Russia isn't getting involved in 1905, and isn't far along in their revamping of the army by 1911. Both of these gives Germany a decided advantage. On the downside, they haven't switched to emphasizing u-boats over the surface fleet, though, so they don't have an effective sea branch to hinder Britain. Britain is barely into the Entente in 1905, so it's not certain they jump into the fray, especially if Russia is out of the picture.
I've long thought that conventional wisdom had Germany's chances peaked around 1905 and then slowly diminished thereafter.