The 1993 Canadian election is a pretty interesting AH topic given how volatile the political environment in Canada was and how there was much potential for different results, in particular the PCs winning or not doing as badly. As the PoD, let's have it that Jean Charest wins the PC leadership instead of Kim Campbell, and he runs a better campaign. However, given so many factors were going against the PCs in that election it's hard to see them actually beating the Liberals, but a better loss is probably more plausible. I have been experimenting with different results, and these show how FPP really disadvantaged the PCs in that election (though the PCs would have a shot at a minority government if their popular vote is around the same as that of the Liberals), but their support was spread out nationwide while Reform had very strong support in the West (so they get more seats there) and the Bloc Quebecois had very strong support in Quebec (so the PCs lose out on seats there too). In this Charest as leader scenario, I had these changes to the OTL results; in Atlantic Canada PC+15% and Liberals -15%, in Quebec PC +20% with Liberals -11% and BQ -9% and elsewhere PC +9%, Liberals -6% and Reform -3%. This is what I got for the election result (I have listed the seats that flip ITTL, but don't want to clog up the thread so if you're interested feel free to ask).
1993 Canadian election
Jean Chretien-Liberal: 143+62 32.99%(+1.07%)
Preston Manning-Reform: 57+56 16.78%(+14.69%)
Lucien Bouchard-BQ: 47+37 11.23%(+11.23%)
Jean Charest-PC: 36-120 29.12%(-13.90%)
Audrey McLaughlin-NDP: 11-33 6.88%(-13.50%)
295 seats
148 for majority
This seems like a reasonably good shift to the PCs from IOTL, but they still do badly in terms of seats. Also, when I tried a similar nationwide shift with Kim Campbell as leader instead I didn't get better results for the PCs with their seat total. Perhaps with this result the party can survive and do better in the next election (a rough parallel could be the Liberal comeback in 2015 from their 2011 defeat IOTL). What would be the effects of this election result? How would the 1990s go differently with the Liberals getting a minority instead of their comfortable majority in 1993? Could the Progressive Conservative Party remain a viable force in the long-term? What are your thoughts?
1993 Canadian election
Jean Chretien-Liberal: 143+62 32.99%(+1.07%)
Preston Manning-Reform: 57+56 16.78%(+14.69%)
Lucien Bouchard-BQ: 47+37 11.23%(+11.23%)
Jean Charest-PC: 36-120 29.12%(-13.90%)
Audrey McLaughlin-NDP: 11-33 6.88%(-13.50%)
295 seats
148 for majority
This seems like a reasonably good shift to the PCs from IOTL, but they still do badly in terms of seats. Also, when I tried a similar nationwide shift with Kim Campbell as leader instead I didn't get better results for the PCs with their seat total. Perhaps with this result the party can survive and do better in the next election (a rough parallel could be the Liberal comeback in 2015 from their 2011 defeat IOTL). What would be the effects of this election result? How would the 1990s go differently with the Liberals getting a minority instead of their comfortable majority in 1993? Could the Progressive Conservative Party remain a viable force in the long-term? What are your thoughts?