In this scenario the British still win in the colonies, but the Prussians lose in Europe.
Austria is getting Silesia back and Russia is getting Prussia (historic region).
Possible mid-term effect - no Partitions of the PLC or at least no partitions in the OTL form. Long-term effect - Prussian military are not under the spell of an old glory all the way to 1806 and are doing something to modernize their army.
IIRC that was actually going to be immediately traded for some of the PLC's eastern lands.Russia is getting Prussia (historic region).
I'm not sure how relevant the "Prussian" (Brandenburger?) military is after having lost so much territory and revenue. Now it's, at most, a peer power to Saxony.Long-term effect - Prussian military are not under the spell of an old glory all the way to 1806 and are doing something to modernize their army.
As previously mentioned Prussia should have been handed over to the PLC in exchange for land elsewhere by this point, so I don't think that matters too much.Considering that the heir to Catherine the Great was a great admirer of the Prussians.
So Russia would get the whole of Prussia. I have to admit I don't know much about this period but would it be feasible for Russia to hold Prussia for a long amount of time. Considering that the heir to Catherine the Great was a great admirer of the Prussians.
IIRC that was actually going to be immediately traded for some of the PLC's eastern lands.
I'm not sure how relevant the "Prussian" (Brandenburger?) military is after having lost so much territory and revenue. Now it's, at most, a peer power to Saxony.
Yeah Belorussia isn't worth much, nor is it in Russia's general direction of expansion in the 1700s (south-western). Right bank Ukraine on the other hand... *I doubt it: (a) the locals had been ordered to swear loyalty to Empress Elizabeth and (b) why would Elizabeth want a piece of the PLC territory if the whole Commonwealth was de facto Russian vassal? Not to mention that the "eastern lands" of the PLC (Belarussia) were pretty much worthless. Of course, I would not completely exclude possibility of a swap but it just seems unlikely.
The out of proportion bit is the key bit. After the three Silesian wars Brandenburg alone is going to be pretty strapped for manpower. It'll be at least a generation before the "Prussian" army returns to the field in appreciable force.Prussia proper (East Prussia) is relatively small and Silesia became Prussian only after the War of the Austrian Succession. The Kingdom of Prussia was run by Frederick very efficiently and had been able to raise an army size of which was (by the contemporary standards) out of proportion to the kingdom's population. They would be able to recuperate, at least to a certain degree.
So Russia would get the whole of Prussia. I have to admit I don't know much about this period but would it be feasible for Russia to hold Prussia for a long amount of time. Considering that the heir to Catherine the Great was a great admirer of the Prussians.
The out of proportion bit is the key bit. After the three Silesian wars Brandenburg alone is going to be pretty strapped for manpower. It'll be at least a generation before the "Prussian" army returns to the field in appreciable force.
*Courland+Polish Livonia could also be an option, being about the same value as Prussia, yet also being contiguous with Russia
edit: Sweden also had some territorial designs on Prussia's northern coast, though I don't remember exactly what they wanted.
I think you're missing the point. Prussia is finished as a relevant power. How it reforms its tiny army is irrelevant.But you missed the point: in OTL all the way to 1806 Prussia army lived by the "glorious tradition" and did not see any need for reform. If anything, it was deteriorating by preserving the formal appearances and sticking to the obsolete traditions. Clausewitz in his book on the campaign of 1806 left a very description of its status and fighting abilities which look almost as a caricature.
If there is no past glory and miracle of recuperating after the terrible defeats, a more self-critical attitude could prevail, leading to the earlier reforms.
Legitimacy and stability. The PLC is a Russian vassal at this point, unilateral annexation of any of its territory without compensation does nothing more than strengthen anti-Russian factions in Krakow.So, why bother to give something you won in exchange to something that you are already controlling? If communications with the new Prussian territories would prove problematic (probability of which was close to zero), the lands in between would be either annexed or simply occupied by the Russian troops.
Prussia itself is pretty backwater, mainly a bunch of wheat and rye fields. The Holetzorns would still have Brandenburg
I think you're missing the point. Prussia is finished as a relevant power. How it reforms its tiny army is irrelevant.
Legitimacy and stability. The PLC is a Russian vassal at this point, unilateral annexation of any of its territory without compensation does nothing more than strengthen anti-Russian factions in Krakow.
And as I mentioned before, Right Bank Ukraine would probably be Russia's foremost goal in any trade, I just tossed out Courland as an unlikely yet somewhat valid alternative.
Ducal Prussia controlled mouth of Neman river, thus controlled Lithuanian sea trade. Money from tariffs would go to Russia now.
Yeah, Prussia'd be finished as a potential great power.
Russia wanted to swap core Prussia with Livonia and such.
Yeah, Prussia'd be finished as a potential great power.
Russia wanted to swap core Prussia with Livonia and such.
They wanted Hither Pomerania.
The fact that it's tiny and with massively reduced revenue streams would result in its army being tiny. During the First Silesian War Prussia was scraping the barrel to field an army of around 30,000. Now it has even less means to build an army and the period of massive armies is starting to dawn.Defeated Prussia is not necessarily the same as finished Prussia. Administration of a (shrunken) state is still quite effective and its ability to mobilize the resources still there. Who said that army of a defeated Prussia would by "tiny"?
Tilsit was nowhere near as Carthaginian as the peace the Austrian alliance had in mind.By the Treaty of Tilsit it lost half of its territory with the severe restrictions on the size of its army. Yet, they managed to create a new system that allowed to build up a new powerful army within a couple years.
Um what?As for the victors, neither Russia nor Austria had, at that time, big armies.
Sadly I don't have access to my personal library at this time, I'd love to track down a citation for you.Personally, I never read anything about the Russian plans regarding Prussia being so complicated. Elizabeth and those responsible for her foreign policy tended to stick to the straightforward schemes.
Right Bank Ukraine is some of Europe's most fertile land and a large population which would yield a high amount of revenue. The region was Greek Catholic and as previously seen in Left Bank Ukraine and as seen in Right Bank Ukraine when it was eventually annexed, that was very easily replaced by Russian Orthodox. The extended border with the Ottomans and their moribund vassal is a virtue rather than a vice, as Russia's general direction of expansion in that period was towards the southwest at the expense of the Ottomans.BTW, what was so good and interesting in the Right-bank Ukraine at that time? East Prussia was a well-organized area with the law-abiding population and effective agriculture. They'd pay taxes and serve in the Russian army and civic administration, just like the Germans from the Baltic provinces. On the Right-bank Elizabeth would get a bunch of a troublesome szlachta with no tradition of a mandatory military service (all Russian nobility of that time HAD to serve), no experience in the civic administration, rather relaxed attitude toward the law (mostly along the lines of "you can shove it...") and a very vague idea of what "paying taxes" may mean. Plus, she would get a lot of Catholics (by whatever reason Protestants had been much more preferable) and an extended border with the Crimean Khanate and Ottomans.