What if...the Shining Path reach power

The Shining Path could reach power for at least five years with the right point of divergence?


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The Lima Earthquake of the 84'
The Two Earthquakes

In the year 1982, the City of Lima was shaken for what's considered the worst natural disaster in Peruvian history and -in hindsight- the worst in Latin American history.

At the 4:37 PM of October' 31th, in middle of the processions and the liturgies, Lima was shaken for a powerful earthquake of 8 in the Ritcher scale. The survivors words define that moment of horror that would permanently change the peruvian history.

"The oldest buildings, our limenian prides started to fall and several of the most humble and crowded churches couldn't do anything but fall" says Doña Pepa, a afro-peruvian woman who refuses to say her real name.

"Fortunately, the Señor de los Milagros (a afro-peruvian representation of Jesus) didn't let me die. I was saved for a nice chinese woman in middle of all that chaos. We become good friends, sadly she died when the Shining Path came to the capital. I'll never forget those sons of whore."

"It was horrible for us in the poor neighborhoods, but it was even worse for the ones in the center. Their buildings fell in mass. People running away to "safe" zones and stomping over each other. Only God knows how many people died for it or worse, after it"

While we know that many died in the first day, is hard to calculate how many died in the movement or in it's aftermath. But what's clear is that one week after it, Lima lose more than 4000 of it's citizens in what's considered the worst disaster of the city in the century, rivalized only with the Shining Path' massacres in it.

A anecdote famous between the superstitious is that the famous honed stone of Lima craked in middle of the earthquake and that -acording to the legend that said that the devil was inside of it- it meaned that Satan himself had being freed.

Given the tragedies that tormented Peru in the years to come, that old legend easily got popularity in the collective peruvian imaginery.
 
Abandoned for the Lord
And now I'm returning to this amateurish TL. I should note that I'm striving less to historical accuracy and more to having some drama about a different Peru. Said this, all help to keep this TL into "somewhat realistic" territory would be appreciated.

Now...

2. Abandoned for the Lord.

The Eighties weren't happy years for Peru, the Earthquake of the 82 had damaged both it's goverment, economy and morale. Lima was a mess and rebuilding it would be harsh; some hoped that this would mean the end of the centralization of Peruvian society, but they were proven wrong in all ways. Lima survived, but Lima survived by stealing from its family.

The people from the Andes, overwhelmy native and mestizo, were forced to work in ways that they believed gone after the Agrarian Reform. Things were never good for them, but somehow the disaster managed to turn it from back to worse. Their labor was used in what was basically a Mita by another name to get pay for goods used in the Capital. Lima managed to recover, but the people from the andean regions would resent it for years.

The years of exploitation would harm the already poor relationships between the andean regions and the people from the cities on the coast. A rage that would be used for the terrorist group know as the Shining Path to get more adepts.

The Shining Path started as a group of losers that could only burn the voting cards of a small town but with the rightful rage of the rural people, the group would grew and become a nightmare that scared the international community.

And thus, without knowing, the Peruvian goverment created its worse enemy. In a truly horrific mix of apathy, racism and classicism, the Peruvian elites created monsters.

The Shining Path, lead for Abimael Guzman, better know as President Gonzalo (Chairman Gonzalo), was surprisingly charismatic. It targetted abusive bussinessmen, bad bosses, local thieves and other people that the suffered ruralists hated. They were known as heroes for the people.

Few could imagine the attrocities that they would commit. But those few already knew that something was wrong.
 
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Off topic. But now I have a rought idea for this TL. I don't care for spoilers and personally, in the case of Alternate Histories, is better knwoing that is going to happen.

To put it short.

The era of the SL would end in the 2000-2001. It would be short lived but intense, it wouldn't be a Peruvian Killing Fields, but it would be a fucking horror. Wouldn't be surprised if we hit the million mark of deaths.

The Shining Path TTL would be able to take Lima itself and rule several parts of the country, their rule would be brief (one or two years at most) but bloody. USA would intervene eventually due to pression for part of Chile and other countries of the region, which are worried for the amount of Peruvian inmigrants and the leftist extremism. By 2001, the Peruvian civilian goverment would be back in bussiness again. I know that such a event leaves a lot of wonderful butterflies at a international level, and that is why I want it to be the Great Finale.
 

