What if the Prussians lost the 7 Years War?

In this scenario the British still win in the colonies, but the Prussians lose in Europe.

Austria is getting Silesia back and Russia is getting Prussia (historic region).

Possible mid-term effect - no Partitions of the PLC or at least no partitions in the OTL form. Long-term effect - Prussian military are not under the spell of an old glory all the way to 1806 and are doing something to modernize their army.
 
Austria is getting Silesia back and Russia is getting Prussia (historic region).

Possible mid-term effect - no Partitions of the PLC or at least no partitions in the OTL form. Long-term effect - Prussian military are not under the spell of an old glory all the way to 1806 and are doing something to modernize their army.

So Russia would get the whole of Prussia. I have to admit I don't know much about this period but would it be feasible for Russia to hold Prussia for a long amount of time. Considering that the heir to Catherine the Great was a great admirer of the Prussians.
 
Russia is getting Prussia (historic region).
IIRC that was actually going to be immediately traded for some of the PLC's eastern lands.

Long-term effect - Prussian military are not under the spell of an old glory all the way to 1806 and are doing something to modernize their army.
I'm not sure how relevant the "Prussian" (Brandenburger?) military is after having lost so much territory and revenue. Now it's, at most, a peer power to Saxony.

Considering that the heir to Catherine the Great was a great admirer of the Prussians.
As previously mentioned Prussia should have been handed over to the PLC in exchange for land elsewhere by this point, so I don't think that matters too much.

edit: Sweden also had some territorial designs on Prussia's northern coast, though I don't remember exactly what they wanted.
 
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So Russia would get the whole of Prussia. I have to admit I don't know much about this period but would it be feasible for Russia to hold Prussia for a long amount of time. Considering that the heir to Catherine the Great was a great admirer of the Prussians.

Prussia itself is pretty backwater, mainly a bunch of wheat and rye fields. The Holetzorns would still have Brandenburg
 
IIRC that was actually going to be immediately traded for some of the PLC's eastern lands.

I doubt it: (a) the locals had been ordered to swear loyalty to Empress Elizabeth and (b) why would Elizabeth want a piece of the PLC territory if the whole Commonwealth was de facto Russian vassal? Not to mention that the "eastern lands" of the PLC (Belarussia) were pretty much worthless. Of course, I would not completely exclude possibility of a swap but it just seems unlikely.

I'm not sure how relevant the "Prussian" (Brandenburger?) military is after having lost so much territory and revenue. Now it's, at most, a peer power to Saxony.

Prussia proper (East Prussia) is relatively small and Silesia became Prussian only after the War of the Austrian Succession. The Kingdom of Prussia was run by Frederick very efficiently and had been able to raise an army size of which was (by the contemporary standards) out of proportion to the kingdom's population. They would be able to recuperate, at least to a certain degree.
 
I doubt it: (a) the locals had been ordered to swear loyalty to Empress Elizabeth and (b) why would Elizabeth want a piece of the PLC territory if the whole Commonwealth was de facto Russian vassal? Not to mention that the "eastern lands" of the PLC (Belarussia) were pretty much worthless. Of course, I would not completely exclude possibility of a swap but it just seems unlikely.
Yeah Belorussia isn't worth much, nor is it in Russia's general direction of expansion in the 1700s (south-western). Right bank Ukraine on the other hand... *

Prussia proper (East Prussia) is relatively small and Silesia became Prussian only after the War of the Austrian Succession. The Kingdom of Prussia was run by Frederick very efficiently and had been able to raise an army size of which was (by the contemporary standards) out of proportion to the kingdom's population. They would be able to recuperate, at least to a certain degree.
The out of proportion bit is the key bit. After the three Silesian wars Brandenburg alone is going to be pretty strapped for manpower. It'll be at least a generation before the "Prussian" army returns to the field in appreciable force.

*Courland+Polish Livonia could also be an option, being about the same value as Prussia, yet also being contiguous with Russia
 
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If POD is Empress Elizabeth of Russia lives longer, then Poniatowski is not going to get Polish throne (which is very, very good thing). Compromise candidate acceptable to both Austrians and Elizabeth would be next Wettin, who will sit in Dresden and would not try to reform anything in PLC. Elizabeth would avoid some mistakes Catherine did early in her reign-not supporting Familia and not pushing for emancipation of non-Catholic nobles of PLC, she'll avoid Bar Confederation, thus-Russo-Ottoman war and first partition of PLC also would be avoided.
 
So Russia would get the whole of Prussia. I have to admit I don't know much about this period but would it be feasible for Russia to hold Prussia for a long amount of time. Considering that the heir to Catherine the Great was a great admirer of the Prussians.

