What if the Polish Saxon Crisis escalated?

The most contentious subject at the Congress was the so-called Polish-Saxon Crisis. The Russians and Prussians proposed a deal in which much of the Prussian and Austrian shares of the partitions of Poland would go to Russia, which would create an independent Polish Kingdom in personal union with Russia with Alexander as king. In exchange, the Prussians would receive as compensation all of Saxony, whose King was considered to have forfeited his throne because he had not abandoned Napoleon soon enough. The Austrians, French, and British did not approve of this plan, and, at the inspiration of Talleyrand, signed a secret treaty on January 3, 1815, agreeing to go to war, if necessary, to prevent the Russo-Prussian plan from coming to fruition.


Alexander I (1812).
Although none of the three powers was particularly ready for war, the Russians did not call the bluff, and an amicable settlement was set on October 24, 1815, by which Russia received most of the Napoleonic Duchy of Warsaw as a "Kingdom of Poland" (called Congress Poland), but did not receive the district of Poznań (Grand Duchy of Poznań), which was given to Prussia, nor Kraków and became a free city. Prussia received 40 percent of Saxony (later known as the province of Saxony), with the remainder returned to King Frederick Augustus I (kingdoms of Saxony).

So what if the Polish Saxon Crisis escalated? What if the Tsar had called the bluff of Britain, Austria, and France?

So obviously Britain, Austria, and France would be one side facing Prussia and Russia, but what about the other countries at this time. For example what side might the Netherlands or Naples choose? Would the Ottomans involve themselves?

How would the war play out and who do you expect to emerge victorious?

What would the resultant peace look like?
 
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TFSmith121

Banned
Be interesting if Napoleon offers his services

Be interesting if Napoleon offers his services; do Charles et al turn him down in the crisis? What if the Poles ask for him?

NII may be something more than a prisoner....

Depending upon events, the Americans, may be able to make some hay - same for the Ottomans, Swedes, Dutch, etc. Any power not involved will be sought out, certainly...

Best,
 
Be interesting if Napoleon offers his services; do Charles et al turn him down in the crisis? What if the Poles ask for him?

NII may be something more than a prisoner....

Depending upon events, the Americans, may be able to make some hay - same for the Ottomans, Swedes, Dutch, etc. Any power not involved will be sought out, certainly...

Best,

Yes Napoleon is an interesting piece in this puzzle. If he escapes Elba then he could the game entirely. He might try and stay out of the conflict or he might offer to join one side or the other. But the problem there is the British hated him and had bankrolled now 5 coalitions to do away with him. And on the Russian side if ALexander was in one of his moods he might believe that Napoleon is antichrist and Alexander Europe's savior. And if Napoleon tried going conquering again the Coalition would put aside its differences and then wreck Napoleon before resuming their war. Honestly the only chance Napoleon had was to walk into France, not raise an army, claim he would oblige by the provisions set out already about France, and maybe even abdicate to his son. And even then it was only chance that the coalition didn't turn on him. If hostilities between the Coalition were high enough and the war between the coalition significant enough, I could see one side winning and then moving against Napoleon.

The Americans chance at securing hay are low. Right now they are at peace with Britain and I doubt the American president would be able to convince Congress to restart that war.

But however you are right in assuming as I did that other powers might get involved. Which is why I'll repeat my question from the OP, which side do you think they would join?
 
Napoleon is the wild card. He played his cards wrong and in doing so, inadvertently averted the Polish-Saxon Crisis, but looking at the other major nations, the only nations I can probably see getting involved besides the big five (not counting the German states), is Naples and Sweden.

In the case of Naples, Austria wants to reassert its hegemony over the Italian states, especially now that Spain is no longer in a position to really do anything about it, plus Naples is ruled by the last legacy of the French Revolution in Joachim I. Destroying the independent Neapolitan Kingdom and restoring it to its rightful, "ordained by god" king would probably put Naples on the side of Russia & Prussia.

