What if the Russians win?

Probably Galicia and parts of Polish territories of Germany. And from Ottomans Russians might get Armenian territories. But I don't think that anyone would accept Russian control over Constantinople.

You could have Russian take some Ottoman territories, without Ottomans joining war, but you have to be creative.
Lets say that Russians get wind of planned raid, and manage to ambush Ottoman ships, cut off their route of escape, and sink them. Ottoman government is humiliated both by complete failure of raid, and being unable to control it's own Navy, not to mention completely defenceless at sea.
Russian warships threaten to shell Constantinople, so Sublime Porte agrees to expel German military mission, let Russians occupy (not annex, but defacto same thing) Armenia, and to completely open straits to Entente ships.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Let me clarify the thread because the most important point was missed though Sheliak Lawyer alluded to it.

The thread is supposed to be about what happens if the Russians are the real victors strong enough to dictate the terms of the peace and that hte war is short. With the Eastern armies defeated and the Germans forced tied down in the West, the rapid defeat of the Austro Germans takes place especially the Austrians. The Germans can still defend themselves but that's it. They can't help Austria and their position will only get worse

As we all agree, the Russians are likely to be generous to the Germans- they have no real quarrel and a strong Germany would keep the French in the Russian camp

The real question at the end is: What happens to Britain? With Austria gone, Germany chastised and France dependent on Russia, what is the fate of Britain? What happens to the Austrian and German navies and can Russia extract vengeance on Britain for everything back to the Crimean War

Does the continent make peace at the expense of Britain and Japan?
I assume with "short war" you mean someting like "back home at X-mas" or even earlier, late Octobre or in Novembre.
I don't believe that Russians can reach Berlin and Vienna and hardly they were intrested go so far.
... esp. in "short war".

The "myth" of a short war in 1914 was exactly that : a myth and fairytale, mostly used to "calm" politicians, industrialists, traders and bankers as well as to reaffirm own hopes and wishes - against sober knowledge within the military itself (even with Moltke).

Therefore :
Assumed Zhilinskiy manages (somehow) to not only expell 8th Army from Prussia but even to crush it Tannenberg-style.
Assumed von Saltza and Plehve manage to crush in the same manner austrian 1st and 4th Army, cutting through Galicia to the Carpathians as planned, cutting them off from Cracow.

This would leave the austrian-hungarian army almost completly destroyed, the hungarian plains open to be exploited and most likely destroy the double-monarchy. But I would assume, taht there would still be time to build up kind of a "last stand" between the alps and slovakian mountains, as well as the "silesian gap" between the Sudeten and slovakian mountains.
The germans would most likely shift everything they have towards the Vistula and the Wartha, leaving in the west "just" enough to defend Lorraine, the Vogese and the belgian border, retreating in belgian hard fighting.

... still can see this lasting at least well into 1915.

Now there's the question of the russian/franco (as "junior partners" to the russians) "offer, that can't be rejected" in - let's say octobre to really make this a "short" war.
  • France has paid a bloody price already, it will demand and get at least A-L. But probably not much more beside some reparations (small, not much more than they had to pay in 1871) and some of the colonies.
  • Belgium will get some more "hefty" reparations to be paid for the destrucions it suffered and as already promised by the germans prior to hostilities.
  • Luxembourg ... not sure if the belgians would really like to "re-incorporate" it. Britain IMO would stand against its incorporation into France, now that there's a chance, that all guarantee-powers of the London treaty of 1856 (? dunno rthe exact date out of my head, the "second" London treaty about the lowlands) can act together at the peace-negotiation table. Most likely it would be reconstituted, but with its railways perhaps "handed" from Germany to France and dissolved from the german customs-union.
  • Serbia gets parts of Syrmia and the Banat to "secure" its capital Belgrade, also the Sandschak/Novizar, an "old bone of contention" between A-H and Serbia, perhaps also control of Bosnia-Herzegowina, maybe in a kind of "personal-union" becomming a "double-kingdom" itself. Croatia also ? Perhaps some coastal parts but more ? ... could become "too big" for the taste of the others (France and Britain), then prone to become onece again THE troublemaker on the Balkan, it was rendered before by them.
  • A-H itself ... not sure, if it wouldn't be "preserved" by France and Britain to "keep some balance", though in a very diminished (less all of Galicia) form with an enforced "confederationalization". However : this shall be a "russian "winner" peace ("vae victis !")
    • all of Galizia goes to Russia, the western part incorporated into an enlarged Poland, now "enjoying" being an "associated" own kingdom, rule by a hand-picked (by moscow) kind of assembly in Warszaw and - again - some "Viceroy", that now is a Romanow ... to "honor" the polish subjects of the Tsar, the eastern part incorporated into russia propper (its ukrainian province, including the ruthenian parts in the Carpathians.
    • Slovakia becomes another "asset" in similar manner of Russia as well as
    • Czechia with the northern and eastern "sudetengerman" regions. The southern german regions might be left with "rump-Austria"
    • Hungary will become independant, less the northern and eastern "slavic" parts and veery close controlled by russian friendly circles. maybe an hungarian King of ... some far fetched Romanov relation ? (Does anybody knows of some "royal" enough hungarian noble able to claim the crown ?)
    • Whats left of Cis-Leithania (including Slovenia, Istria, Tyrol) cam stay independant - with clear obligation never, ever to ally with Germany again in the future.
    • ... and ofc : reparations
  • Italy ... sorry Italy, too late to fight, too late to get something off the cake
  • Romaina ... same as Italy
  • Britain ... might also get some german colonies, will make up a (relativly reasonable) bill for Germany to pay (reparations). ... and will have otherwise a hard time to keep Russia and France from grabbing what's still there of the HSF, but IMO it's unevitable, that they will be distrubuted between the three of them.
  • And ... Russia ?
    • has gained all of Galicia
    • controls the Slovakian mountains and Czechia, reaching deep into middle europe
    • now controls (together with its thankfull "vasall" Serbia and the serbian "vasalls" of Montenegro and Croatia?) the Balkan (Romania and Bulgary will now run to St.Petersburg to get a place on Russias side).
    • has substantially enhanced its navy with german warships.
    • has substantially enhanced its financial position with german and austrian reparations ... and "most favorable" economical agreements
    • and to make things interesting : they demand and get the Kiautschou Bay concession territory from Germany, now occupied by Japan as a replacement for the loss ot Port Arthus
  • Japan is "compensated" with other german pacific holdings, a wee bit "convinced" into acceptance by Britain to do so, as Britain doesn't want to displease the now emerging very Great Power Russia
And now ... I need a break : RL's calling.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
And now for the question :
What happens to Britain?
at a situation as descibed above.