CalBear

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Amazing. Still, I'm a bit of a sadic regarding history. So...what would be a good Divergence Point to create a, em, Peruvian Genocide? Not necessarily a dictatorship for decades but a LOT of Murder?

Peruvian Genocide Timeline. That's something that I would love to write.
Y'all REALLY don't want to establish a POD specifically to allow for mass deaths. That falls under advocating genocide.
 
I've changed my mind since my first post here and I'm more on the mood to want a TL about the effects, the why and how of a possible stronger Shining Path. Now, as seen for the current "updates", Is less about the mass murder and more about me trying to explore the reasons of why a group as nutty as the SP could rise to power OTL and making them worse ITTL.

Basically, your typical dystopian TL but set in a smaller scale. I'm not advocating for mass murder, I'm peruvian myself.
 
A Shining, Burning Path
(I dunno if my acclaration of this not being a mass death scenario works (It likely was too close to one) or if I should do a new thread while copypasting my current process, recommendations? Anyway, new chapter)

Extract from A Shining Burning Path: The Origins of Monsters from Mark Jones:

While the Shining Path deserves all the hatred that it deserves, I am in the duty to stress that Peru was far from a utopian or even decent country. In the years before the worst of the Peruvian Civil Conflict, or as many call them, The Peruvian Tragedy, the abuses against the Rural populations were massive, at levels that made Peru look like a Colonial nation.
The Agrarian Reform from the general Velasco helped many of them, but it wasn't enought for the poorest peruvians, whose job was taken from them to support the recovery of the capital and the cities of the coast, who were badly affected for the Niño phenomenon.

One particularly ugly story involves a police force gunning down protestors for the heinous crime of wanting to build a school in their rural village. But the abuses weren't limited to the Andes, many workers in the coast were victims of the abuses from their bosses, with a notorious peak of work-related injuries and sickness.

Many lower class people put their hopes in the Leftist candidate Alfonso Barrante Lingán and the elections, however, even with their support, the winner was the Populist Leftist-in-name-only* Alan Garcia, whose goverment lead to one of the worst economical crisis in the country.

Garcia won with barely 51% of votes, requering a second round between him and Barrante. But Barrante decided to accept his defeat and Alan became president. Said victory was part of the radicalization of the andean people, many of them deciding that democracy wasn't worth it and joining the ranks of the Shining Path and similar movements.

Under Alan, the Peruvian economy suffered from a big crisis, which lead to many citizens leaving their country. Meanwhile, in the rural zones, the massacres against farmers became common while Alan turned a eye away to the violence.

And thus, a problem that was building since many years took it's form in the monster known as Alberto Fujimori.

--

Note: The violence of the Shining Path already was big during Alan's goverment. This article is biased in-universe. However, is totally right in that Alan's goverment was a net bad even if the terrorist violence was already really crazy.

Let's say that there some notorious apologists for the Shining Path. What we're seeing him is one of the milder cases, someone who rightfully points to the abuses of the Peruvian goverment and power elites, but who have...somewhat of a weak spot for the Shining Path, not enought to the craziest ones, but still biased towards them. You might notice it for the english name.

And if you wonder why there no different presidents. I should note that the main differences from OTL are in the more remote zones. Alan won anyway because no one cared for the rural populations...and Fujimori won again too.

Thought Fujimori's brand of populism might do better ITTL during the electoral race. And dear God, this isn't going to be pretty.
 
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Opinions from Old Men
  • Wan Zhang "Juan Chang": I loved them at first, They were brave, just like my friends, they fought against the capitalists and while brutal in their methods, is hard to say that their first targets didn't deserve it. However, they become obsessed with power and their initial ideology became another revisionist ethos. By the time they reach Lima, I just could say that I was betrayed again. Animael Guzman is truly one of the monsters of our century, I still carry the scars.
  • Enrique Pérez Torres: Abimael Guzman is the devil! The devil!!! If he had won, he would turned the country into hell incarnated. His gang of antisocial freaks killed my neightboors for daring to call him out on his red heresy! Communism isn't a ideology, is evil incarnated. A evil that killed my son after it found no use to him.
  • Arturo Vidal Cochas: ...I have no words for them. They might all rot in hell, they dressed with red but were just as bigoted, sexist and homophobic as the peruvian society that they wanted to overthrow. I will never forgive them, never.
  • Jonathan Castle: Thugs. Nothing more, nothing less. I came to do bussiness when they appeared. I'm surprised to be still alive, but I'm happy to be alive even if I'm in this wheelchair. Don't worry, I don't hate Peru, they're good for bussiness.
--
Note: Yep, this is the political compass meme. Let's say that no one had a good time.
 
