What if the Polish Campaign lasted longer that OTL?

Germany invaded Poland on September 1. 1939.

Losses were very heavy on all sides and the Soviets let the Germans bleed the poles quite a bit before entering themselves. I recently read that the Polish defensive campaign put great emphasis on protecting the frontiers instead of defense-in-depth in more defensible terrain. This was a political decision to prevent Germany getting a deal whereby they seize part of Poland's territory.

What if Poland was able to drag out the battle? What if it lasted another month or two? Would that have dramatically changed the OTL?
 
largest effect on the German side would be a couple hundred more aircraft lost to malfuctions, pilot error, and then combat. Even if the Poles dont destroy another aircraft after 20 September expected operating losses could run between five & ten percent of sorties each day. A higher loss rate that if the air wings had stood down after combat ceased and redeployed to the west for recovery and training.

Artillery ammunition would be another significant item run down. The German reserves of ammunition were not robust & a few more weeks of expendenture would have been noticable.

In the west the only Allied actions were the test raids of the RAF on the German naval bases and the Saar offensive. Little changes with the RAF raids. The French attack in the Saar was a outpost clearing operation. Designed to first push the German observation back & then probe/clear the outpost zone to the main defense zone of the Siegfried Line. In latter Sept/early Oct after the Series A formations were fully mobilized the second phase may have been kicked off. That is a series of large scale attacks to 'bite and hold selected portions of the entrenched or fortified zone. If the defense was found weak enough in October the methodical combined arms attacks would have been continued to destroy larger sectors of the defense zone.

Difficult to say how far that could have gone or the effect on the German leaders.
 
I doubt the response of the French in particular would have been any different. With the German Army more tied up in Poland, and higher losses in men and equipment and supplies, a French (and British) attack in the west would have been even more of a success than it could have been OTL. The reality is the French were NEVER going to do that, Their plan was basically to let the Germans bleed themselves on the Maginot Line until the Germans had had enough and quit. Maybe they'd attack once the Germans were considered to have bled out enough, but not until then. The BEF forces in France in the fall of 1939 did not amount to a lot and Britain could not have staged any sort of attack if the French were not all in.

Maybe the British and French don't see the Germans as ten feet tall, and maybe they get some lessons learned if the Poles figure out ways to beat up on the Germans better. The Poles are screwed, because eventually the Germans will break through and then Stalin jumps in - you know he won't act until Poland is obviously going under.
 
Even delaying the Germans a month vastly increases France's chances of holding out. The Polish invasion was a harder fight than people usually remember and the French invasion was a much more close-run thing.

fasquardon
 
I don't see it having much effect on the conduct of the war. France will not attack in the west, they are still too traumatised by the huge losses they suffered in the Great War to risk repeating them. The B.E.F is too small to attack without French support and would have to pass through the French lines to do so. France would not allow it.
 
I suppose Poland's chances would be greatly improved if the Soviet Union decides not to jump in. Maybe a different Soviet leader decides to stick to benevolent neutrality? Also, and correct me if I'm wrong, I believe the Polish plan included trying to invade the Prussian exclave - maybe the Poles can stick to defense there and save up more of their strength for their western front.

How long would Poland have to survive to motivate the French to actively intervene? Ironically, a stalemate would not bring them in, I expect there'd be the feeling that the Poles can manage by themselves quite fine. But a few extra months? A year?
 
The French would attack if the Poles held out - all their plans called for it, and forcing the Germans to fight a two-front war was exactly what they wanted to do.

The French plan was to continue the attack in Saar and add A formations as they became available - it would be a slow, methodical attacl focusing on using their superior artillery and artillery system to wear the Germans down. They did not want to suffer huge casualties in broad front mass assaults.

By early October (12th), the British had 2 Corps of each 2 Divisions in place, with a 5th Division coming. This included 24 000 vehicles and 50 000 tons of supplies.

If the Poles hold out better than OTL, the French will attack. If the Poles are forced back to their planned Lwow bridgehead, where they could be supplied through Romania by the French, the French might wait until 1941, when they would have total superiority in all arms on their own, not even counting the British and the Poles.
 