In the case of Sweden, Sweden still technically held claim to Finland, which Russia annexed as the Grand Duchy of Finland, some six years prior. If this hypothetical Polish-Saxon War still happens, I can see Sweden backing the Western Kingdoms in an attempt to get Finland, and with it, a chance to reassert itself as a regional power in the Baltic.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Well, he is the most effective French combat commander in a generation

Yes Napoleon is an interesting piece in this puzzle. If he escapes Elba then he could the game entirely. He might try and stay out of the conflict or he might offer to join one side or the other. But the problem there is the British hated him and had bankrolled now 5 coalitions to do away with him. And on the Russian side if ALexander was in one of his moods he might believe that Napoleon is antichrist and Alexander Europe's savior. And if Napoleon tried going conquering again the Coalition would put aside its differences and then wreck Napoleon before resuming their war. Honestly the only chance Napoleon had was to walk into France, not raise an army, claim he would oblige by the provisions set out already about France, and maybe even abdicate to his son. And even then it was only chance that the coalition didn't turn on him. If hostilities between the Coalition were high enough and the war between the coalition significant enough, I could see one side winning and then moving against Napoleon.

The Americans chance at securing hay are low. Right now they are at peace with Britain and I doubt the American president would be able to convince Congress to restart that war.

But however you are right in assuming as I did that other powers might get involved. Which is why I'll repeat my question from the OP, which side do you think they would join?

Well, he is the most effective French combat commander in a generation - even the Bourbons have to recognize that.

If he says to Charles et al "I offer to serve anywhere at anytime to defend France against the Russians - even, essentially, as a recruiting agent, not even a combat commander," he is a formidable tool - if the Russo-Prussians can roll over the Austrians, saying no is akin to NIII turning down the monarchists and Garibaldist/Republicans in 1870...

As far as the Americans and others, it really depends on the date of the break over the Prusso-Saxon issue; if it is in October, 1814, the Anglo-American war is still going and it is five months before Napoleon (historically) left Elba...

Lots of potential deltas, and I'd have to say Napoleon's role AND the current state of the Anglo-American conflict are going to have a significant impact on the decisions made by the U.S. And the European neutrals; in North America, for example, October 1814 is one month after the twin American victories at Plattsburgh/Lake Champlain and at Baltimore, two months before the Treaty of Ghent was signed (historically) and three months before the American victory at New Orleans, so a major European war with the alliances you have sketched above gives the British plenty of motivation to give the Americans everything they want and then some...

Best,
 
Napoleon is the wild card. He played his cards wrong and in doing so, inadvertently averted the Polish-Saxon Crisis, but looking at the other major nations, the only nations I can probably see getting involved besides the big five (not counting the German states), is Naples and Sweden.

In the case of Naples, Austria wants to reassert its hegemony over the Italian states, especially now that Spain is no longer in a position to really do anything about it, plus Naples is ruled by the last legacy of the French Revolution in Joachim I. Destroying the independent Neapolitan Kingdom and restoring it to its rightful, "ordained by god" king would probably put Naples on the side of Russia & Prussia.

In the case of Sweden, Sweden still technically held claim to Finland, which Russia annexed as the Grand Duchy of Finland, some six years prior. If this hypothetical Polish-Saxon War still happens, I can see Sweden backing the Western Kingdoms in an attempt to get Finland, and with it, a chance to reassert itself as a regional power in the Baltic.

Very much true in all regards. And another reason for Murat to fight for the Russians/Prussians is that Britain despises him and are supporting the Borbones in Sicily.

What sort of gains or losses do you think Naples and Sweden who receive depending on who wins the war?

Well, he is the most effective French combat commander in a generation - even the Bourbons have to recognize that.

If he says to Charles et al "I offer to serve anywhere at anytime to defend France against the Russians - even, essentially, as a recruiting agent, not even a combat commander," he is a formidable tool - if the Russo-Prussians can roll over the Austrians, saying no is akin to NIII turning down the monarchists and Garibaldist/Republicans in 1870...