Abimael Guzman ITTL
The nineties became an age filled with internal conflict, the Shining Path and the MRTA had gained widespread support on rural zones and the amount of attacks on civilians were rising at a alarming level.

The Masacre of Lunamarca happened and the Shining Path, with the explicit aproval of Abimael Guzman himself, masacrated a entire town in the Peruvian andes. However, as is well known, the millitary wasn't better, which just radicalizated both sides.

Things became worse with the victory of populist Alberto Fujimori in 1990, whose goverment caused a economic shock which ended up radicalizating more civilians. The goverment didn't knew it, but the worst was to begin.

--

The Tragedy of Abimael Guzman


While Abimael Guzman and the Shining Path were always violent, the nineties were the moment were many historians considerate that Guzman went to the deep end and started to propose more and more radical means and measures. The current Peruvian economic crisis was too extreme, enough that many were willing to call it a Failed State which just served to radicalizate the populace. While the people in the coastal cities were able to stand the crisis without many issues, the Shining Path eventually annunciated themselves with the Tarata bombings.

Abimael Guzman was a teacher turned terrorist leader and infamous for his charisma. Under his leadership, the Shining Path eventually devoloped a doctrine known as "Demolition", referincing one of Abimael's more iconic phrases.

If we want to rebuild a new world, we should demolish, demolish, the old elites. If they cry, shoot them in the head! If their children cry, then give them a choice, to redeem themselves from the crimes of their parents and become real men or to join to their corrupt parents in the bottom of the abyss.

For many, it was hard to understand Abimael's brutality, but a quick look to his life reveals reasons behind his brutality.

Ilegimate son of a bussinessman who ignored him and a mother who abandoned him as soon had the opportunity, Abimael's life was far from pleasant. As weird as it sounds, the biggest killer of Peruvian soldiers in the modern era used to dream to be a militar and admired the WW2 Allies as a whole.

I don't hope that my writings are seen as a apology, Chairman Gonzalo is truly a monster, even Hitler and Stalin were victims of their era before becoming monsters, I'm of the personal belief that the biggest monsters are born from tragedy...but that there a point were the brutality is so vast that even the saddest past can't justify them, that is when we stop talking about mere brutality and start to call it for another word: Evil.

Eventually, Abimael's Demolition strategy manifested in many ways. The infamous Lucanamarca Massacre that killed dozens of civilians is widely considered to the the Divergence Point where Abimael's idealism vanished completely and was remplaced for nothing but blind rage. The exact reason is unknown, but many biographers considerate that after the massacre that he himself ordered caused him to have a time of meditation which made him to embrace the violence even more than in the past.

---
Note: The Demolition doctrine is from this TL, Abimael's brutality wasn't that planned ITTL and he had some moral concerns, this TL had a the premise that, after the Lucanamarca massacre, Abimael, now even more radical due to the fails of the Peruvian govt., decides to embrace the brutality.

However, this is also motivates for his own personality cult, which also existed IOTL...lets see how this goes and how it will affect Peru for the years to come.

ShiningPathFiveYears.jpg


...Let's say that Abimael had...a ego.
 
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BigBlueBox

Banned
I remember hearing a little about the Shining Path in the early 1990s. An American college student told me that he had heard they believed in public flogging for men who had committed domestic violence. And, yes, if you or I hear some of the details about domestic violence, we might well want to do public flogging in response. But, probably a bad idea nonetheless! , for starters it would increase the motive all the more for the woman, or less commonly the male victim, to keep the whole thing a secret, which the victim is already highly motivated to do to in the first place.
I've heard an argument that corporal punishment is the most appropriate punishment for domestic violence because the abusive husband is usually the breadwinner so imprisoning or fining him will not only hurt him but also hurt his wife, punishing both victim and perpetrator. If corporal punishment is used then the perpetrator will be taught a lesson but will be able to return to work.
 
Alliance between the MRTA and the Shining Path
The Movimiento Revolucionario Tupac Amaru (Revolutionary movement Tupac Amaru), better know as the MRTA were another Leftist terrorist group. Despite that, the MRTA and the Shining Path were common enemies due to their ideological differences.

