What if...the Russians won a victory in the Russo-Japanese war?

As unlikely as this would honestly be, it would be interesting to learn about the aftermath. A Russian victory across all fronts on the Asian continent would mean greater territories to the Czar, a Russian occupied Korean peninsula, and a diminished Japan, as well. A preserved Russian fleet at Tsushima, and so on. Perhaps the Soviets would never come to power...what do you think?
 
I don't know if it would prevent the Czar from being removed since WW1 really fucked the economy of Russia but it would certainly help his position.

Anyway Manchuria would likely fall completely under Russia's influence, though how much such as if it's annexed later I can't say. Port Arthur would remain under Russian control. Korea might actually be annexed by the Russians. As for Japan, this might actually kill their whole imperialist game. In fact, they might never rise to become a great power after this.
 

Old Airman

Banned
I don't know if it would prevent the Czar from being removed since WW1 really fucked the economy of Russia but it would certainly help his position.
It could butterfly the Duma away, and remove sole alternative to the Emperor there was in Feb. 1917. So, as royally pissed off as Russians were in 1917, without Duma they can just decide to endure a bit more, as there's no alternative to Nikkie.

On the flip side, the boiler of Russian society developed a significant pressure by 1905 even without war. Not having safety valve of Duma might just blow the whole thing apart earlier than IOTL.

Anyway Manchuria would likely fall completely under Russia's influence, though how much such as if it's annexed later I can't say. Port Arthur would remain under Russian control. Korea might actually be annexed by the Russians.
Manchuria being relatively underpopulated at those times (government actually prohibited Han settlement there till very late 19th century) and possessing shitload of agricultural land, I think Russia seriously toyed with idea of outright annexation of the territory a-la Central Asia. Korea, however, was always considered too remote (at least Southern part of it). I think the most Russiawankish scenario without stepping into ASB territory would be Russian "protectorate" over Northern Korea and Manchuria (everything North of Chinese Eastern Railway) becoming part of the Empire.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
As unlikely as this would honestly be

I think a Russian victory in the Russo-Japanese War is more likely that many people think. In fact, Japan was virtually bankrupt towards the end of hostilities, which is one of the reasons the Japanese were so willing to accept President Roosevelt's offer of mediation. Fiscal factors are too often overlooked in alternative history, but are just as important as military and political factors.
 
I don't know if it would prevent the Czar from being removed since WW1 really fucked the economy of Russia but it would certainly help his position.

Well WWI would be averted, as Austria-Hungary only annexed Bosnia because Russia seemed to weak to do anything against it, after the loss of the Russa-Japanese war. If Russia wins, Bosnia isn't annexed and Franz Ferdinand won't be there to be assasinated.
 
I agree with a lot of what's been said: the lack of an outbreak in 1905 triggered by the war could potentially mean one not too long after triggered simply by the growing social strains with no avenue for political expression except violence. The course of a large-scale breakdown of the Tsarist regime happeneing without an ongoing total war are fascinating and ought to be given proper examination somewhere.

The alliance system will be disrupted before 1914, though, since Britain was a sponsor of Japan and this war will set back our interests in the Far East (note, interestingly, that we hadn't wanted Japan to make war because we thought Russia would win), affecting the rapproachement with Russia.

By 1905, you already had the essential causes of the world conflagration in place. I think its rather more likely than not that *WW1 still breaks out: Bosnia was far from the only hotspot in the world. With a domestically unstable Ottoman Empire and a gaggle of ambitious Balkan states, something is going to go wrong before long. But the time and the place and the exact nature of the alliances will change.
 
This puts Russia and the UK at a place to more likely butt heads. There may not be a UK-Russia entente in 1907 because of it so many unresolved questions across Asia including Iran, Afghanistan, and Tibet. With such a strong Russian presence in Manchuria, I doubt the Chinese would care so much about the fate of Tibet and may see territorial claims by the British over it and Afghanistan.

The China situation would definitely get interesting because, depending on what is happening in Europe, Russia could get more involved than any outside nation did IOTL.

As for Europe and the Balkans, Russia might have closer ties with Bulgaria and Serbia, and they might be even more ambitious against the Ottomans because of this support.

Hmm... yes many interesting possibilities.
 
Top