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What if the Ottomans had turned down Napoleon III's demands to grant more power over the Holy Places to Catholic clergy in the 1850s?

In OTL, Napoleon III's demands were part of the descent into the Crimean War. They sparked Russian counter-demands, then Russian intervention, then Ottoman pushback, then ultimately a Turkish-British-French coalition against Russia.

All in all, the Crimean War did not work out badly for the Ottomans.

Even so, I could imagine a Sultan and Viziers seeing French demands, and their acceptance, as dangerous moves, provocative to the Eastern Orthodox populations of the Ottoman Empire, and to Russia.

I could imagine them trying to deflect or ignore French demands, simply to avoid rocking the boat with the Orthodox clergy and populace and Russia. Orthodox Christians far outnumbered Catholics in the OE, and Russia had shown itself as the more dangerous enemy, closer to home and capable of holding its gains. The Sultan and Viziers could estimate that in an absolute worst case, the French might invade a province or two, but that surely the other powers of Europe would help the Ottomans expel the French as in the days of Napoleon I, or expel the French proxies, as in the second Ottoman-Egyptian War.

If the Ottomans do this, what happens? Do they go longer period without experiencing a war with Russia? Do they keep their fleet lost at Sinope?

How do the French respond to the rebuff? They did send ships into the Black Sea if I remember correctly.

Paul Kennedy has explained how during the Crimean War, France's status as a "hybrid" land and sea power, usually a source of headaches throughout history, was actually an advantage in this period.

Would Napoleon III go so far as to invade Constantinople? Or Syria-Palestine? Or Tunis or Libya?

What would Palmerston's reaction be if the French did that? What would the Russian reaction be?

Obviously, Palmerston was very Russophobic before and during OTL's Crimean War (although not really so much in 1848-49), but just a little over a decade earlier, Britain had sided *with* Russia against the French-supported Muhammad Ali.

Or if the French refrained from any military aggression, would the French limit retaliation to refusing to educate Ottomans or sell arms or provide advisors. If the French took this course, and the Ottomans lost this favored source of "technical support" could the Ottomans count on British, Dutch, Prussians, Austrians and other Europeans to make deals for weapons and technical training?
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