I started a threat sort of related to this a week or two ago, about a stronger Polish air force enabling them to hold out longer and inflict worse losses on the Wehrmacht and Luftwaffe. If the Luftwaffe were damaged too severely in Poland, the BoB would have to be at least delayed, if not abandoned totally, by the Nazis. On the flip side, if they delayed going to war to allow the Luftwaffe to recuperate, perhaps they would open the fight with the Bf 109 E-7 variants, equipped with drop tanks, a very useful asset opening new doors for strategies not so limited in range.
 
I don't think the campaign could have lasted much longer than in OTL, because I can't think of anything that could have stopped Stalin from attacking much later than he did in OTL, and once he did so the campaign could not have lasted more than maybe 2 weeks or so. But with the simple PoD of having Poland ignore the Allied demands to delay its mobilization in the last days of August 1939 the campaign could have been made much bloodier for the Germans. A fully mobilized Polish army would have had about 1/3 more available manpower at the start of the war, and would not have had the logistical problems caused by sending the mobilizing armies to the front while fighting.
 
The French would attack if the Poles held out - all their plans called for it, and forcing the Germans to fight a two-front war was exactly what they wanted to do.

The French plan was to continue the attack in Saar and add A formations as they became available - it would be a slow, methodical attacl focusing on using their superior artillery and artillery system to wear the Germans down. They did not want to suffer huge casualties in broad front mass assaults.

....

The secondary English language sources mentioning the French offensive plans I have lack details & refrence to French sources. Do you have anything detailed on this subject, or refering to detailed sources?

Thanks & Merci
 
I recall reading here (i have printed it somewhere) that there was a ship or ships heading for Poland in mid-September carrying some (about a squadron worth of each) Hurricanes, Battles, maybe a Spitfire, some LT MK 6 tanks etc. Also if i'm not mistaken french MS-406s and R-35 were on the way, so if Poland held longer these might reach Poland, it was not a lot but they might cause the germans a few more losses. Also if i'm not mistaken the R-35 tanks that evacuated to Romania never fought against the germans, so if Poland held longer this could change.

Also, i do not read polish but in a polish magazine there seemed to be something about a plan for 5 squadrons of Amiot-143 being deployed to Poland to bomb Germany, if this is accurate and when it was supposed to be carried out i don't know.

There are of course a variety of ways to make Poland resist longer, either technical (better prepared and equipped military) or more limited PODs involving things they could have done different in 1939, it's a matter of choice.

PS: Oh and, if Poland holds longer and more help reaches it transiting through Romania, probably gets the germans really pissed at Romania and there's the possibility they might make some kind of move against it in spring 1940, either forcing it to acceede to german demands or outright invading it.
 
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PS: Oh and, if Poland holds longer and more help reaches it transiting through Romania, probably gets the germans really pissed at Romania and there's the possibility they might make some kind of move against it in spring 1940, either forcing it to acceede to german demands or outright invading it.

But how can Germany bring pressure against Romania? If they are committed in Poland, they'll have no spare forces and until they defeat France all the other Balkan nations won't jump into line out of fear.

And while Hungary and Bulgaria didn't have the best relations with Romania, they wouldn't be interested in doing all the fighting and dying to achieve German war aims.

fasquardon
 
If Germany really pisses of Romania, and actually attacks it or even encourages and supports Hungary to seize contested areas, what happens to the German supply of petroleum. Worst case scenario if Germany attacks Romania the Romanians trash the poil fields before the Germans can seize them. As was noted in another post, Germany's ability to restore trashed oil fields is very limited both with technical personnel and replacement equipment. Losing most or all of the Romanian oil supply in 1939/40 will bring on the German fuel crisis even sooner. It is not impossible to see the Panzers not having adequate fuel to run across France, and the Luftwaffe flying the number of sorties it did, and the KM sending out U-Boats or using fuel for support for Norway. Even if they do all this in 1940, what will be left to fight Britain and Barbarossa becomes even more of a logistic impossibility.
 
