What if the oil embargo against Japan started in 1937?

IMHO it is not a question of treaties, but if the british and french stand by while japan attacks the DEI, who's next? What demands will follow?
 
IMHO it is not a question of treaties, but if the british and french stand by while japan attacks the DEI, who's next? What demands will follow?

They sat by for Czechoslovakia, and for Poland, fat lot of good for the Polish nation when the UK and France declared war, and did very little for the first year of the War.

Would France and UK join the Dutch? convince me.
 

raharris1973

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If Japan just attacks the Dutch, their attacking/reinforcing forces not only have to pass by the Philippines (the reason the USA was involved OTL - the PI were a threat to the supply lines), but also pass by British possessions and French possessions to get to the oil producing areas of the DEi and send it home. This means Japan takes on the British Empire, the Dutch, and probably the French, and very possibly the USA. Even the craziest of the IJA fanatics can't make this happen, the IJN will point out that the combined navies of the British, French, and Dutch outnumber them by a huge margin, add in the USA and the ratio becomes insane. With Holland and France occupied by Germany and their SEA colonies much weakened and the British busy fighting Germany, Japan saw an opportunity with the balance of forces in their favor.

In the circumstances of 1941, with the US building up the PI, aligning globally with Britain, boosting China with aid and volunteers, and the US Pacific Fleet based forward at Pearl, the Philippines were a semi realistic threat to Japanese supply lines. Why is that necessarily the case in 1937? US fleet is smaller, based in San Diego, there is far less demonstrated Anglo-Dutch-American collaboration at this point. The US in the ATL is demonstrating the will to take economic measures, but that is all. Its fleet is not even up to the strength of the expired treaty. Why couldn’t Japan tell itself it could deal with one power at a time instead of all at once, in 1937?
 
I am not stating that for sure if Japan attacked the DEI that the UK, France, USA would jump in. What I am saying is that the UK would see Japan seizing the DEI as a threat to Malaya and Borneo as well as the Australians being quite upset by this. I doubt the French would be pleased by this, and the US was already upset with Japan over China, this would not help. IMHO if the British get involved I think the French will, and even if the US does not get involved the sort of "leaning neutral" that occurred 1939-41 - reporting in clear transmissions sightings of German ships/U-boats etc - would be happening. Yes the Japanese might get away with seizing the DEI without the other powers getting involved but that is making a huge bet.

If Japan goes for the DEI only in 1937 and the British and French jump in, the IJN is in trouble. If the combined European fleets (even absent the USA) beat down the IJN in a Mahanian way, there is no defense perimeter they will have to batter through to get to the home islands unlike OTL. Now Japan faces an increasing blockade and at a minimum economic sanctions from the USA and others. While the Europeans and the USA have not yet rearmed, the Japanese are still doing so and they were barely "ready" by 1941, the carriers and aircraft that gave them a leg up in 1941 are not there yet. In 1937 the severe economic sanctions have not yet started, Japan is not facing a countdown clock to complete collapse of the economy and immobility of the jilitary when their oil reserves run dry. The purpose of the attack in 1941 was to enable continuation of the war in China, not per se war with the Europeans and the USA for its own sake.

The attack on the British and Dutch had the advantages of FIC being occupied and Britain and the Netherlands severely weakened by war/occupation with/by Germany. Even so the attack was a desperation move, and the Japanese knew it - get the oil or stop the war in China were the only options, and the army was not accepting number two. The situation in 1937 is quite different, and while the alliance with Germany was more on paper than anything else, don't forget that in 1937 the USSR would have nothing to distract it from looking at the far east. If Japan is busy with SEA/DEI Manchuria, Southern Sakhalin, and even Korea are going to be much weakened. Nomohan has not happened yet but "Japan" if not the Kwantung Army was not looking for a confrontation with the USSR.
 
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