What if the Ottoman Empire didn't Modernize?

In the early 19th Century, the Ottoman Empire attempted an effort to modernize their nation, which coincided to their decline.

It could be split into various parts: The first was the Nizam-i Cedid, during the reign of Selim III, who attempted to modernize the Ottoman Empire, especially the military. He was overthrown by the Janissaries, who opposed reforms, and replaced him with Mustafa IV. The second was during the reign of Mahmud II, who successfully abolished the Janissaries, and made a series of legal and military reforms to the Ottoman Empire. The third and most defining one, was the Tanzimat Era, which was started by Mahmud II and continued by Abdulmejid I. This period saw a great modernization of the Ottoman Empire, with consolidation and reformation of various social and political foundations.

The success of this modernization effort is debatably mixed. On one hand, the Ottoman Empire did modernize to some extent: They reformed aspects of their empire, such as government, financial, military, and social, to a Western-style. On the other hand, their reforms did not stem the tides of Nationalism, such as in Greece, Romania, the entirety of Balkans and later with the Arabs. It could even be argued that their centralization efforts kind of contributed to the rise of Nationalist movements in the Ottoman Empire, as them taking away local powers only inflamed resentment and added tensions.

A common question I've seen on this site, is 'What if the Tanzimat was successful' or 'What if the Ottomans successfully modernized?' Here's a question I rarely seen asked; What if the Ottoman Empire didn't modernize or reform? Or at the very least, put off modernizing till very late, like the 1880s?

The best POD I could think for this to happen, is if Mustafa IV stayed in power and successfully killed Mahmud (When he also executed Selim III) and the Janissaries weren't disbanded. From what I read, Mustafa IV, Selim III and Mahmud at the time, were some of the last remaining male members of Ottoman Dynasty. So, if he had killed Mahmud, the Ottoman Dynasty would've been in a dire situation, especially if the Janissaries were still around.

Now, it'd be pretty stupid if they hadn't, given the growing Western powers around them. IMO. the best comparison I could think of is with Qing China, where they modernized too late. However, here it probably be a lot worse, given their proximity, especially being near Russia and even Austria.

With that out of the way, what do you guys think? What if the Ottoman Empire hadn't reformed or modernized?
Hadn't the Ottomans modernized, how would this effect the 'Eastern Question'. Could this lead to the Ottomans collapsing by some other power such as the Egyptians? Or could they be carved by the Europeans way earlier than before? Or would the western powers such as Britain and France continue to prop up the 'Sick Man' to halt Russian expansion?
While, I'm not expert in the Ottoman Empire... I think that if an Ottoman collapse, would happen due to external factors and/or if the fall of Constantinople would seem imminent that Britain would be probable that'd have intervened, for at least grant that the Empire would survive/conserve Thrace and North Eastern Anatolia.
But, given the middle to late nineteenth century political-military situation in Eastern Europe/Balkans coupled with a probable increased Western Powers interventions/meddling.
In this scenario, would be to expect that the empire would suffer more and worst military defeats with bigger and earlier territorial losses both to their Balkans Christian neighbours or to the Russian Empire.
In this scenario, would be to expect that the empire would suffer more and worst military defeats with bigger and earlier territorial losses both to their Balkans Christian neighbours or to the Russian Empire. Which, besides to increase the possibilities of an earlier loss of most of Rumelia, it would have increased exponentially the wish to change/reform. Both, among the population and the educated elites, at such extent that if repressed/not addressed would lead to radicalization and to support to more extreme radical ways to revert the Empire dire situation.
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I think the only way to avoid the impulse to modernise is to keep them isolated enough that the modernising party doesn’t have any concrete examples of the need to modernise until it’s too late.