What if the Moroccan crisis would lead to WWI?

1905 probably sees the Germans run out of nitrates. 1911 they might actually win though. (Didn't they have a better industrial lead in 1911 vs 1914?)
 
1905 probably sees the Germans run out of nitrates. 1911 they might actually win though. (Didn't they have a better industrial lead in 1911 vs 1914?)

But the german Army was much smaller in 1911. And Russia would in any case support France. 1905, weakend because of the defeat against Japan and the Revolution, propably not. And is it in 1905 really sure, that Britain would support France and declare war to Germany. So I think 1905 would give Germany a better chance.
 
Russia isn't getting involved in 1905, and isn't far along in their revamping of the army by 1911. Both of these gives Germany a decided advantage. On the downside, they haven't switched to emphasizing u-boats over the surface fleet, though, so they don't have an effective sea branch to hinder Britain. Britain is barely into the Entente in 1905, so it's not certain they jump into the fray, especially if Russia is out of the picture.

I've long thought that conventional wisdom had Germany's chances peaked around 1905 and then slowly diminished thereafter.
 
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