What if the Progressive Conservatives had done better in the 1997 Canadian election? Charest got a post-debate bounce and they polled as high as 25% in that election, though in the end got only 19% of the vote and given the inefficient distribution of their support this translated to only 20 seats. Link.
In this scenario, the PCs get an extra 5% of the vote. 1% of that comes from the BQ, 1% from Reform and 3% from the Liberals.
Here are the seats that change hands;
The NDP wins Bonavista-Trinity Conception from the Liberals.
PCs win Humber-St Barbe-Baie Verte, Cardigan, Egmont, Malpeque, Fredericton, Bellechasse-Etchemins-Montmagney-L'Islet, Leeds-Grenville, Oxford, Victoria-Haliburton from the Liberals, Drummond from the BQ(I stretched it with this one but was generous so gave it to the PCs), Sackville-Eastern Shore (from NDP), and Portage-Lisgar from Reform. The Liberals gain Frontenac-Megantic and Bonaventure-Gaspe-Iles-de-la-Madeline-Pabok from the BQ.
This was the source I used, please correct me if I missed anything or made any errors;
http://esm.ubc.ca/CA97/results.html
It leads to these results;
1997 Canadian election
Jean Chretien-Liberal: 147-27 35.46%(-5.78%)
Preston Manning-Reform: 59+9 18.35%(-0.34%)
Gilles Duceppe-BQ: 41-9 9.67%(-3.85%)
Jean Charest-PC: 32+30 23.84%(+7.80%)
Alexa McDonough-NDP: 21+12 11.05%(+4.17%)
301 seats
151 for majority
A Macleans article from the time hints at how such a result for the PCs might be perceived; "The informal benchmarks are something like this: to survive, the Tories must win at least a dozen seats in the next election—enough to give them official party status and appropriate funding. To be taken seriously, they need at least 25 seats, spread across the country. To prosper, and be a viable contender in the election after that, they need 50 seats. If they win anything above that, they will need a doctor to test for hallucinogens." https://archive.macleans.ca/article/1996/7/8/a-tory-revival-plan
So how would this affect Canadian politics? Plus there is the elephant in the room that the Liberals lose their majority in 1997 and so this could have a range of impacts on the Liberal leadership and Canadian politics. Would the Progressive Conservatives be able to survive as a party in the long-term? What if?
In this scenario, the PCs get an extra 5% of the vote. 1% of that comes from the BQ, 1% from Reform and 3% from the Liberals.
Here are the seats that change hands;
The NDP wins Bonavista-Trinity Conception from the Liberals.
PCs win Humber-St Barbe-Baie Verte, Cardigan, Egmont, Malpeque, Fredericton, Bellechasse-Etchemins-Montmagney-L'Islet, Leeds-Grenville, Oxford, Victoria-Haliburton from the Liberals, Drummond from the BQ(I stretched it with this one but was generous so gave it to the PCs), Sackville-Eastern Shore (from NDP), and Portage-Lisgar from Reform. The Liberals gain Frontenac-Megantic and Bonaventure-Gaspe-Iles-de-la-Madeline-Pabok from the BQ.
This was the source I used, please correct me if I missed anything or made any errors;
http://esm.ubc.ca/CA97/results.html
It leads to these results;
1997 Canadian election
Jean Chretien-Liberal: 147-27 35.46%(-5.78%)
Preston Manning-Reform: 59+9 18.35%(-0.34%)
Gilles Duceppe-BQ: 41-9 9.67%(-3.85%)
Jean Charest-PC: 32+30 23.84%(+7.80%)
Alexa McDonough-NDP: 21+12 11.05%(+4.17%)
301 seats
151 for majority
A Macleans article from the time hints at how such a result for the PCs might be perceived; "The informal benchmarks are something like this: to survive, the Tories must win at least a dozen seats in the next election—enough to give them official party status and appropriate funding. To be taken seriously, they need at least 25 seats, spread across the country. To prosper, and be a viable contender in the election after that, they need 50 seats. If they win anything above that, they will need a doctor to test for hallucinogens." https://archive.macleans.ca/article/1996/7/8/a-tory-revival-plan
So how would this affect Canadian politics? Plus there is the elephant in the room that the Liberals lose their majority in 1997 and so this could have a range of impacts on the Liberal leadership and Canadian politics. Would the Progressive Conservatives be able to survive as a party in the long-term? What if?