"Prussia" in this context means "Eastern Prussia" or the former "Ducal Prussia" (green on the map).
300px-Acprussiamap2.gif


It would also mean a probable earlier annexation of the Duchy of Courland and Semigalia (vassal of the PLC) to have a land access from Russia
250px-Duchy_of_Courland_%26_Semigallia_1740.svg.png


The issue of the admirers of Old Fritz would be relevant well before Paul I but the premise, "Prussia lost", means that by the end of a war Empress Elizabeth is still alive. Which, in turn, means that Prussia is officially ceding the territory to Russian Empire (did not happen in OTL so Peter III had a complete freedom of action). After this is done, even Peter III (even greater admirer of Fritz than his son) would not be able to return it to Prussia easily even if he wanted. For example, as a heir to the throne, Paul was against partitions of Poland and as an emperor he released Tadeusz Kosciuszko. But he did not do anything to restore the PLC (or even make a mini-state out of the Russian part of the spoils).
 
The out of proportion bit is the key bit. After the three Silesian wars Brandenburg alone is going to be pretty strapped for manpower. It'll be at least a generation before the "Prussian" army returns to the field in appreciable force.

Even in OTL Prussian state was quite exhausted after the 7YW and Prussian army even more so, especially its officers corps, so Fritz slightly curbed his enthusiasm in the years to follow. But you missed the point: in OTL all the way to 1806 Prussia army lived by the "glorious tradition" and did not see any need for reform. If anything, it was deteriorating by preserving the formal appearances and sticking to the obsolete traditions. Clausewitz in his book on the campaign of 1806 left a very description of its status and fighting abilities which look almost as a caricature.

If there is no past glory and miracle of recuperating after the terrible defeats, a more self-critical attitude could prevail, leading to the earlier reforms.

*Courland+Polish Livonia could also be an option, being about the same value as Prussia, yet also being contiguous with Russia

At the time in question the Duke of Courland and Semigalia, Ernst Johann von Biron, was spending a quality time in Yaroslavl (which was a nice gesture from Elizabeth because by the time of her accession he was banished for life to Pelym in Siberia). This should give an idea about Russian attitude toward the sovereignty of Courland.

"Polish Livonia" by that time shrunk down to the Wenden Voivodeship with a capital in Daugavpils and, again, to put things into a proper perspective, to participate in the 7YW Russian armies had to march across the PLC territory, which they did freely not caring too much about the issues of neutrality, sovereignty and other nonsense.

So, why bother to give something you won in exchange to something that you are already controlling? If communications with the new Prussian territories would prove problematic (probability of which was close to zero), the lands in between would be either annexed or simply occupied by the Russian troops.
 
But you missed the point: in OTL all the way to 1806 Prussia army lived by the "glorious tradition" and did not see any need for reform. If anything, it was deteriorating by preserving the formal appearances and sticking to the obsolete traditions. Clausewitz in his book on the campaign of 1806 left a very description of its status and fighting abilities which look almost as a caricature.

If there is no past glory and miracle of recuperating after the terrible defeats, a more self-critical attitude could prevail, leading to the earlier reforms.
I think you're missing the point. Prussia is finished as a relevant power. How it reforms its tiny army is irrelevant.

So, why bother to give something you won in exchange to something that you are already controlling? If communications with the new Prussian territories would prove problematic (probability of which was close to zero), the lands in between would be either annexed or simply occupied by the Russian troops.
Legitimacy and stability. The PLC is a Russian vassal at this point, unilateral annexation of any of its territory without compensation does nothing more than strengthen anti-Russian factions in Krakow.

And as I mentioned before, Right Bank Ukraine would probably be Russia's foremost goal in any trade, I just tossed out Courland as an unlikely yet somewhat valid alternative.
 
Prussia itself is pretty backwater, mainly a bunch of wheat and rye fields. The Holetzorns would still have Brandenburg

Actually, wheat and grain were not such unimportant things in the XVIII or even XIX century (Russia was getting a lot of money from grain exports and much later there was even "customs war", conducted by Bismark and Witte, over the Russian/Prussian conflict of interests in this specific area). Not that at this time Brandenburg was the most advanced part of Europe but it was much bigger than Eastern Prussia.
 
I think you're missing the point. Prussia is finished as a relevant power. How it reforms its tiny army is irrelevant.

Defeated Prussia is not necessarily the same as finished Prussia. Administration of a (shrunken) state is still quite effective and its ability to mobilize the resources still there. Who said that army of a defeated Prussia would by "tiny"?

By the Treaty of Tilsit it lost half of its territory with the severe restrictions on the size of its army. Yet, they managed to create a new system that allowed to build up a new powerful army within a couple years.

