I was pondering-- what if World War I broke out as a result of the Russo-Japanese war thanks to the Ango-Japanese alliance and France's alliance with Russia? While many today think it to be out of the question given the near century the UK and France have been best of pals, it certainly wasn't impossible. Tensions in the late 1800's were high with disputes like the Fashoda incident occuring. That, and in addition Germany was seeking an Alliance with the United Kingdom-- could it be possible that we see a war staring the French and the Russians fighting against the British and Germans? A few tweaks in history and the relations between France and Great Britain could be permanently soured, prompting the creation of an Anglo-German alliance. After the start of conflict we could see Germany invade France preemptively or mobilize thus beginning the World War due to the possibility of France defending Russia thus calling Britain and then Germany into the war anyway. In addition, where would the other powers throw their weight in the conflict?(USA, Austria-Hungary, Italy, China, Ottoman Empire) In addition, who would have won that war?
What if the Russo-Japanese war sparks WW1?
- Thread starter PaleoT
- Start date
I can't see this happening. The war was off at the butt end of nowhere as far as the European powers were concerned, Russia and Japan were fighting over concessions in a part of China the British and French were not interested or involved in. Neither country was going to lose any national territory, and neither was in any danger of a foreign army anywhere on its soil. Sure Japan was beating the crap out of the Russians locally but Japan suffered significant casualty numbers, and was pretty much broke and in no shape to march in to Siberia or attack Vladivostok. Given all this, and the desire of both belligerents to come to the bargaining table, I don't see any way others get dragged in to this - certainly not creating a situation leading to a general European, and subsequent world, war.
If Skippy the ASB starts a war, with the UK and France going at it and the Germans coming in with the Brits and the Russians with the French the only other power I can see getting involved is Austria-Hungary jumping in to set Russia back, both for some territorial gains and to take the "big brother" of the Balkan Slavs down a few pegs. The Ottomans have enough problems keeping their collection of moving parts called an empire together, and the Italians have no dog in the fight - they are more aligned with the French but will definitely stay out, of course if the French are seen as going down and Nice is offered they may jump in. While TR is the president, and always looking for a scrap the USA really has no involvement here. Sure the RN will be blockading the French coast, but the US won't go to war over that. As far as China goes, they are in no condition to fight anyone...
If Skippy the ASB starts a war, with the UK and France going at it and the Germans coming in with the Brits and the Russians with the French the only other power I can see getting involved is Austria-Hungary jumping in to set Russia back, both for some territorial gains and to take the "big brother" of the Balkan Slavs down a few pegs. The Ottomans have enough problems keeping their collection of moving parts called an empire together, and the Italians have no dog in the fight - they are more aligned with the French but will definitely stay out, of course if the French are seen as going down and Nice is offered they may jump in. While TR is the president, and always looking for a scrap the USA really has no involvement here. Sure the RN will be blockading the French coast, but the US won't go to war over that. As far as China goes, they are in no condition to fight anyone...
Although it will be disruptive and harm pockets of the German economy, overall I would think this would be *very* profitable for Germany, strategically and economically, considering they have the least skin in the game in the regions where the Franco-Russian and Anglo-Japanese spheres collide. Germany "the arsenal of demo....", I mean "the arsenal of ideologically diverse alliances".
How would you have France and Germany on the same side at this point? Any French premier who tried that wouldn't be long for his office at all, and you can bet his successor would reverse the decision double quick.
You tell me. How did this happen? Or this? As strange as it sounds, the Franco-German rivalry didn't really extend to East Asia, and both countries were suspicious of Japan, not least since they were seen as British lackies, and neither country was quite ready to trust Britain either. And keep in mind, Alsace-Lorraine was revived as a major issue by the start of World War One, its importance wasn't a continuous drumbeat for further war for forty years straight. I think that war might actually have been more avoidable than people give credit for.
