What if the Russians win?

[Aphrodite]

During the July crisis, John Morley asked his cabinet colleagues the simple question "Have you ever considered what will happen if the Russians win?"

A delightful question for us so let's assume the Russians win- The fighting in August-September goes pretty much OTL with a deep German thrust being checked and the Germans falling back.

However, in the East everything goes Russia's way. Rennemkampf punches through the cavalry screen and falls on the rear of the 8th army turning Tannenburg into a crushing Russian victory Meanwhile, in the south Conrad moves even deeper into the trap and the Russian 3rd and 8th are vigorous in closing the circle. Only a scattering of Austrian units get out

Essentially, the Austro-Germans have nothing left in the East and the road to Vienna and Berlin are open for the Russians

What sort of peace terms are likely to be imposed on Germany and Austria and more importantly, what would the military and diplomtic position of Britain and France be?

 

[Kibbutznik]

Russia would probably annex the remainder of German Polish territory and Austrian Galicia, demand the return of Bosnia to Serbia, and maybe even seek the dismemberment of the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

Other than that, the Russians did not possess many goals when it came to the Central powers.

 

[Sheliak Lawyer]

I imagine the Czar exacts a fairly lenient peace treaty-some territories are given to Russia and some limitations are put on Austria and Germany.

Post-war no Russian revolution victory doesn't mean though that Russia's social problems will be solved and might even exacerbate some of their issues.

 

[Lalli]

Probably Galicia and parts of Polish territories of Germany. And from Ottomans Russians might get Armenian territories. But I don't think that anyone would accept Russian control over Constantinople.

But this not yet save Russian monarchy at least czar can't be long being absolute ruler. There will be some form of revolution probably on 1920's.

 

[Sheliak Lawyer]

I'd say any revolutionary crisis will be delayed at least until 1925-once the troubles of modernizing a feudal country with an angry but concentrated working class shows up clearly.

The new conquests and lack of millions of casualties will ensure the Russian populace won't take to the streets-sure they'll be strikes and unrest and agitation but the total discrediting of the monarchy, church, and the parliamentary liberals won't have happened.

 

[Riain]

The Germans formed the 9th army in sept 1914, split 3 armies in the west in October 1924 and formed the 10th army in January 1915.

Great Russian success in the early phase of ww1 won't cause a German collapse.

 

[BooNZ]

Russia would probably annex the remainder of German Polish territory and Austrian Galicia, demand the return of Bosnia to Serbia, and maybe even seek the dismemberment of the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

I do not believe Bosnia was previously part of Serbia...

Other than that, the Russians did not possess many goals when it came to the Central powers.

Aside for the whole Pan-Slav thing that encompasses the Balkan's, the control of the Dardanelles and strengthening its existing hold over Polish territories...

The Germans formed the 9th army in sept 1914, split 3 armies in the west in October 1924 and formed the 10th army in January 1915.

Great Russian success in the early phase of ww1 won't cause a German collapse.

I understand (from memory) the Russian 9th Army was initially positioned to be part of a third offensive into heartland Germany, but this idea (largely to appease the French) was abandoned after the Russian setbacks in East Prussia. I agree the POD does not necessarily result in the sudden German collapse, but A-H probably would.

 

[Jiraiyathegallant]

How strong would Serbia with Bosnia be relative to Bulgaria?

 

[Riain]

I do not believe Bosnia was previously part of Serbia...

Aside for the whole Pan-Slav thing that encompasses the Balkan's, the control of the Dardanelles and strengthening its existing hold over Polish territories...

I understand (from memory) the Russian 9th Army was initially positioned to be part of a third offensive into heartland Germany, but this idea (largely to appease the French) was abandoned after the Russian setbacks in East Prussia. I agree the POD does not necessarily result in the sudden German collapse, but A-H probably would.

That was the 6 weeks the germans had to beat France: the 6 weeks it would take to mobilize the Russian 9th and 10th armies invade Silesia . These were new armies using new rail infrastructure.

 

[Aphrodite]

The Germans formed the 9th army in sept 1914, split 3 armies in the west in October 1924 and formed the 10th army in January 1915.

Great Russian success in the early phase of ww1 won't cause a German collapse.