But how can Germany bring pressure against Romania? If they are committed in Poland, they'll have no spare forces and until they defeat France all the other Balkan nations won't jump into line out of fear.

And while Hungary and Bulgaria didn't have the best relations with Romania, they wouldn't be interested in doing all the fighting and dying to achieve German war aims.

fasquardon

Not at the same time with being engaged in Poland, all things being equal i was reasoning that even if it resists longer if the UK and France do practically nothing like OTL Poland can't possibly still fight for more that 6-8 weeks more, the disparity of forces and especially technological is just too great. So Hitler in a moment of rage might turn against Romania in spring 1940, delaying the attack on France. Perhaps this is a remote possibility, especially with the norwegian campaign, but Germany and USSR ganging up on poor Romania could happen, however this would open all kinds of possibilities with the attack on France being postponed for even a few weeks. Maybe Pike is carried out? Boy that would be messy.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
Yeah, actually the Allies would have better chance if they decided to fight for the Czech rather than for the Poles, because the former's army was very modern and powerful for such a small country
 
If Germany really pisses of Romania, and actually attacks it or even encourages and supports Hungary to seize contested areas, what happens to the German supply of petroleum. Worst case scenario if Germany attacks Romania the Romanians trash the poil fields before the Germans can seize them. As was noted in another post, Germany's ability to restore trashed oil fields is very limited both with technical personnel and replacement equipment. Losing most or all of the Romanian oil supply in 1939/40 will bring on the German fuel crisis even sooner. It is not impossible to see the Panzers not having adequate fuel to run across France, and the Luftwaffe flying the number of sorties it did, and the KM sending out U-Boats or using fuel for support for Norway. Even if they do all this in 1940, what will be left to fight Britain and Barbarossa becomes even more of a logistic impossibility.

As i recall in 1939/1940 UK and France were buying as much romanian oil as possible to reduce what was being sold to Germany. Perhaps, PERHAPS if Poland resists longer and actually UK and France get off their asses and do something visible and useful to help Poland (and thus themselves), and something more tangible to support Romania, then maybe the flow of oil from Romania to Germany might be almost totally cut, at least for early 1940. However there is still the soviet oil, don't know how much oil USSR was giving to Germany, but i imagine it was significant. It would be vastly more significant if the flow of oil from Romania is even more restricted. Actually, in this case, maybe Hitler will be compelled to jump on Romania first, and of course it is not guaranted that the romanians will mange to sabotage a significant part of the oil installations, and not avoid capture of large quantities of stored oil.
 
Part of the problem with transport of Soviet petroleum to Germany is...transport. The USSR has a limited number of tanker RR cars, and because of the gauge difference, going from the Russian system to the German system is a pain. With something like petroleum, transferring load from one car to another is much more difficult than one boxcar to another. As far as sabotaging oil installations, there is no realistic way the Germans could capture much of these intact IF the Romanians decide to sabotage them. Sure you might, just might, be able to drop airborne troops on an installation, but not all of them. Even if airborne troops land their ability to prevent significant damage IF the Romanians have prepared is limited. Individual wells can be blown easily, and a production/refining facility is quite large and has multiple key bottleneck points - you don't have to blow everything up, just some of the most critical elements.
 
See the Battle of the Bzura TL - it's unfinished, but it largely shows that the impact of Poland holding out longer would be smaller than many of you think.

For anything worthwhile to happen, two conditions must be true:
1) the Soviets don't attack - Poland is dead in the water as soon as the Red Army comes in, just like IOTL
2) the WAllies need to actually attack the Germans instead of twiddle their thumbs
 
Could the British have helped Poland by using their naval forces and make snap raids all along the German coastline? The Germans would have to pull back forces to defend against those raids, and the British would get basic experience with combining naval and troop operations.

If so, could the British use their troops to capture German shipping an sail them back? To me this would hurt German transportation (and their economy) while boosting British shipping capacity.
 
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