What if the North Korean coup of 1996 succeeded?

In 1996, the No. 6 Corps of the Korean People's Army, based in the city of Chongjin, situated in North Korea's North Hamkyung Province, plotted a coup de'tat against the Kim regime.

The group, which included political committees, commanders of battalions, while the chief secretary of North Hamkyung Province, administrative cadres, vice directors of the provincial National Security Agency and Social Safety Agency and other cadres, was apparently planning to start an uprising in North Hamkyung Province first and then head for Pyongyang.

However, the Defense Security Command of the Korean People's Army discovered the plot and the ringleaders were arrested. 40 were executed and a further 300 severely punished.

But what if this coup de'tat actually succeeded in overthrowing the North Korean government?

Source of the story: http://www.dailynk.com/english/read.php?num=7321&cataId=nk02100
 
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I fear a breakdown. The people see Kim Jong-il as a literal good. When his father died the nation seriously lost it.


If Kim Jong-il is fully removed, even killed, there is going to be a severe spiritual crisis. Discovering everything you know was a lie; could we see something akin to the final days of the Third Reich? Cults don't fall quietly and you'd better believe South Korea and the US would attempt to capitalize in some way.

China likely drives in (can't have America at the Yalu) or supports the coup. Anything to keep North Korea in one piece.
 

Japhy

Banned
There wasn't going to be a spiritual crisis. Propaganda and a culture of brutality =/= reality.

As with the other attempts that happened in the 90s the big issue, if you're to go though the process and have the Kim regime ousted the biggest issue is going to be the fact that most people in a democratizing North aren't going to be half as interested in unification with the RoK as people in the west think they would be.

Big question is going to be economic. At this point the modern system of small scale, admit to nothing Capitalism isn't even halfway to establishment and most people were living in a barter system. Integration in the world economy would be considerably more difficult then a coup happening in the present day or a decade ago.
 
As with the other attempts that happened in the 90s the big issue, if you're to go though the process and have the Kim regime ousted the biggest issue is going to be the fact that most people in a democratizing North aren't going to be half as interested in unification with the RoK as people in the west think they would be.
I disagree here, the issue wouldn't be the lack of will in the North, but the hesitance of anyone else to pay for the enormous costs that reunification would entail. There's the economic integration and bringing North Korea into the modern age, but you'd also be dealing with a mass exodus of people wanting out that no one would want to deal with.
 

Japhy

Banned
I disagree here, the issue wouldn't be the lack of will in the North, but the hesitance of anyone else to pay for the enormous costs that reunification would entail.
North Korea isn't East Germany. Nor is it the cartoonish world of drones that their propaganda likes to push out. If you read the assessments of people who actually have spent their careers studying things (38North being the premier think tank for such in the English Speaking World) it becomes pretty clear that there's a nationalist thought, separate from Seoul or even the dictatorship of the Kim's at play. Reunification is not going to be some sort of massive push, unless one is going to take the position that the North Korean People are incapable of democracy.
 
If the coup plotters had more brains, they'll either keep Kim as a figurehead, or if he's to be offed, pin everything that had went wrong with the country on him and try to curry favour with the Chinese. Juche, or at least the less personality-cult-ish parts, would probably be retained or swapped with 'Socialism with Korean Characteristics'. Otherwise, the country is headed for civil war that'll likely see the Chinese, Russian and US-ROK forces pouring in to restore order.
 
If the coup plotters had more brains, they'll either keep Kim as a figurehead, or if he's to be offed, pin everything that had went wrong with the country on him and try to curry favour with the Chinese. Juche, or at least the less personality-cult-ish parts, would probably be retained or swapped with 'Socialism with Korean Characteristics'. Otherwise, the country is headed for civil war that'll likely see the Chinese, Russian and US-ROK forces pouring in to restore order.

Socialism with Korean characteristics is definitely an idea how things would play out. But they don't need to keep Kim Jong-il in charge if another relative is more pliable. Kim Jong-il's younger brother Kim Pyong-il, who was effectively sent into exile in the Warsaw Pact to avoid posing a threat to Kim Jong-il (or Kim Il-sung), might be a good choice for leader. Jang Song-thaek might also be an option, and one which would help wean the North Korean people off of the cult of Juche. Kim Jong-nam is too young at that point I think. No matter who they pick, the military will be in charge of the North Korean state and the offices held by Kim Jong-il/his successor will be rendered powerless.