As far as the Americans and others, it really depends on the date of the break over the Prusso-Saxon issue; if it is in October, 1814, the Anglo-American war is still going and it is five months before Napoleon (historically) left Elba...

Lots of potential deltas, and I'd have to say Napoleon's role AND the current state of the Anglo-American conflict are going to have a significant impact on the decisions made by the U.S. And the European neutrals; in North America, for example, October 1814 is one month after the twin American victories at Plattsburgh/Lake Champlain and at Baltimore, two months before the Treaty of Ghent was signed (historically) and three months before the American victory at New Orleans, so a major European war with the alliances you have sketched above gives the British plenty of motivation to give the Americans everything they want and then some...

Best,

The Bourbons were reluctant to use his marshals OTL, they are never using Napoleon. Not to mention it isn't up Charles it's up to Britain as financier of the Austrians and French and prison guard of Napoleon.

The Polish Saxon Crisis only turned into a crisis in the fall of 1815 when Tsar Alexander found out about the British-Austrian-French secret alliance to oppose the Prussians getting Saxony and the Russians getting too much of Poland. And that secret alliance was formed in 3 January 1815, after Ghent. America will not be involved in this conflict.
 
In a Polish-Saxon War, Russia and Prussia are the ones most likely to win, at the expense of their former allies, Sweden, and even potential ally Naples. Naples can't possibly hope to take on all of Italy as well as the Austrians and French, Ferdinand would be restored, and Murat would be drawn and quartered. As for Sweden, not really much else I can consider at this point.

Bernadotte has already been recognized by all, even the very reactionary Austrians and Russians, as the legitimate King of Sweden, and I doubt Russia would be looking to bring Sweden into the Empire as well...though if Sweden wins, as I said, they'll most likely gain Finland.
 
In a Polish-Saxon War, Russia and Prussia are the ones most likely to win, at the expense of their former allies, Sweden, and even potential ally Naples. Naples can't possibly hope to take on all of Italy as well as the Austrians and French, Ferdinand would be restored, and Murat would be drawn and quartered. As for Sweden, not really much else I can consider at this point.

Bernadotte has already been recognized by all, even the very reactionary Austrians and Russians, as the legitimate King of Sweden, and I doubt Russia would be looking to bring Sweden into the Empire as well...though if Sweden wins, as I said, they'll most likely gain Finland.

Would the French and Austrians really be able to focus on Murat they were dealing with the Prussians and Russians? Or would they be able to divert enough soldiers to deal with him?
 

TFSmith121

Banned
True, but perhaps the Poles?

Very much true in all regards. And another reason for Murat to fight for the Russians/Prussians is that Britain despises him and are supporting the Borbones in Sicily.

What sort of gains or losses do you think Naples and Sweden who receive depending on who wins the war?



The Bourbons were reluctant to use his marshals OTL, they are never using Napoleon. Not to mention it isn't up Charles it's up to Britain as financier of the Austrians and French and prison guard of Napoleon.

The Polish Saxon Crisis only turned into a crisis in the fall of 1815 when Tsar Alexander found out about the British-Austrian-French secret alliance to oppose the Prussians getting Saxony and the Russians getting too much of Poland. And that secret alliance was formed in 3 January 1815, after Ghent. America will not be involved in this conflict.

You had October, 1814 in the second paragraph in your OP. If he crisis ( if there is one) is the fall of 1815, then yes, the U.S. and UK have signed Ghent and the war has been over for nine months.

Best,
 
You had October, 1814 in the second paragraph in your OP. If he crisis ( if there is one) is the fall of 1815, then yes, the U.S. and UK have signed Ghent and the war has been over for nine months.

Best,

Sorry the source I took it from had a typo.
 
Would the French and Austrians really be able to focus on Murat they were dealing with the Prussians and Russians? Or would they be able to divert enough soldiers to deal with him?

That I don't know. Considering Russia is a more direct threat to Austria than France was IOTL, I would assume the French would be the ones gunning for Naples, but that's just speculating something that really involves me grasping straws.
 
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