They'd only be able to do that with Dutch help, and that means the Philippines becomes Northern Indonesia, with somewhat more Catholics.
Or rather, Visayas and Mindanao become Northern Indonesia with more Catholics, Luzon becomes Southern Taiwan. With more Catholics.
I think the Visayans at least will resist the Moro sultanates that keep on enslaving them.
Luzon gets divided between the Hindus and Tungning and their borders will be in Bulacan or NCR the Northern half goes to the Hindus and Pagans, the South goes to Tungning and Taiwan gets abandoned in the Process, I think the Visayans would prefer Tungning rather than the Moros, I think Tungning would get Visayas in this scenario to prevent the Moros conquering them now that the Spanish have been evicted, the Dutch will not stop the Moros from enslaving the Visayans.
The Hindus in the North and the Moros in the south become vassals of the Dutch like the Indonesian states.
The Hindus, Christian rebels in Northern Luzon and the people in Luzon who are allied with the Dutch are basically the same, they will be led by the Hindus, the CryptoMuslims revert to Islam.
The Scenario about Southern Luzon will be messy since the Bruneians also have a claim on Southern Luzon and Bruneians are a Chinese vassal, the Qing props the Bruneians against Tungning.
The enemies of the Spanish before the 18th century are the Hindus and Pagans in the North and the Moros in the South.
So we get at least three states unless the other states like Sugbu and Madyaas get revived.