I think a lot of people have forgot what made the First World War a World War. It was the intricate web of alliances, and it was an eventuality that one person in the web get into a conflict indirectly or directly with another in the web thus setting off the world war. The Anglo-Japanese alliance, while intended to be defensive in nature could be made a volatile flash point if conditions are right or if Britain feels that they should take a more belligerent stance on the Russo-French Alliance. One other agitator, is an Anglo-German Alliance-- which isn't something out of the ballpark. Germany persued an Alliance with Great Britain and Great Britain refused consistsantly; citing their growing relationship in France. But if disputes in Colonial Africa went even a little differently, Britain might see France as more of an enemy than Germany ever would be. Lets keep in mind-- Germany preemptively invaded France in OTL due to growing fears of Russian Mobilization in aid of the Serbs against Austria-Hungary who was allied with Germany. At a time, experts debated whether or not the conflict would proceed on a Grander scale. Point is, we'd see a similar chain of alliances-- Japan declares war on Russia, France mobilizes incase Great Britain intervenes(which is now a concern given the Anglo-German Alliance) and Germany invades France due to resulting mobilization. Could nothing happen? Quite possibly. But could something happen? I'd venture to say yes.
In regards to the Ottomans, forgot that they hadn't signed the Ottoman-German Alliance treaty as of yet-- but if they were promised land in the Caucausus, what would stop them from joining? In our timeline, they honored the alliance despite their situation, so if territory was promised wouldn't they be even more inclined to assist?
As for Italy, Italy joined WW1 on the promise of Austrian-Hungarian territories and so thus, what would stop them from taking the same oppurtunity again?
The extent of the relevancy of the Triple Intervention is questionable, and it's interesting that Germany took part of it in any case. In addition, a Russo-Japanese wouldn't directly involve China thus Germany has little reason to worry about their precious treaty ports. It was France and Russia that had higher stakes with the taking of Liangdong, As it was in Russia's backyard and territorial interests and thus France's as well given French-Russo relations at the time.
I don't think the lack of immediate interests would effect the Great Power's behavior. In our World War I, none of them cared about the stated Casus Belli of enforcing a Serbian Ultimatum(With exception to ofcourse Austria-Hungary and Russia). They joined thanks to a combination of Alliances and Self-Interests. While it does require some things falling into place, I believe it to possible-- perhaps with a POD in the Fashoda conflict or the potential dispute of Egypt between Britain and France, ostracizing France and Great Britain and pushing the UK closer to Germany, thus souring relations even more. This would make the UK de facto enemies with Russia given the French and Russian Alliance and may thus lead to an alteration of the Anglo-Japanese alliance with more offensive capabilities.
It still shows that Franco-German enmity wasn't the sole consideration for either's foreign policy in this period, so German's not guaranteed to join a dogpile as soon as an opportunity presents itself. The bigger question, though, is why France would want to get drawn into a scrap over the Far East. There's not much they can offer Russia as assistance, and even if relations with Britain sour, that doesn't change the fact that they're at too great of a disadvantage to plausibly win a colonial war. Combine all of that with the still present threat of Germany taking advantage of their distractions, and it seems unlikely that this could escalate too far.
I'm not going to lie-- In no way would World War I be a certainty in this scenario but I'd like to mantain that this is in the realm of reasonable plausability. As for France, they would likely mobilize for the sake of preparedness-- if the Anglo-Japanese alliance holds true, theres always a chance that Great Britain(Especially if the treaty was altered which could be a possibility given how Great Britain would not have good relations with the Russians given their belligerence towards France) would get involved anyway which would call in France regardless. And mobilization was enough to get Germany to declare war in our time line, so I don't see why it couldn't happen again- and even if Germany did not, Germany would be called in if either France or Great Britain took part in the war.
Also, on a side note what would happen to Belgium? Would it be ignored as Germany would be unwilling to go against the wins of it's ally, The United Kingdom? Or would Germany invade with the consent of the Brits? Is Belgium just giving access to the Germans out of the question?
As I understand it, a major reason that the Belgians chose to fight in 1914 was that they were overconfident in the strength of their fortifications. Those are more modern in the 1900's than the 1910's, and the Big Berthas that took them IOTL weren't built yet. I think the Belgians fight, although they probably still won't win, since the Germans could improvise using naval guns or the like.
As for Britain, I think they'd begrudgingly consent to this. The general interpretation of the Treaty of London was such that it was a collective duty of the signatories to protect Belgian neutrality, but not so binding on any one party. They'd be less than happy to see Germany approach the Channel ports that way, and would probably make a point of brokering Belgian independence afterwards, but they've gotta deal with one enemy at a time.