Not very ... favorable IMHO.

During the negotiatons most probably it becomes clear, that prior to the war France was the tail, that tried to wiggle with the ... bear, who is now awake and aware of his power.

The (never really settled, esp. in Persia) "Great Game" towards the Indian Ocean will be opened again, as well as the bickering about the Ottoman Empire :
Russia will get the Dardanells, still, as well as the armenian regions of Little Asia, while Britain and France are relativly "happy" with things in the Ottoman Empire as they are (now that the "newcommer" Germany is out of the game). With the MUCH improved position Russia now has on the Balkan esp. the Dardanells question will become prioritiesed by St.Petersburg.

Also the Far East becomes "interesting" again. Russia will be quite keen on some retaliation to the humiliating end of the (now "first" ?) Russo-Japanes war. With the gained german ships the russians have a nice "core" for a new pacific fleet (... or a mediterrainian fleet ??). And the japanese will be quite pissed, due to the Kiautchou-"arrangements".


Probably Britain will try to "soothe" and intensify relations with Japan, perhaps with offering some more, "financial interesting" supportives measures for the japanese navy (ships, guns, technology). What could well deteriorate relations with Russia also.
Most likely it will, relativly fast, "rethink" about relations to Germany and the (in the previous post forgotten by me) military clauses imposed on Germany. Not easy undertaking since ...
... it will also try to "loosen" the connection between France and Russia, trying to get "firmer" ties to France as well
... trying to square a circle, that would be, IMO. Not to forget, that Italy will be looking for "new" favorable relations to in the meds ...

... "interesting times", indeed.

Luckily (? for Germany ?) the british cabinet did NOT considered this question :
During the July crisis, John Morley asked his cabinet colleagues the simple question "Have you ever considered what will happen if the Russians win?"
Someone recently quoted Benjamin Disraeli. Unfortunatly can't find the post right now, but it roughly goes :
"Britain has no permanent friend and no permanent enemies, but Britain has permanent interest."

Under these auspicies the cabinets decissions may have been ... different.



However, IMO we would see a mayor reshuffle of alliances until 1920 ... at last, with their outcome IMO completly up in the air, take your favored pick.
And then ...
 
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NoMommsen

Donor
Forgot another big, BIG wildcard (beside Italy) : the U S of A

ITTL it wouldn't be very much involved, maybe a few orders for ammunitions, explosives and other stuff, but magnitudes below of IOTL worth. Most likely well below turning the USA from the net debtor it was prior to WW1 into at least a balance but far from becomming THE creditor to (almost) everybody it was after the war IOTL.

How would they play out in the alliances reshuffle ITTL ?
Would it (most likely) stay isolationistic ?
Would it (most likely) try to establish a "Pan-American Prosperity Zone" ? Trying to fight off possible competitors in middle and south america ?
What will happen to its fleet-buildings ? ... and how will this be seen by Britain ?

... more "interesting times" :winkytongue:
 
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