What if the Soviet Union Survived?
- Thread starter cumbria
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yourworstnightmare
Banned
It would have collapses anyway. It wasn't functioning anymore in the 80s. More like a broken old car, desperately trying to stay on the road.
loughery111
Banned
Essentially, no August Putsch would more or less do it... that was what was probably going to happen until Yeltsin got his moment to play the hero and made Gorby look completely ineffectual. Then policy kinda ran away from them both.
Green Shadow
Banned
Assuming they adopt market reforms and become a mixed economy, they might be able to hold off from complete collapse. They would also need to relax their ambitions of military rivalry with the US. But if they could hold off until present day, I can see them undergoing some sort of resurgance- what with the sense that capitalism had failed in the global financial crisis and America having alienated much of the world. That of course assumes that both those things still happen.
Even if the Cold War winds down suspicions will remain, so we can expect America to remain rather more militant throughout the 1990's, and without those savings from cutting the military far more in debt. I think we can reasonably say that as much as the Soviet Union was struggling with the Cold War, America is currently struggling even without it, so it ended just in time for America.
In sum, both America and Russia/SU would be weaker as a result. I don't see much long term prospects for the USSR even it survives, but it probably eases China's displacement of America.
Even if the Cold War winds down suspicions will remain, so we can expect America to remain rather more militant throughout the 1990's, and without those savings from cutting the military far more in debt. I think we can reasonably say that as much as the Soviet Union was struggling with the Cold War, America is currently struggling even without it, so it ended just in time for America.
In sum, both America and Russia/SU would be weaker as a result. I don't see much long term prospects for the USSR even it survives, but it probably eases China's displacement of America.
I'd give the USSR maybe 5 extra years before it collapses. The structure was rotten to the core, Gorbachev just exposed that fact to the world.
As to the butterflies I wouldn't care to guess many of them, but I can't imagine the world being a better place.
I think most people are far too pessimistic when it comes to the possibility of the Soviet Union lumbering along. Low oil prices more than anything else robbed the USSR of money for foreign exchange, and really spurred economic reforms, since Soviet leaders were unwilling to deal with the repercussions of cutting back subsidies on well, everything.
Another Arab Oil Embargo in the 1980's could have strung out the Soviets for another decade at least. Granted, live would not have been pleasant in the USSR, or its satellites, but if the authorities had been quicker to resort to repression, there would have been far fewer active protests. The West could protest this, but as long as the USSR has it nukes, it will do no more.
A more ruthless leadership could easily have dragged the Soviet Union along to the present day. The country would have a weaker military, lower quality of life, and less clout in international affairs, but it would still exist so long as it maintained its ICBMs and the KGB.
Intellectual disillusionment with communism need not have been fatal to the USSR. North Korea and Burma have proven beyond a doubt that naked force can keep a totalitarian regime in power as long as the ruling elites are willing to wield it.
Effects of this? Left wing cooks and Eurocommunists would have even less credibility if the USSR still existed as a bloodthirsty and backwards testament to the power of "International Socialism". Probably higher world oil prices as the Soviets were never particularly good at adopting the latest oil drilling technology. The US would have had to maintain a decent army, and would have probably kept an extra carrier group or two. Corrpospondingly greater military spending in Europe, and probably greater military integration. The EU might been more defense oriented.
Another Arab Oil Embargo in the 1980's could have strung out the Soviets for another decade at least. Granted, live would not have been pleasant in the USSR, or its satellites, but if the authorities had been quicker to resort to repression, there would have been far fewer active protests. The West could protest this, but as long as the USSR has it nukes, it will do no more.
A more ruthless leadership could easily have dragged the Soviet Union along to the present day. The country would have a weaker military, lower quality of life, and less clout in international affairs, but it would still exist so long as it maintained its ICBMs and the KGB.
Intellectual disillusionment with communism need not have been fatal to the USSR. North Korea and Burma have proven beyond a doubt that naked force can keep a totalitarian regime in power as long as the ruling elites are willing to wield it.
Effects of this? Left wing cooks and Eurocommunists would have even less credibility if the USSR still existed as a bloodthirsty and backwards testament to the power of "International Socialism". Probably higher world oil prices as the Soviets were never particularly good at adopting the latest oil drilling technology. The US would have had to maintain a decent army, and would have probably kept an extra carrier group or two. Corrpospondingly greater military spending in Europe, and probably greater military integration. The EU might been more defense oriented.
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One nit: Japanese troops on Korean soil? How many of them are found with their throats slit every morning?
Rogue Shadows
Banned
It was probably an early problem, but frankly I'd like to think that the Seoul and Tokyo would be far more concerned with what the Soviets and North Korea are going to do. In this TL, the Koreans invited them in 'cause the alternative is considerably worse.
Imagine that the Japanese maintain only a small presence to back up the Koreans, with a promise of further troops should the North move south.
Snake Featherston
Banned
The USSR collapses much more bloodily and violently in a collapse with more resemblance to the disintegration of Yugoslavia but much more horrible due to the sheer size of the Soviet Union.
As I recall Oil prices spiked just a couple of months after the collaspe.
With the savings from not supporting the East Bloc (and Cuba), and increased revenues from oil along with some other economic reforms...
There is quite a nice ASB timeline (and in that forum) on this subject, called Gorbachev MkII I think. It is very long and detailed and rather interesting. It is about 50 pages or so and he is still in the late 1980s!
It is of course ASB but the ASB is understated and he does spend some time speculating as to how things play out.
It is of course ASB but the ASB is understated and he does spend some time speculating as to how things play out.
Snake Featherston
Banned
Problem with this is that the USSR had by creating ethnic-based SSRs provided a potentially big problem. The Soviet Union's leaders ignored issues on the periphery until it was too late and then did too little. Economic health overall isn't going to negate the deeper issues that undermined Soviet rule in say, Central Asia or the Caucasus.
Rogue Shadows
Banned
Those are all countries that either were either Soviet allies or had Communist guerillas active in them by 1980 OTL.
Make no mistake, the Soviet Union has to tread carefully in the New World - the USA is a bigger foil for a USSR triumphant than the Russian Federation is for America in our timeline.
The USA isn't necessarily ignoring the problem, but they have a lot of their own problems to deal with and so can't respond effectively.
I'm not worried (much) about Seoul, I'm worried about the average Korean on the street who, you'll recall, still remembers Japanese occupation and what it meant.
I'd actually hate to guess what Koreans in 1950 would prefer - the as-yet unknown problems of communism, or the known problems of Japanese troops on their soil. For that matter, without UN aid, would there even BE a South Korea?
While not divided into ethnic SSRs like the Soviet Union, China has separatist movements in Tibet and Xinjiang at least as dedicated as those that existed in the USSR in the 1980's. It was glasnot that allowed those groups to organize, without glasnot ethnic separatism would have remained mostly latent, and any outbreaks of rioting could be dealt with by security forces, while censorship would minimize the outcry. Worked for China in 2008.
Violence on the periphery is simply not going to topple the central committee unless there is some kind of army insurrection, which would be unlikely unless the protesters they were ordered to fight were ethnic Russians.
Dan Reilly The Great
Banned
could Russia adopt the Chinese model? Maybe use their oil reserves to pressure europe into accepting favorable trade agreements?
Of course you would probably need gorbachev to start on this course pretty early.
Of course you would probably need gorbachev to start on this course pretty early.