What if the Nazi's respect Dutch neutrality in WWII

Lets ignore the likelyhood of it happening, but what if the Nazi's respected Dutch neutrality, just like the Germans did in WWI (they respected Swedish and Swiss neutrality, so it is not completely impossible). What would be the consequences?

Short term? Would the German attack on France be as succesful as it was OTL if they cant use the Netherlands for maneuvering or without the Dutch raided supplies?

Midterm? how much would the ability to trade with the rest of the (neutral) word through the Netherlands be beneficial for Germany? What would happen in the East? Would Japan still atach the Dutch East Indies? And what would that mean for the war in Europe? Would the Netherlands actualy join the oil bloccade against Japan while being neutral?

Longterm? Would the Netherlands remain neutral after the war and not join NATO or the (proto) EU? and join at the same time as Sweden and Austria did?
 
Dutch would still be in the War after December 7th, 1941

I don't think their Neutrality in Europe would last much beyond that
 
The War would be totally different. The reason Germany became so powerful in 1941, was because they had an easy time stealing resources, gold reserves, weapons, vehicles, and industry from Western Europe in 1940. They don't get any of that if France doesn't fall. And a reason France fell was because their main armies got outmaneuvered and surrounded in Belgium, resulting in Dunkirk.
However, if the Germans don't invade the Netherlands, then Allied armies don't rush north through Belgium, are better positioned to stop the main German advance through the ardennes. For a little while things look like they would be a repeat of 1914, but Germany is actually in a much worse position.
By 1942 Germany is loosing the war as badly as OTL late 1944, being invaded by the Allies in the West and the Soviets in the East.

See PDF's Blunted Sickle timeline for an idea of what this would look like.
 

Driftless

Donor
Dutch would still be in the War after December 7th, 1941

I don't think their Neutrality in Europe would last much beyond that

Which brings up some interesting follow-on questions....
  • The Dutch had a proficient espionage service and I believe they received info through Admiral Canaris' works (i.e. they had good info about the planned invasions of Denmark and Norway, which they passed through to those countries). Might that service have detected German contingency plans around Japan going to war against the DEI. How does the Dutch military prepare?
  • IF the Japanese attack the DEI and war is underway, what do the Germans do and when? Sweep into the Netherlands on the order of what they did in May 1940? Does the Kriegsmarine (surface raiders & uboats) attack Dutch shipping worldwide?
  • If the Dutch estimate that a German attack is likely coming sooner or later, do they shift their gold reserves and other treasures offshore to neutral ground? (US or safe zone colonies - Curacao, etc)
  • Even with foreknowledge, based on OTL, the Queen probably stays in country until the bullets fly.
 
The War would be totally different. The reason Germany became so powerful in 1941, was because they had an easy time stealing resources, gold reserves, weapons, vehicles, and industry from Western Europe in 1940. They don't get any of that if France doesn't fall. And a reason France fell was because their main armies got outmaneuvered and surrounded in Belgium, resulting in Dunkirk.
However, if the Germans don't invade the Netherlands, then Allied armies don't rush north through Belgium, are better positioned to stop the main German advance through the ardennes. For a little while things look like they would be a repeat of 1914, but Germany is actually in a much worse position.
By 1942 Germany is loosing the war as badly as OTL late 1944, being invaded by the Allies in the West and the Soviets in the East.
So what would Japan do in such a case? Leave the European colonies alone? Or still attack?
 
So what would Japan do in such a case? Leave the European colonies alone? Or still attack?

Needed the Oil, and DEI was the only place to get it.

But the Q is, would they deal? Could the Japanese make an offer they couldn't refuse?
 
Needed the Oil, and DEI was the only place to get it.

But the Q is, would they deal? Could the Japanese make an offer they couldn't refuse?
I believe that the reason for the oil embargo was because Japan annexed French Indo-China. If France doesn't fall Japan would not be able to annex French Indo-China as easily.So no oil embargo would probably mean that the Dutch would sell oil to Japan.

Actualy, without the fall of the Netherlands the Dutch might simply sell oil to Japan anyway, even if France falls. The Dutch government would not be as dependent on Britain and the allies as the Dutch government in exile was OTL. I could even see the Dutch willing to sell oil to Japan, but not be able to because of Britain and the USA. That might be an interesting delemma for Japan though. Attack just the USA and Britain and make sure the Dutch can sell oil to you? Or also attack the DEI and drag the Netherlands into the war.
 
I believe that the reason for the oil embargo was because Japan annexed French Indo-China. If France doesn't fall Japan would not be able to annex French Indo-China as easily.So no oil embargo would probably mean that the Dutch would sell oil to Japan.

It's unlikely that Japan would act in Indochina if Germany hadn't occupied France. It was the fall of France and Netherlands which fueled Japanese expansionism in SE Asia. It's also worth-noting that even with the weakened French colonial administration, the Japanese wanted to give an impression that the occupation was not an offensive military operation but done diplomatically and in cooperation with the French. That wouldn't be probably possible if France hasn't fallen.
 
What if they marched through Limburg, but left the rest of the country in peace?

It depends on whether the Dutch resist this militarily, which would lead to them ending up in the Allied camp, or whether the Dutch government caves under threats and allows the Wehrmacht to go through Limburg, which could result in the Allies considering the Dutch an Axis power and declaring war. In the former case, the question is can the Allies bolster the Dutch in time before their arguably weak military collapses. In the latter case, the British occupy Indonesia until the Japanese kick them out and the colonial administration collaborates in the same way it did in French Indochina.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
It depends on whether the Dutch resist this militarily, which would lead to them ending up in the Allied camp, or whether the Dutch government caves under threats and allows the Wehrmacht to go through Limburg, which could result in the Allies considering the Dutch an Axis power and declaring war.
The Allies didn’t consider Sweden to be an Axis power.
 
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