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Despite the fact that events such as the Rape of Nanking and the attack on USS Panay sharply turned the US opinion against Japan, it was only after Japan took IndoChina and refusal to withdraw, that the US, the UK and the Netherlands initated the oil embargo against Japan which made the Chinese campaign impossible and as such ended up in the Pearl Harbor attack.

What would had happened if the embargo had began way back in 1937 as a response to Nanking and the USS Panay incident, with demands for Japan to withdraw to pre-Marco Polo Bridge borders to end the embargo?

With a way earlier embargo, would Japan had been able to achieve all its OTL conquest in China? Would they withdraw?
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