What if the Mongols continue invading Europe?

What if the Mongol khan does not die after defeating Hungary and Poland, and goes to continue the war against Europe, would they be successful and how far would they reach? (I think maybe the West Rhein, South of Alpines and Northern Europe are able to remain independent due to natural barriers if Mongols are successful at defeating at least the HRE and Byzantines, if they are successful, the Mongols would definitely fall, the Mongol invasion of Europe just increases the chances and probably decreases the time, but would an independent Horde form like Ilkhanate and the Golden Horde, or would it be apart of the Golden Horde? How long would they last until they fall? How would this effect Europe? Probably a power vaccum in Eastern-Central Europe like what happened in Russia but more foreign involvement, French invasions, Possible centralization beyond the HRE, Northern Europe could expand earlier into Eastern-Central europe, probably a Holy coalition would form, including Christian rebels leading to the repulse of Mongols from Central Europe, what do you think would happen?
 
There are basicly two opinions about the Mongols conquering Europe on this board.
1. The Mongols are awesome, of course they can conquer Europe
2. The combination of bad horse country, many fortifications, disunified country combined with the fact that the area is relatively poor (thus little gain for the Mongols) means they probably don't care enough to try, or if they do they quit relatively early on and move over to easier wealthier parts of the world.
 
What if the Mongol khan does not die after defeating Hungary and Poland, and goes to continue the war against Europe, would they be successful and how far would they reach? (I think maybe the West Rhein, South of Alpines and Northern Europe are able to remain independent due to natural barriers if Mongols are successful at defeating at least the HRE and Byzantines, if they are successful, the Mongols would definitely fall, the Mongol invasion of Europe just increases the chances and probably decreases the time, but would an independent Horde form like Ilkhanate and the Golden Horde, or would it be apart of the Golden Horde? How long would they last until they fall? How would this effect Europe? Probably a power vaccum in Eastern-Central Europe like what happened in Russia but more foreign involvement, French invasions, Possible centralization beyond the HRE, Northern Europe could expand earlier into Eastern-Central europe, probably a Holy coalition would form, including Christian rebels leading to the repulse of Mongols from Central Europe, what do you think would happen?
A tributary HRE would be interesting. What would be the consequences of a Mongol Invasion on serfdom be ? Or a fractured Horde , that ends up being assimilating and being baptized. Mongol khans becoming dukes and princes.
 
There are basicly two opinions about the Mongols conquering Europe on this board.
1. The Mongols are awesome, of course they can conquer Europe
2. The combination of bad horse country, many fortifications, disunified country combined with the fact that the area is relatively poor (thus little gain for the Mongols) means they probably don't care enough to try, or if they do they quit relatively early on and move over to easier wealthier parts of the world.
Funny, you exposed both the dichotomy and your opinion.
 
They lost one-third of their numbers conquering Hungary, and did not finish it completely. HRE wont be easy.
 
I think that any Mongol deep invasion of Europe will be similar in scope and purpose to the Avar and later Magyar invasions. Pannonia provides the most convenient geographic base for a nomad conqueror coming from the Pontic Steppe (if the Mongols don't come by the way of the Balkans, of course, as they never went as far as Constantinople AFAIK).

From there onwards, we would see quick raids deep into northern Italy and southern Germany. Some bold advanced parties might go as far as France (likely by the way of Italy, but that depends on divergences). Most likely, Poland, Bohemia, Saxony and Lombardy, as well as Croatia and Serbia, will suffer the blunt of the Mongol horde in Hungary. I have a hard time imagining they will want to go as far as the Atlantic to conquer, like they would hardly go to southern India or Tunisia if they had succeeded against Delhi and the Mamluks, respectively. I stress, again, that this scenario only makes sense if they are based on Hungary or at least western Ukraine. If their base remains in Sarai or Volga, I doubt they would go further than Poland and Serbia, like OTL.
 
I have to agree it will be Pannonia as a base state. Lots of impact on surrounding states. Either the HRE fractures and re-forms under France or we get another Ottonian style reformation and centralisation.
Lots and lots of potential butterflies.
Eventually the Pannonian Khanate will fall, christianise, or both.
 
What if the Mongol khan does not die after defeating Hungary and Poland, and goes to continue the war against Europe, would they be successful and how far would they reach? (I think maybe the West Rhein, South of Alpines and Northern Europe are able to remain independent due to natural barriers if Mongols are successful at defeating at least the HRE and Byzantines, if they are successful, the Mongols would definitely fall, the Mongol invasion of Europe just increases the chances and probably decreases the time, but would an independent Horde form like Ilkhanate and the Golden Horde, or would it be apart of the Golden Horde? How long would they last until they fall? How would this effect Europe? Probably a power vaccum in Eastern-Central Europe like what happened in Russia but more foreign involvement, French invasions, Possible centralization beyond the HRE, Northern Europe could expand earlier into Eastern-Central europe, probably a Holy coalition would form, including Christian rebels leading to the repulse of Mongols from Central Europe, what do you think would happen?

I'd probably say they can't take all of Europe. They'd reach their Vienna, like the Ottomans. I'd say Maybe they could get down to the Balkans, and conquer that, but the Northern European plains are pretty good for horses. They could probably invade modern-day Poland, and the Baltics, but once they start going into Germany, and Western Europe, that's where it ends for sure.
 
I think the Mongols could probably have forced most of the European Kingdoms to at least pay some tribute - if they had really been united and determined to do so. After all, they overran other areas like southern China that were far from good for steppe cavalry. They did this largely by forcing areas they had already conquered to supply them with infantry and siege weapons and ships to do the kind of fighting that their cavalry wasn't suited to.

I don't think it would happen, though, because Europe at the time wasn't as rich and valuable a conquest as southern China, and even if they had remained determined to keep pushing westward, some internal dispute or civil war would probably have still broken out before they pushed all the way through Europe.

A full blown invasion or even a series of big raids could still have had a seriously destructive and traumatizing effect on central and Western Europe, though.
 
It's obvious! The answer is always the same! The end result is a somehow even larger Duchy of Lithuania! Pls tell me you have that image.
One does not simply lose the image

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Frederick II (at the head of mostly his own army but some allied forces in a near-crusade type gathering) decisively defeats them at the Battle of Glogau in 1244. By 1250, Frankokratia rules from Constantinople to Kiev
 
You get a new khanate centered in Hungary and including Bulgaria and Poland and maybe Bohemia. The eastern parts of the Holy Roman Empire pay tribute to the Mongols. If they go further, then conquering France and Italy would be their best bets since those are the wealthiest parts of medieval Europe and would also net you the cities of Belgium, the Netherlands, and North Germany which were also fairly wealthy. This leaves Scandinavia, Spain and the Balkans unconquered, although you might as well attack them too despite the relative poverty and the difficult terrain, even though you need to take the forests and hills and mountains and all their fortifications to secure the prizes of France and Italy. The British Isles might as well be the Japan of Europe, though, even though a sizable fleet and army could certainly take England even if Wales and the Scottish Highlands would be a challenge. It's just the English (and Welsh, and Scottish, and Irish) would be alarmed at the developments on the continent and thus prepare a defense in response. Scandinavia is also challenging, since this means effective rule over Novgorod to establish control over Finland to get the ability to project power in Sweden to secure the invasion of Norway (although Denmark is also a good place to project power from). That's a lot of forests and mountains at the edge of Mongol rule which would be good places to defeat a Mongol army, like the Mongol invasion of Indonesia.

A Mongol khanate based in Hungary would likely convert to Christianity, although whether it's Orthodoxy or Catholicism would depend on a lot of things. It just helps dealing with the peoples being ruled.
 
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