What if the Polish-Lithuanian crisis of 1938 escalated to war?

raharris1973

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Background reading is here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1938_Polish_ultimatum_to_Lithuania

What if this had turned into a war?

I think the primary way it could escalate to war would be Lithuania rejecting the ultimatum (although I would entertain other ways of doing it).

The problem in getting Lithuania to do that would be getting them to think they would not be defeated by Poland.

The main way I could think of the Lithuanians concluding they should stand firm against the Polish ultimatum would be if Germany were whispering that it would support Lithuania (though again I could entertain other ways of it happening).

From there, we have any number of possibilities, from a Polish conquest or temporary incursion into Lithuania in a fight that is strictly bilateral, or Hitler can actually back the Lithuanians if he promised them support, thus tangling with Poland in the spring of 1938. Alternatively, Hitler could double-cross the Lithuanians and fully or partly partition their territory with the Poles. This could have interesting (and probably negative) results for Poland's international reputation.
 
If germany and poland do get into a protracted war it could go either way.

No guaranty the allies will do much for poland under such conditions,but then again germany isnt exactly in top shape yet.

If germany does beat poland it kind of ruins their shot at the sudetanland because the czecks will be that much better entrenched and this time apeasement isnt going to be top policy.

So there is a chance it might be a poland-screw but we avoid OTL WW2 with a crazy contained germany stuck between a rock(czeckoslovakia),a hammer(soviet union) and an anvil(france).
 
Germany needs Poland as a corridor to attack the USSR later on, but Hitler can't risk an outright conquest campaign in 1938.
What he may do, but doesn't look like something Hitler would do, is to try to manipulate events so there is a war in which Poland looks like the aggressor and attack Poland with the aim of instituting a puppet government which would later assist the Nazis in the conquest genocide of the Soviet people.

A successful German military campaign (I don't know the state of the German armed forces in '38) might make Munich more likely because Chamberlain could think the UK needs more time if it is to match the German military.
OTOH, if the Polish manage to hold their ground, the British government would be far more confident and Munich may not happen, which would either deprive Germany of the Czech industry or prompt an early war.
 

raharris1973

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Let's not ignore the Lithuanian factor here. Yeah, they are the smallest, but might be helpful as German allies against Poland. Or, they could be a hapless victim of both Germany and Poland.
 
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