The MRTA was initially supported for Gadaffi, who tried to convince them to work with the Shining Path. Despite the initial doubts, ultimately, Guzman and Polay were working together in a uneasy alliance that only hoped to survive until they overthrew the goverment.

Despite some brutal killings, Shining Path members in the capital managed to paint themselves as liberators of the opressed. Plans for a bombing in middle of the city were stopped in order to avoid direct confrontation with the civilians, hoping to convince them to join their ranks.

However, under this disguise, the Shining Path also forced teenagers to join their ranks at gunpoint and in the andean regions, Abimael's plans to take Lima were starting to work. Recent information reveals that Guzman could have being captured in the 92, but the intervention of president Alberto Fujimori prevented the authorities from doing it. It wasn't the first time that he did it, but Alberto knew that without Guzman, he couldn't keep justifying his decade long goverment.

Guzman and Fujimori's war on the countryside is remembered as particularly cruel, with forces lead for Fujimori and his right hand, Vladimiro Montesino being especially brutal to the more isolated communities, including a program of forced sterlizations designed to, in their minds, modernize the country.

Under a conflict between despicable monsters, many persons from the andes decided to join Guzman and support his ideology just for the sake of survival. Meanwhile, Fujimori and Montesinos started to realize that their control was becoming weaker with the time, something which them blamed uniquely in the countryside to justify further opression.

In the apparently civilizated Lima, a wave of political murders was felt, with many public figures dissapearing during the last decade of the millenium.

Meanwhile, in another continent Gadaffi kept funding money to a group that was spiraling out of control every day, some say that it was a sudden outburst out of madness, but other sources especulate personal motives while others say that Gadaffi was still a idealistic supporting a leftist revolution. To this day, his support for a group that clearly didn't listened to him is still a mistery.
 
I post here to remember that this TL is not dead...technically.

Thought given some changes about the very subject of this TL...

I might create a new TL and move all my old writing there. Because let's be blunt, the Shining Path ITTL would cause more damage, likely forcing America to intervene and other horrid actions.

But no, they wouldn't rule Peru. They will fail. Ergo, the title of this thread is...outdated.

More news later.
 
Change of hands
In the late 80’s, the Sendero-MRTA alliance backed with Gadaffi’s support continued to strengthen itself in the most unexpected place, the cities.

Initially a rural movement, the citadines were filled with resentment to their former goverments, with the younger and more idealistic ones joining to the ranks of extremist groups.

Meanwhile, Abimael Guzman and Victor Polay Campos competed for the leadership of the alliance, with both men sending spies inside each other’s groups. The ideological fight escalated so much that assasinations and even outright armed fights became a reality. A reality that ended in the 90s; where Guzman followers managed to kidnap Polay and brought him to the Chairman Gonzalo himself.

The Chairman’s anger towards the MRTA was well known, with the Shining Path having being forced to ally with hated counterrevolutionaries that received more support. However, Guzman knew a way to stop his pupils from forgetting the true path while receiving he so-needed funds and weapons that he needed.

A commonly ignored element when discussing the history of how the Shining Path managed to achieve so much power was the existence of sympathizers inside the armed forces. Usually forgotten in the modern talks due to the Fuji-Montensinist regime using it as justification for political firings, the sympathizers existed and while they were far from the dangerous country-threatening menaces that the Fuji-Montesinist regime used as propaganda, they were responsible of one of the most dramatic assassinations in the history of Latin America.

Peruvian citizens cheered when Victor Polay Campos’s body was found.

According to the official story, the army managed to capture him, leading to a fighting between the armed forces and the Senderista-MRTAist forces. A fight in which Victor Polay lost his life due to a explosion caused for a stray bullet.

In truth, the Peruvian government invented such a story to hide the fact that they simply found him dead, unaware of the truth.

As the Shining Path and the MRTA members loyal to their alliance mourned the death of one of their leaders, Guzman talked about keeping Polay’s will and promised to continue his struggle against oppression. However, as he was alone with his private circle, Abimael simply asked for a cold, cold beer. A beer for a victory of Marxism-Lenninism-Maoist-Gonzalo Thought.

Oye tú, tráeme una Cerveza helada, una bien, ¡bien helada!
 
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