The US could have probably held out considerably longer on the Bataan peninsula if food, gas, and munition stocks had been moved inside defendable positions in a timely manner. What if MacArthur and company had done that? The Bataan Peninsula held out until April 9, 1942 and Corrigedor until May 6. Let's say the US forces have enough additional food and ammunition to hold out an extra three months.
Now granted, their food and ammunition isn't the only consideration. As the Japanese cleaned up the rest of the loose ends of their parameter in the Pacific, they would undoubtedly focus more power on the Bataan peninsula. In the April/May 1942 time-frame they had a lot of additional firepower and manpower to call on if they needed it. On the other hand, a limited front would make it difficult to use very much additional power, and the spread of 'victory disease' might delay the realization that Bataan was not going to crack in an acceptable time-frame without additional forces.
The key date to watch is early June of 1942. Assuming that holding the Philippines longer doesn't somehow butterfly away the US victory at Midway, the US would emerge from that battle with something approaching naval parity with the Japanese, and with US forces holding out precariously in the Philippines. That would probably lead to intense political pressure on the Roosevelt administration to try a rescue effort, especially with the 1942 midterm elections approaching.
So, what happens? My gut feeling is that any attempt to rescue the Philippines in the aftermath of Midway would result in the US Navy getting its butt severely kicked. Just no way to get there without going through too much strongly held Japanese territory. And I think the top commanders of the navy were smart enough to figure that out. At the same time, the longer those guys held out, the greater the political pressure to rescue them would get. At some point it might divert resources from Operation Torch toward building toward a rescue effort.
Where do you think this would go? How long could the Bataan Peninsula hold out given a best case scenario in terms of getting weapons and supplies there? How would the US react in terms of trying to rescue US forces there? What would the political consequences of any actions be?
Now granted, their food and ammunition isn't the only consideration. As the Japanese cleaned up the rest of the loose ends of their parameter in the Pacific, they would undoubtedly focus more power on the Bataan peninsula. In the April/May 1942 time-frame they had a lot of additional firepower and manpower to call on if they needed it. On the other hand, a limited front would make it difficult to use very much additional power, and the spread of 'victory disease' might delay the realization that Bataan was not going to crack in an acceptable time-frame without additional forces.
The key date to watch is early June of 1942. Assuming that holding the Philippines longer doesn't somehow butterfly away the US victory at Midway, the US would emerge from that battle with something approaching naval parity with the Japanese, and with US forces holding out precariously in the Philippines. That would probably lead to intense political pressure on the Roosevelt administration to try a rescue effort, especially with the 1942 midterm elections approaching.
So, what happens? My gut feeling is that any attempt to rescue the Philippines in the aftermath of Midway would result in the US Navy getting its butt severely kicked. Just no way to get there without going through too much strongly held Japanese territory. And I think the top commanders of the navy were smart enough to figure that out. At the same time, the longer those guys held out, the greater the political pressure to rescue them would get. At some point it might divert resources from Operation Torch toward building toward a rescue effort.
Where do you think this would go? How long could the Bataan Peninsula hold out given a best case scenario in terms of getting weapons and supplies there? How would the US react in terms of trying to rescue US forces there? What would the political consequences of any actions be?