As for the victors, neither Russia nor Austria had, at that time, big armies.

Legitimacy and stability. The PLC is a Russian vassal at this point, unilateral annexation of any of its territory without compensation does nothing more than strengthen anti-Russian factions in Krakow.

The very facts that the Russian armies of the 7YW had been freely marching across PLC territory or that Russian government felt itself free to incarcerate or appoint (with the minimal formalities) the Dukes of Courland and even the Kings of the PLC should give you an idea how much the Russian governments (starting from Peter I) cared about the "legitimacy". As for the "stability" part, since the reign of Empress Anne approach to this issue was rather simplistic and boiled down to (a) having PLC territory occupied by the Russian troops and (b) having enough of the pet magnates to pass pretty much any decision Russia wanted or block any decision it did not like.

And as I mentioned before, Right Bank Ukraine would probably be Russia's foremost goal in any trade, I just tossed out Courland as an unlikely yet somewhat valid alternative.

Personally, I never read anything about the Russian plans regarding Prussia being so complicated. Elizabeth and those responsible for her foreign policy tended to stick to the straightforward schemes.

BTW, what was so good and interesting in the Right-bank Ukraine at that time? East Prussia was a well-organized area with the law-abiding population and effective agriculture. They'd pay taxes and serve in the Russian army and civic administration, just like the Germans from the Baltic provinces. On the Right-bank Elizabeth would get a bunch of a troublesome szlachta with no tradition of a mandatory military service (all Russian nobility of that time HAD to serve), no experience in the civic administration, rather relaxed attitude toward the law (mostly along the lines of "you can shove it...") and a very vague idea of what "paying taxes" may mean. Plus, she would get a lot of Catholics (by whatever reason Protestants had been much more preferable) and an extended border with the Crimean Khanate and Ottomans.
 
Yeah, Prussia'd be finished as a potential great power.

Russia wanted to swap core Prussia with Livonia and such.

By the Peace of Nystad Russia already had most of Livonia and by the later developments it controlled the Duchy of Courland and Semigalia. In other words, there was almost nothing left in the PLC for such a "swap" to be meaningful for the Russian Empire.

BTW, if such a swap was in the plans, then forcing population of the Easter Prussia to swear loyalty to Elizabeth does not make any sense.
 
Yeah, Prussia'd be finished as a potential great power.

Russia wanted to swap core Prussia with Livonia and such.



They wanted Hither Pomerania.

That causes a lot of changes as Prussia is finished as a great power.

What is the possibility of a Prussian recovery?
 
Defeated Prussia is not necessarily the same as finished Prussia. Administration of a (shrunken) state is still quite effective and its ability to mobilize the resources still there. Who said that army of a defeated Prussia would by "tiny"?
The fact that it's tiny and with massively reduced revenue streams would result in its army being tiny. During the First Silesian War Prussia was scraping the barrel to field an army of around 30,000. Now it has even less means to build an army and the period of massive armies is starting to dawn.

By the Treaty of Tilsit it lost half of its territory with the severe restrictions on the size of its army. Yet, they managed to create a new system that allowed to build up a new powerful army within a couple years.
Tilsit was nowhere near as Carthaginian as the peace the Austrian alliance had in mind.

As for the victors, neither Russia nor Austria had, at that time, big armies.
Um what?

Personally, I never read anything about the Russian plans regarding Prussia being so complicated. Elizabeth and those responsible for her foreign policy tended to stick to the straightforward schemes.
Sadly I don't have access to my personal library at this time, I'd love to track down a citation for you.

BTW, what was so good and interesting in the Right-bank Ukraine at that time? East Prussia was a well-organized area with the law-abiding population and effective agriculture. They'd pay taxes and serve in the Russian army and civic administration, just like the Germans from the Baltic provinces. On the Right-bank Elizabeth would get a bunch of a troublesome szlachta with no tradition of a mandatory military service (all Russian nobility of that time HAD to serve), no experience in the civic administration, rather relaxed attitude toward the law (mostly along the lines of "you can shove it...") and a very vague idea of what "paying taxes" may mean. Plus, she would get a lot of Catholics (by whatever reason Protestants had been much more preferable) and an extended border with the Crimean Khanate and Ottomans.
Right Bank Ukraine is some of Europe's most fertile land and a large population which would yield a high amount of revenue. The region was Greek Catholic and as previously seen in Left Bank Ukraine and as seen in Right Bank Ukraine when it was eventually annexed, that was very easily replaced by Russian Orthodox. The extended border with the Ottomans and their moribund vassal is a virtue rather than a vice, as Russia's general direction of expansion in that period was towards the southwest at the expense of the Ottomans.
 
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