for freeing Denmark?
 
Churchill would not want the Soviets to have a free access to the North Sea, and Truman was willing to threaten Stalin with nuclear weapons to get the Soviets out of northern Iran in OTL. One would need a solid POD to make both the UK and US to grant such concessions, and to keep Sweden from rushing in before the Soviets arrive.
 
You probably need either even better performing Red Army or worse performing Western Allies by time of Yalta, or even both to agree for different post war borders.
 

Pangur

Donor
I can tell you what would NOT happen is the Soviets taking Greenland. I also suspect the US would trade concessions elsewhere (like Greece, say) to get the Soviets out of Denmark.
Greenland, easy enough. Have a Dutch parliament in exile run it and oddly enough they just might want the US to stay. Getting the Soviets out of Denmark would require a Operation Unthinkable
 
Austrian People's Republic didn't happen. So Denmark one isn't happening either. Occupation zones were agreed on beforehand. They weren't really connected to the how far troops of any given side reached before the German surrender.
 
Austrian People's Republic didn't happen. So Denmark one isn't happening either. Occupation zones were agreed on beforehand. They weren't really connected to the how far troops of any given side reached before the German surrender.
Just have the POD be farther back. It is hardly impossible the war might have gone differently and left more of Europe under Russian influence. I could imagine TLs where Russian tanks roll all the way to the Rhine (or beyond!)
 
Austrian People's Republic didn't happen. So Denmark one isn't happening either. Occupation zones were agreed on beforehand. They weren't really connected to the how far troops of any given side reached before the German surrender.
On that note, how likely would an Austria-style neutral Denmark be in such a scenario?
 
Just have the POD be farther back. It is hardly impossible the war might have gone differently and left more of Europe under Russian influence. I could imagine TLs where Russian tanks roll all the way to the Rhine (or beyond!)
That automatically triggers Unthinkable. The Soviets occupying any nation with land West of the Rhine and refusing to return it to its legal governments would trigger such a backlash that the remaining allies wouldn't stop until Stalin was in a grave. Churchill and DeGaul already heavily distrusted the Soviets and even Roosevelt wouldn't be able to twist himself into allowing Soviet troops in France or the Lowlands.
 
That automatically triggers Unthinkable. The Soviets occupying any nation with land West of the Rhine and refusing to return it to its legal governments would trigger such a backlash that the remaining allies wouldn't stop until Stalin was in a grave. Churchill and DeGaul already heavily distrusted the Soviets and even Roosevelt wouldn't be able to twist himself into allowing Soviet troops in France or the Lowlands.
Depends on the TL. If the Soviets perform so well (e.g., by successfully destroying Army Group Center in the winter of 1941/42) that they liberate France first, they probably are in such a strong bargaining position that the Western Allies can't credibly threaten them. Remember, little was done over the occupation of Poland either, since they were in no position to dictate anything about what happened to their ally.

Also worth remembering that France had a very strong communist presence, so the communist regime set up there would probably benefit from more legitimacy than the more sham governments set up in Poland etc. Of course, would also be interesting if the communist government of France manages to shake off Soviet dominion due to needing its support less (and Soviet troops being more scattered across the puppet state bloc), and ends up being a third/intermediary party in the Cold War.
 
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That automatically triggers Unthinkable. The Soviets occupying any nation with land West of the Rhine and refusing to return it to its legal governments would trigger such a backlash that the remaining allies wouldn't stop until Stalin was in a grave. Churchill and DeGaul already heavily distrusted the Soviets and even Roosevelt wouldn't be able to twist himself into allowing Soviet troops in France or the Lowlands.
POD farther back, maybe FDR isn't even president. Who knows if De Gaulle is anyone? Even Churchill or Stalin are all possibly changed. OP has no POD limits. Could be in the mid 30's, for all we know.
 

Grey Wolf

Donor
Well, the Flensburg government is going to have to flee, plus all the evacuations of 100s of thousands from the Baltics and E Prussia either end up in Soviet hands anyway, or don't happen at all (OTL they were happening even after the surrender whilst the Flensburg government was allowed to exist)
 
I have thought about this scenario a bit.

As noted by @Ajobek and others, you need a PoD a significant time before Yalta conference, so we are talking something like D-Day failing / being aborted in 1944 or Germany kicking WAllies out of Italy in 1943-44. Not impossible, but darn close to it.

I was speculating on a much more active Scandinavia joining the winter war on the Finnish side in 1940, and ending up as Axis belligerents, only to be cumberstomped by the Soviets and turned into the Scandinavian Socialist Union (including Sch.-Holstein).

I also explored the idea of a 1933 PoD with a more successful Nazi movement in Denmark (a firebrand like Ejnar Jørgensen or a excellent writer like Helge Bangsted becomes its leader instead of the uncharismatic Fritz Clausen), which gets popular support of some 10-12% of the electorate (primarily taking voters from the communist party). Not enough to form a government, but enough to be installed as the puppet government in april 1940. This in turn leads to a more active Danish participation on the eastern front, not anything substantially changing the overall outcome, expect leading the Soviet leadership to hate the Danes with a passion, and thus slowly, but steadily pushing for a Soviet occupation of Denmark.

In terms of Soviet Denmark, I toyed with the idea of Island being a Danish Taiwan, but the distance and numbers simply don't add up for a "Royal Denmark in exile".
The idea of a Soviet border revision in Schl.-Holstein, however, could potentially work. The Soviet motive being the same as the Polish-German border revision. This in turn creating some funky internal Danish politics.

In terms of a Soviet Denmark in the cold war, then something between Czechoslovakia and East German, but with a touch of hygge. A Copenhagen Spring uprising could definitely be there as well - complete with a liberalization of pornography at the same time.

Post-Soviet Denmark would be a poor and much more nationalistic place. Think Hungary, but more depressed.

Edit: oh, and on Greenland, it goes independent and then votes to join either Canada or the USA.
 
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I think a Fascist Denmark is more likely to be able to stay neutral and unlikely to join the Nazi, and the Nazi is more likely to let them stay neutral. A successful Nazi party in Denmark is pretty much impossible, the Danish Nazi party had heavy representation from the German minority and as such they were despised by other Danish nationalist parties. In 1934 and 1939 elections the two fascist parties (the Nazi and the Peasant Party) got 5% of the vote while authoritarian nationalist parties (Danish Unity and National Unity) got 1,5 % of the vote. The support for nazism, fascist and authoritarianism was almost non existing among the general population. Maybe the Peasant Party have committed a coup, but these their marginal support and the last attempt to overthrow the government in 1920 almost resulted in a revolution, I find this unlikely.

It’s pretty clear to me that a Soviet takeover of Denmark depend on USA supporting it, for UK Denmark as a Soviet vassal would be the biggest foreign policy disaster in centuries, it would put UK in a position where it was directly threaten by a vastly stronger power. So Communist Denmark either depend on a domestic revolution or USA browbeating UK into accepting it. It’s also why I find it likely that Denmark would keep Greenland in such a scenario, simply because it would demand USA made some massive foreign policy miscalculations about the post-War situation.
 
I think having Stalin attacking Hitler before Barbarossa would lead to this outcome.

Although I am curious if Denmark Scientist would be put to work in the Soviet Space Program?
 
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