And all that allowed the Germans to stabilize the Estern front with Austrian help. Here, the Russians still have their 1st and 2nd armies and the Germans have lost their 8th. Germany will be able to form a defensive line along the Oder but that's fine with the Russians.. They really have no long term objectives against Germany and are more interested in crushing Austria Offering generous terms to Germany is in Russia's interests. Russia will want Germany as a check on France- the best solution for the Russians is a Germany that is no threat to Russia but capable of crushing France This makes France choose Russia over Britain in any crises while keeping Germany on friendly terms

The Austrians really have nothing left and the Ottomans, Italians and Romanians are not blind. The Ottomans will stay neutral and the Romanians and Italians are likely to grab what they can as fast as possible. Austria is doomed and then Germany. The Kaiser knows all this- and knows that he can get the best terms by making peace with the Russians fast

 

[Halagaz]

At this time, Petrograd's desired terms were along the lines of:
Russia directly annexes the Lithuanian-Prussian region of Klapeida (from Germany) and eastern Galicia (from Austria). Poznan, Polish parts of Silesia, and western Galicia are annexed to autonomous Poland; OTL's Polish corridor to the sea is kept within Germany.
The Habsburgs are forced to let go of Galicia, Bosnia (to Serbia), Bukovina (to Romania) and maybe, but probably not, Transylvania; maybe the Italian fringes too, maybe not. They keep the rest, but are forced to transform into a federal empire of Austria-Hungary-Czechoslovakia.
Germany loses its colonies, and is nibbled on by France, Belgium etc. as well. The German and Austrian Empires pay some reparations.
The Balkans are slightly rearranged; Bulgaria, Greece and Serbia increase in size, and Italy gets a small foothold.

 

[NoMommsen]

M8s , you forget two (at least) IMO quite important Points :
- Russia thrieves for the Dardanells
and
- FRANCE ...

 

[Kibbutznik]

M8s , you forget two (at least) IMO quite important Points :
- Russia thrieves for the Dardanells
and
- FRANCE ...

This thread asked for Russian goals in a war against Germany and Austria, neither of which include either the Ottomans nor France. French claims are French, and Russian claims to Istanbul are just that: a separate set of claims.

 

[NoMommsen]

This thread asked for Russian goals in a war against Germany and Austria, neither of which include either the Ottomans nor France. French claims are French, and Russian claims to Istanbul are just that: a separate set of claims.

Nope. It asked what happens if Russia wins.
As well as for the situation of all the other belligerents.

If Russia wins, than automatically France wins also. You can't get the one without the other ... in this case.

 

[Sheliak Lawyer]

I think the OP means the Russians quickly and decisively defeat the central powers and have Vienna and Berlin at their feet.

Neither the French or the British would be happy a "Cossackified" Europe.

 

[Aphrodite]

Let me clarify the thread because the most important point was missed though Sheliak Lawyer alluded to it.

The thread is supposed to be about what happens if the Russians are the real victors strong enough to dictate the terms of the peace and that hte war is short. With the Eastern armies defeated and the Germans forced tied down in the West, the rapid defeat of the Austro Germans takes place especially the Austrians. The Germans can still defend themselves but that's it. They can't help Austria and their position will only get worse

As we all agree, the Russians are likely to be generous to the Germans- they have no real quarrel and a strong Germany would keep the French in the Russian camp

The real question at the end is: What happens to Britain? With Austria gone, Germany chastised and France dependent on Russia, what is the fate of Britain? What happens to the Austrian and German navies and can Russia extract vengeance on Britain for everything back to the Crimean War

Does the continent make peace at the expense of Britain and Japan?

 

[Sheliak Lawyer]

The British will not be happy with an empowered Russia as they never were when a power looks like it's about to become hegemon of the continent.

I imagine they will work to redouble their ties to Japan and if they are really nervous about a Tsarist empire flexing its muscles will make nice with Germany.

 

[Lalli]

I think the OP means the Russians quickly and decisively defeat the central powers and have Vienna and Berlin at their feet.

Neither the French or the British would be happy a "Cossackified" Europe.

I don't believe that Russians can reach Berlin and Vienna and hardly they were intrested go so far.

 

[Eivind]

How much is it possible to wank Russian war effort during WW1? If Russia avoided collapse and revolution, how would this influence post-war developments? If Turkey tried revanchism, like they did in OTL, how would Russia react? The allied powers did not stop Turkey, but would Russia do so? After all, they would have an excuse to go to war and maybe grab more territory.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

And from Ottomans Russians might get Armenian territories. But I don't think that anyone would accept Russian control over Constantinople.

Turkey was not in the war until 1 November, after Goeben bombarded Sevastopol under the Turkish flag and Russia declared war. If Germany is crushed in Prussia, and Austria in Galicia, Turkey will not allow itself to be dragged into a war that Germany and Austria are losing.

So Russia won't take anything from Turkey.

Possibility: the OTL naval attacks on Russia were ordered by Enver Pasha without reference to the Navy Minister or the Cabinet. Maybe the Germans, desperate after the defeat in Prussia, get desperate and demand the attacks in September, and Enver goes along. So Turkey gets sucked into the war with even less legality, and then is left high and dry when Germany makes peace in October. Russia then demands some cessions from Turkey.