What if the Russians had successfully launched the Polyus orbital weapons system?

Thande

Donor
Polyus was a Russian spacecraft launched in 1987, designed to be a counter to American anti-satellite weapons. Gorbachev forbade the Soviet military from testing its weapons in space, fearing that this would provoke the West, but this was moot in any case because the launch suffered a problem and Polyus crashed into the ocean before reaching orbit.

So what if it had been launched successfully?

I'm not sure if the bit on the Infallible Wikipedia about it being armed with nuclear mines is true (there's a Russian page, but I can't make out enough of it) but what would be the impact of the Soviets having such a weapons system in space?

And if everything else happens as OTL, could it perhaps be converted to civilian use for joint US-Russian projects like the Shuttle-Mir programme and the ISS?
 
Polyus was a Russian spacecraft launched in 1987, designed to be a counter to American anti-satellite weapons. Gorbachev forbade the Soviet military from testing its weapons in space, fearing that this would provoke the West, but this was moot in any case because the launch suffered a problem and Polyus crashed into the ocean before reaching orbit.

So what if it had been launched successfully?

I'm not sure if the bit on the Infallible Wikipedia about it being armed with nuclear mines is true (there's a Russian page, but I can't make out enough of it) but what would be the impact of the Soviets having such a weapons system in space?

And if everything else happens as OTL, could it perhaps be converted to civilian use for joint US-Russian projects like the Shuttle-Mir programme and the ISS?

Chances are if this is launched very few space-related things in OTL would have happened like they did. For one, the US, NATO, and the West would have felt really threatened by such a system. IMHO, Gorbachev was right for forbidding the launch, as it might well have caused another space race--this time to weaponize it.
 

Thande

Donor
Chances are if this is launched very few space-related things in OTL would have happened like they did. For one, the US, NATO, and the West would have felt really threatened by such a system. IMHO, Gorbachev was right for forbidding the launch, as it might well have caused another space race--this time to weaponize it.

Reread what I wrote - Gorbachev didn't ban the launch, he banned them testing it once it was launched. If there hadn't been the launch failure, it would have been launched but then presumably lay dormant until the fall of the Soviet Union, when it would have been declassified (?)
 
Reread what I wrote - Gorbachev didn't ban the launch, he banned them testing it once it was launched. If there hadn't been the launch failure, it would have been launched but then presumably lay dormant until the fall of the Soviet Union, when it would have been declassified (?)

Ah, sorry. Misinterpreted what you were trying to write about.
 
If you start a new space-based arms race, then perhaps space funding during the 90's would be higher?

The Clinton-era cuts in defense (or the not so large expansion might be a better phrase, anyway) would happen, but since the military space programs were being funded at such a higher rate, then the subsequent cuts would still leave them with more money than OTL.

The need to boost so much more payload into orbit leads to serious efforts to bring the cost of launching payload into down? The shuttle program really IS an interim and the military backs efforts to speed development in NASA? Perhaps the Army and Air Force space weapons programs compete to create a new reusable launch vehicle?

This could have some cool effects, because it would pump up support for things that would have good effects on the civilian side of things. Plus it would create a bigger constiutency in the Pentagon that cares about space-related programs, and maybe more screaming about the Chinese Space Program is heard from military circles? The need for a near-peer competitor leads to continued funding of the American space programs (though not necessarily NASA).
 

Glen

Moderator
Reread what I wrote - Gorbachev didn't ban the launch, he banned them testing it once it was launched. If there hadn't been the launch failure, it would have been launched but then presumably lay dormant until the fall of the Soviet Union, when it would have been declassified (?)

No, when it would have been taken over by a shadowy criminal organization comprised of former Eastern Bloc spies with a snappy acronym and a demand for one million dollars from the West or else they would use their space weapon....;)
 

Glen

Moderator
Seriously, though. It wouldn't change much with the Soviet Union only a few years away from utter collapse.

The Space Defense Initiative would get a shot in the arm for a couple years, but be basically abandoned by the Clinton administration....
 

Archibald

Banned
Remember this Eastwood movie called "Space cowboys" ?

Is it just me or does the thing they discover in orbit really looks like Polyus ? :confused:
 
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