What if the Korean War ended with one Korea (ROK)?

[CT23]

Let's say somehow the Korean War ended with a united Korea (pro-West ROK with capital of Seoul). I hope that's not an ASB level premise.


What would that country be like today? Would it be as prosperous as South Korea is today or would it have been hampered trying to develop the northern part?

 

[Dan1988]

Probably the latter, since China would pitch a fit. Korea would remain a Third-World country with all sorts of problems and make Thailand seem sane in comparison.

 

[okmangeez]

Probably the latter, since China would pitch a fit. Korea would remain a Third-World country with all sorts of problems and make Thailand seem sane in comparison.

I would like to counter this claim.

Both North and South Korea were quite decent until the war, which raged on and destroyed much of the entire country. Assuming that this is a quick war (and the only possible scenario is that the Chinese never join the war), that means the war ends within a few months. Damage is done, but not total destruction like OTL (3 years of war took a toll on civilian lives, as well as infrastructure and industry). That means Korea won't have a terrible time trying to get back up. And seeing that Korea is practically alone on the Asian mainland, the US will definitely pump some money into Korea (And it did in OTL, just not as much as Japan or Europe).

China would have no problem with a united Korea, as long as no US troops are stationed within Korea. And since the communists were only power in for a few years in the north, the population isn't brainwashed and there won't be major communist uprisings. In fact, civilians in Pyongyang welcomed US and South Korean troops with open arms when they took the city in '50.

Rhee was corrupt, yes. But he kept his country together through turmoil... Somehow. And if we continue the line of leaders like OTL, General Park will have a much easier time modernizing Korea due to the plentiful resources in the North (yes, the north has a LOT of resources).

So I would say this Korea is richer than OTL Korea. Why? More resources, more manpower, a semi-intact industry to start with, US aid, no major hostility with the Chinese, and no fear of communism to drive the country into paranoia. In this scenario, I see this Korea's economy sitting slightly higher than OTL's ($1.7 trillion-$2.0 trillion), a slightly larger population, and still prosperous.

 

[Roland Traveler]

I would like to counter this claim.

Both North and South Korea were quite decent until the war, which raged on and destroyed much of the entire country. Assuming that this is a quick war (and the only possible scenario is that the Chinese never join the war), that means the war ends within a few months. Damage is done, but not total destruction like OTL (3 years of war took a toll on civilian lives, as well as infrastructure and industry). That means Korea won't have a terrible time trying to get back up. And seeing that Korea is practically alone on the Asian mainland, the US will definitely pump some money into Korea (And it did in OTL, just not as much as Japan or Europe).

China would have no problem with a united Korea, as long as no US troops are stationed within Korea. And since the communists were only power in for a few years in the north, the population isn't brainwashed and there won't be major communist uprisings. In fact, civilians in Pyongyang welcomed US and South Korean troops with open arms when they took the city in '50.

Rhee was corrupt, yes. But he kept his country together through turmoil... Somehow. And if we continue the line of leaders like OTL, General Park will have a much easier time modernizing Korea due to the plentiful resources in the North (yes, the north has a LOT of resources).

So I would say this Korea is richer than OTL Korea. Why? More resources, more manpower, a semi-intact industry to start with, US aid, no major hostility with the Chinese, and no fear of communism to drive the country into paranoia. In this scenario, I see this Korea's economy sitting slightly higher than OTL's ($1.7 trillion-$2.0 trillion), a slightly larger population, and still prosperous.

Only slightly higher? I'd imagine the North would have at least 150% of its OTL populace due to a better economy, no totalitarian regime randomly carting off entire families to death, excuse me, reeducation camps for make believe crimes, and much more food.
Also, unless China and the USSR still have their split, leading to a China-US alliance, then Korea is still going to have to worry about China breathing down its neck. Though China would likely be content to stir up dissent now and again, there's still going to be that fear that the Yalu is going to suddenly be the frontline. It'll be fortified on both sides, no doubt.

 

[CT23]

I'm more concerned with how history would develop after this POD than how the POD was itself achieved...but maybe one of the ways this could happen is that the US promised China it would only keep a few troops in a united ROK (and south of the OTL DMZ)?

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

Let's say somehow the Korean War ended with a united Korea (pro-West ROK with capital of Seoul). I hope that's not an ASB level premise.

What would that country be like today? Would it be as prosperous as South Korea is today or would it have been hampered trying to develop the northern part?

Well... suppose that Macarthur had some kind of health problem just after the Inchon landings, and had to retire. (He was 70, so why not?) Ridgway steps in, and avoids Macarthur's wild rhetoric about taking the war to China and using nuclear weapons. He also slows down the pursuit into North Korea, halting the UN Forces for a build-up on a line just north of Pyongyang and Hamhung, and cancels the probes to the Yalu River. Neither he nor President Truman explicitly rule out a later advance to the Yalu, though.

Nonetheless, Mao decides against intervening in Korea at that time. By December 1950, the UN front line is consolidated, with the bulk of the forces at the front and supply solidified. Kim Il-Sung has gotten some arms from Mao and Stalin, regrouped his forces, and dug in strongly (he thinks) - but continues to skirmish aggressively.

So in 1951, the UN forces resume their advance, brushing aside KIm's remnants, and close gradually to the Yalu. Mao blusters, but holds back.

The Korean War ends in May 1951.

Now I'm going to handwave consequences.

First, Korea will be substantially less damaged. I don't suppose it did Seoul a lot of good to be overrun by the Chinese and then liberated again.

Second, a lot of Koreans won't be killed.

Third, Korea's military burder will be smaller than OTL, I think. Korea will have to maintain substantial forces against Chinese attack, but the Chinese threat will be viewed less seriously than the OTL NorK threat (China has not actually fought in Korea, and its forces are distant from Korea's heart). There will be a U.S. "tripwire" force to deter any Chinese attempt at a sudden onslaught.

Fourth, Korea will have about twice the area and population. As of 1951, the two halves of the country are about equal in development (unlike today).

So my BOTE estimate is that Korea's 2016 economy could be twice the OTL RoK economy, which would boost it from 13th to 8th in the world.