South Korean politics are going to be a lot more focused on the unification issue although it will remain only slightly less difficult than OTL due to the many inherent issues.
 
I fear a breakdown. The people see Kim Jong-il as a literal good. When his father died the nation seriously lost it.


If Kim Jong-il is fully removed, even killed, there is going to be a severe spiritual crisis. Discovering everything you know was a lie; could we see something akin to the final days of the Third Reich? Cults don't fall quietly and you'd better believe South Korea and the US would attempt to capitalize in some way.

China likely drives in (can't have America at the Yalu) or supports the coup. Anything to keep North Korea in one piece.

According to what I’ve read about NK, the whole “Kim Jong-whoever is God” is about 50-50 between true believers and people who know it’s all bullshit and go along to get along. Furthermore, Kim Jong-il may not have had the same pull as his father, so it may result in a schism rather than a total breakdown. Those dedicated to the Kim regime would likely redouble their efforts against what would almost certainly be a fledgling military dictatorship, and it could go one of three ways:

1. The Kim-ites win, restore the monarchy, and assuming Kim Jong-il is alive, he’s restored to the throne (if the rebels execute him, I have no idea who would take over.) Things go back to the way they were, possibly with a strong tone of punishing rebels with powerful reminders of the crushed rebellion.

2. The military wins, Kim Jong-il is executed or exiled along with his whole family, and the whole nation is on the track to modernization. At least for the time being, it remains an independent nation with the goal of reuniting with SK, but there’s a lot of work to do before that becomes feasible. SK becomes a tepid ally, but the model of modernization will probably be somewhere between SK and Deng’s China, meaning democracy in a generation is maybe 50-50 and would contain a lot of elements of the old regime. True democracy probably only comes with reunification, and with SK’s population being more than twice that of NK’s, there could be a lot of seeds of mistrust sewn, like with the fall of the Berlin Wall times a thousand.

3. It’s a stalemate, possibly with a partitioned NK. Splitting it east-west means Pyongyang goes to whoever gets the western half (probably the Kims) whereas a north-south split means Pyongyang can be split. The Kims probably get the north half, since it shares a border with China and they can keep the imperial palace and the nightmare camps. Defections would be a problem in NK moreso than normal, at least until NK can mine the borders, and the new, umm, Central Korea modernizes. So after a generation or so, Central Korea joins SK in an expanded Republic of Korea while the North is a smaller version of its insane self.
 
3. It’s a stalemate, possibly with a partitioned NK. Splitting it east-west means Pyongyang goes to whoever gets the western half (probably the Kims) whereas a north-south split means Pyongyang can be split. The Kims probably get the north half, since it shares a border with China and they can keep the imperial palace and the nightmare camps. Defections would be a problem in NK moreso than normal, at least until NK can mine the borders, and the new, umm, Central Korea modernizes. So after a generation or so, Central Korea joins SK in an expanded Republic of Korea while the North is a smaller version of its insane self.

This is a TL worth reading about. If only I had time to write on it. :V
 
This is a TL worth reading about. If only I had time to write on it. :V

Amen. I wish I could just sit and write 40 hours a week. I’d finish my Cool Brees TL, write my idea for a Montreal Expos dynasty, and then do this. Plus my idea for a novel about a guy like me running for President.
 
Kim Jong-il definitely didn't have the respect his father had, and I imagine it was even worse back in 1996 when his own cult of personality was still relatively new. But I just can't see one side not outright winning. If there's a DPRK civil war, then either the Kim Jong-il faction will win and kill lots of people, or the anti-Kim-Jong-il faction will win and institute their own state (which will probably end up opening up). Each side will probably try and court the Chinese to gain support, and ultimately, whoever China thinks is best for their interests in regards to South Korea and the US will win. Divided North Korea is bad news for China and they wouldn't want it. In theory, the anti-Kim-Jong-il side could try and get South Korean or American support, but that would be politically very dangerous since China would not be pleased, unless China can come to some agreement with South Korea and the US regarding what happens in North Korea after Kim Jong-il is gone.
 
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