Suppressing the Boxers in concert with nations they didn't otherwise trust was setting aside grievances temporarily for a common aim, no more. Same goes for the other item. Not buying the fact that contention over Elsaß-Lothringen (I did that deliberately to yank Francophile chains :-D ) wasn't strong for about 35 years by this point, given that in Paris the statue of Strasbourg was kept draped in black. You cited a couple of exceptions, that's true, but those are no more than blips--data outliers, if you will--given the overarching German policy of crushing France once and for all, and the corresponding French policy of revanche.
The terms of both the Franco-Russian alliance and the Anglo-Japanese alliance actually didn't mandate unconditional support for the ally and in this case they perfectly balanced against one another. The alliances didn't mandate the ally join its ally in a 1-on-1 war, it mandated that if a 3rd power got in, the ally was obligated to even the scales.
Well one incident so far not mentioned is the Dogger Bank Action, where Russian ships attacked British fishing trawlers. If more ships had been lost, and a more belligerent Russian response, get Britain to attack Russia. Then might France reluctantly come to the aid of Russia? Germany, A-H, Italy, and the Ottomans maybe deciding to join for their own opportunities?
I think the Dogger Bank incident as a spark for war has been done before on this board, although I cannot recall any details on what Britain's military/naval objectives were, what France did, etc.
A more belligerent Russian response is kind of hard to imagine. Surely St. Pete must have realized that it was stupid for the navy to have proceeded on the assumption that a Japanese ambush was possible in the *North Sea*.
If Dogger Bank escalates however, France is just hating life. Keep its Russian alliance and face war with Britain/Japan, or avoid war with Britain and Japan at the cost of the alliance with Russia. I'm not sure if there is any factor that could make the French confident in victory in this case. If France went to war out of a sense of obligation they would have to hope a war is not very long and can be settled with minimal change. That would give the French the difficult task of declaring war to stand by Russia while working double-time to come to a resolution that minimizes damages and that Russia feels is a satisfactory deal for both alliance partners. The fact that the most powerful neutral in the whole mix was Germany just would make things worse from Paris' point of view.
A more belligerent Russian response is kind of hard to imagine. Surely St. Pete must have realized that it was stupid for the navy to have proceeded on the assumption that a Japanese ambush was possible in the *North Sea*.
If Dogger Bank escalates however, France is just hating life. Keep its Russian alliance and face war with Britain/Japan, or avoid war with Britain and Japan at the cost of the alliance with Russia. I'm not sure if there is any factor that could make the French confident in victory in this case. If France went to war out of a sense of obligation they would have to hope a war is not very long and can be settled with minimal change. That would give the French the difficult task of declaring war to stand by Russia while working double-time to come to a resolution that minimizes damages and that Russia feels is a satisfactory deal for both alliance partners. The fact that the most powerful neutral in the whole mix was Germany just would make things worse from Paris' point of view.
I just don't see war escalating. Russians would have to act totally irrationally regarding Dogger Banks incident. They didn't want war with UK, therefore they paid compensation.
I can't see UK going to war either if Russians apologise in even most half-hearted manner.
Wilhelm II was all into yellow menace, and was trying to align Russia with Germany. IOTL Wilhelm vocally supported Russia in 1904-1905 against Japan.
I can see Treaty of Bjorko becoming reality.
If war breaks out, UK supports Japans and Germany supports Russia. France might balk at fighting Germany without Russian alliance, and stay out.
I can't see UK going to war either if Russians apologise in even most half-hearted manner.
Wilhelm II was all into yellow menace, and was trying to align Russia with Germany. IOTL Wilhelm vocally supported Russia in 1904-1905 against Japan.
I can see Treaty of Bjorko becoming reality.
If war breaks out, UK supports Japans and Germany supports Russia. France might balk at fighting Germany without Russian alliance, and stay out.
One additional way to widen the war: Seeing the Russian Baltic fleet transit around the Horn of Africa, the Japanese have warning the Russians are coming and that they are stopping off in German and French ruled ports to re-coal. Not wanting the Russians to get so close to Japan as tsushima, the japanese concentrate their fleet around Taiwan, and then pounce on French Indochina to deny the Russian Baltic Fleet coal and facilities stored there and to steal it for themselves, while the Russians. Japan's attack on French Indochina activates both alliances now that Japan is fighting two enemies now instead of just one.
