If they escape to Hainan they will be pursued and Hainan will be taken, just like it was OTL. If they try to escape to Taiwan, unless it is part of some brokered peace deal where everyone agrees that the Chinese Communists get to have Taiwan they won't make it because the US 7th Fleet will use them for target practice.
What if the ROC and PRC role's were reversed?
- Thread starter Starforce
- Start date
I'm not sure what's in it for the Soviets. No more than several thousand CCP cadres will survive the trek across the Gobi Desert. The Soviets can then alternate between instigating clashes on the border and purging the CCP leadership as necessary.
I dont think Nationalist China would be Pro West. They'd still remember the Half Century of Humiliation and China being carved up into "zones of Influence."
They'd most likely be neutral in the Korean war, moderately in the Democratic bloc due to their own Civil War but would most likely stay out of the Korean War.
They'd most likely be neutral in the Korean war, moderately in the Democratic bloc due to their own Civil War but would most likely stay out of the Korean War.
They also got a significant amount of help from the Soviets in their war against Japan and in the civil war initially (something Mao never forgot nor forgave) so their is an established relationship there.
I think along the lines of your point, a Republic of China ruled by the victorious Nationalists would try even harder than the PRC did to establish itself as the leader of an alternative block during the CW. That would be an interesting TL, somebody should write it.
I'm not so sure of that antipathy. First, the West (mainly the US) consistently took their side against Japan, and the West (again, mainly the US) actually fought Japan. Spheres of influence and the treaty ports and all that are bad, but Japan's war with China was much much worse. Meanwhile, the US was generally not favorable to the spheres of influence (not for any altruistic reasons).
That is a good point, but I do still think Anti-American Elements could still be present.
Whether they're pro-American or Apathetic during the Korean War really depends on the people who are present when the Nationalists win and how present the American Government was in getting them there.
And how much material support the Americans have given them during this time frame - which of course, takes for granted that there will be a Korean War.
If there is anything that could get the Chinese Nationalists upset with the US, it would be how the US handles Japan. If its considered too lenient, there could be some bad blood. On the other side of this, the US might not feel the need to be as lenient with Japan, with (almost) all of China on their side. What is the general opinion in Korea and China of the actual world about how the US did our best to rehabilitate Japan?
A combination of things - the US is being too lenient on Japan and while it will be acknowledged that the US supported China a great deal during the war, I think a sizable faction will feel that the US could have and should have done more and that China was last in line after Great Britain, the Soviet Union, Australia, Canada, Free France, Free Norway, Free Poland, etc. Whether that is the truth or not, some will have that perception and it will sound good as a sound byte.
The Chinese really have very little reason to dislike the US, which didn't take Chinese colonies, re-invested its Boxer rebellion indemnity in China, and helped the ROC in many ways up to and during World War II. Many of the KMT elite received Western education, and Chiang's wife studied in the US.
The Century of Humiliation narrative, while somewhat present in KMT propaganda, is far more of a CCP thing.
Of course, it all depends on whether a Korean War even exists at all. If the Allies were smart enough, they'd conveniently camouflage the joint administration (IOTL, according to FDR's proposal, joint Soviet-American - here, I'm thinking more widespread if Britain and France - either the Free French or otherwise - were included) of a UN Trust Territory of Korea were integrated into this little-known Surrender-period government. In other words, using a similar playbook for Korea like what was already going on at the same time for Austria. The People's Republic of Korea would be used for establishing a post-Surrender Korean government and re-establishing Korean independence, though in terms of defense and foreign policy it would be in the same boat as West Germany (for a brief period under Adenauer) and Austria up to 1955 on one level within the constraints being a Trust Territory allowed. Korea could thus achieve full independence/decolonization earlier than other Trust Territories as long as it maintains neutrality, and it would around that time the Provisional Government-in-exile could merge with it.
The KMT could thus potentially exercise some influence on Korea, despite its neutrality, since the Provisional Government was based in China, and when Jiang's Government relocated to Chongqing during WWII, so too did the Korean Provisional Government. However, with no Korean War to save Jiang's bacon, he would have to be under more pressure to reform his regime, and that would be true regardless of a total or partial (= e.g. a divided China) ROC victory. Jiang would have to get it in his head that his victory was out of sheer luck and fortunate circumstances, and that his grip on power would not last if he kept the status quo going.
You'd need an earlier PoD before the Long March to get the commies to the coast rather than the northern interior.