In a Franco-Russian versus Anglo-Japanese war, Germany has a few options:
Though it was supportive of Russian Far Eastern policy, Germany is not obligated by any signed and ratified alliance to help Russia or France in a war, so it will be neutral unless it deliberately decides to declare war on one side or the other.
So, a neutral Germany can:
a) sit and be happy making money from both sides and building up its fleet, while the country remains at peace.
b) use the moment to press colonial claims, not directly against the empires' of either belligerent but against weak non-European states. The first that comes to mind is Morocco. The second is Siam [although here, there might be some Franco-British fighting at the Indochinese-Burmese border, but I kinda doubt it because it is remote as hell and very far inland.] Grabbing a piece of China like Hainan island might be a way to go too. Maybe Italy could coordinate with Germany in all this, and pick this time to invade Libya [not sure they were militarily ready].
c) use the moment to do a colonial landgrab from one of the weak European neutrals not under the protection of either the Franco-Russian or Anglo-Japanese alliance.
Portugal might be the most tempting target, as it occupies a marginal position in Europe, far from Germany. Its African colonies could be tacked onto the German ones, and perhaps East Timor as well. Alternatively, Germany could do a "humanitarian intervention" against the Congo Free State [but not metropolitan Belgium], and get a Mittelafrika sea-to-sea corridor running from Tanganyika to the mouth of the Congo or even to Kamerun. Or it could snatch the DEI.
A Germany aligning with Russia and France cannot expect to get much territory on its own, and it puts more of its overseas territories at risk, but it can deepen economic influence over Russia and the continent and embolden the Russians and French into prolonging their war with Britain.
A Germany aligning with Britain, can probably gain some favorable border adjustments in Poland and Lorraine (Briey-Longwy), hurt the French and Russian militaries and be able to increase some of the orange territory on the map of Africa, mainly at the expense of France.
In a Franco-Russian versus Anglo-Japanese war, Germany has a few options:
Though it was supportive of Russian Far Eastern policy, Germany is not obligated by any signed and ratified alliance to help Russia or France in a war, so it will be neutral unless it deliberately decides to declare war on one side or the other.
So, a neutral Germany can:
a) sit and be happy making money from both sides and building up its fleet, while the country remains at peace.
b) use the moment to press colonial claims, not directly against the empires' of either belligerent but against weak non-European states. The first that comes to mind is Morocco. The second is Siam [although here, there might be some Franco-British fighting at the Indochinese-Burmese border, but I kinda doubt it because it is remote as hell and very far inland.] Grabbing a piece of China like Hainan island might be a way to go too. Maybe Italy could coordinate with Germany in all this, and pick this time to invade Libya [not sure they were militarily ready].
c) use the moment to do a colonial landgrab from one of the weak European neutrals not under the protection of either the Franco-Russian or Anglo-Japanese alliance.
Portugal might be the most tempting target, as it occupies a marginal position in Europe, far from Germany. Its African colonies could be tacked onto the German ones, and perhaps East Timor as well. Alternatively, Germany could do a "humanitarian intervention" against the Congo Free State [but not metropolitan Belgium], and get a Mittelafrika sea-to-sea corridor running from Tanganyika to the mouth of the Congo or even to Kamerun. Or it could snatch the DEI.
A Germany aligning with Russia and France cannot expect to get much territory on its own, and it puts more of its overseas territories at risk, but it can deepen economic influence over Russia and the continent and embolden the Russians and French into prolonging their war with Britain.
A Germany aligning with Britain, can probably gain some favorable border adjustments in Poland and Lorraine (Briey-Longwy), hurt the French and Russian militaries and be able to increase some of the orange territory on the map of Africa, mainly at the expense of France.
Thothian
Banned
I can't see the Russo-Japanese war sparking a general war. Too much ASB.
A more interesting POD for this conflict would be if Japan refused to make peace, and after wiping out the Russian Pacific fleet, invaded Siberia. Mainly with the idea of taking control of the Siberian Pacific coast and all its cities/ports.
A more interesting POD for this conflict would be if Japan refused to make peace, and after wiping out the Russian Pacific fleet, invaded Siberia. Mainly with the idea of taking control of the Siberian Pacific coast and all its cities/ports.