What if the KMT never lost Hainan?

BigBlueBox

Banned
As the title says, what if the KMT never lost Hainan during the Chinese Civil War? Would their claim to being the legitimate government of China be stronger, thus leading to more countries maintaining recognition of them? Would the population of Taiwan feel more Chinese, leading to a reduced desire for Taiwanese independence?
 
I don't think it would change much on the international scale. The Communists still have the mainland, and if the geopolitical realities of the time demands, the US and other countries would still switch to Beijing. Not to mention, being closer to the mainland and already infested with communist guerillas, Hainan could potentially slip under communist control in future. That it was overrun at the end of the Civil War has as much to do with collapsing Nationalist morale and incompetence as the communists already in position to clear the beachheads for their admittedly woeful amphibious forces.

As for what happens with a KMT Taiwan, well, Chiang and co have a good population base to draw administrators from to run Taiwan, if already compromised by communist sympathies. Taiwanese-born Han and aborigines could find themselves even more marginalized as Japanese sympathizers, and depending on where the KMT capital will be, could become a virtual colony. The seat will likely be Taipei, as per OTL, but I can see the KMT trying for Haikou or another city in Hainan just to make a point (before shelling from the mainland become too intense). Paradoxically, having Hainan would heighten Taiwanese desires for independence, as Chiang would probably prioritize Hainanese Chinese over Taiwanese, being more Mainlander and 'untainted' by Japanese influence. The KMT might even attempt to colonize Taiwan with Hainan 'loyalists', which would likely raise the locals' ire even further.
 
I think this is darn near impossible. Taiwan is separate from the mainland by a 100 mile wide strait whereas Hainan is about 15 miles from the mainland.

Now, if you could move Hainan Island about 50 miles further south, then we've got something.
 
I think this is darn near impossible. Taiwan is separate from the mainland by a 100 mile wide strait whereas Hainan is about 15 miles from the mainland.

Now, if you could move Hainan Island about 50 miles further south, then we've got something.

Well, Kinmen is just right at Xiamen's doorstep and it remained under KMT control. Granted, the PLA had its own run of really bad luck when they encountered a KMT landing craft doing a bit of sugar smuggling...
 
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Well, Kinmen is just right at Xiamen's doorstep and it remained under KMT control. Granted, the PLA had its own run of really bad luck when they encountered a KMT landing craft doing a bit of sugar smuggling...

Good point but the US was able to cover the resupply of Kinmen and Matsu. Hainan is almost 700 miles from Taiwan and it is a lot bigger than the smaller islands which allowed the PRC to slip irregular forces on to the island who helped scout landing locations and launched their own attacks. Unless the US is willing to help the KMT fight for Hainan, I can't see it holding out. The problem is that Hainan was captured before the PRC intervention in Korea so US involvement is unlikely.
 
Good point but the US was able to cover the resupply of Kinmen and Matsu. Hainan is almost 700 miles from Taiwan and it is a lot bigger than the smaller islands which allowed the PRC to slip irregular forces on to the island who helped scout landing locations and launched their own attacks. Unless the US is willing to help the KMT fight for Hainan, I can't see it holding out. The problem is that Hainan was captured before the PRC intervention in Korea so US involvement is unlikely.

Yea, as far as I can tell, the problems run too deep to solve in the immediate battle. I'm currently exploring some possibilities for my TL, such as a bright spark among the KMT doing a number on communist irregulars, but they're not only very unlikely, but they also don't address the issues that led to the KMT defeat in the civil war in the first place.
 
I think this is darn near impossible. Taiwan is separate from the mainland by a 100 mile wide strait whereas Hainan is about 15 miles from the mainland.

Now, if you could move Hainan Island about 50 miles further south, then we've got something.

It is arguable that if the GMD had held on to Hainan just two more months in 1950, until the Korean War started, the US would then have committed itself to the defense of Hainan (as well as Taiwan).

You might say that the two situations (Taiwan and Hainan) are not the same, and that the US would never have committed itself to defend an area so close to the mainland and so "indefensible" as Hainan. But after all, the US and PRC during the 1950's sometimes seemed to be on the brink of war over Quemoy and Matsu--just eight miles off the mainland. Once the Korean War started, there was a lot of popular support in the US for the idea that "not one more additional inch" must be ceded to the Chinese Communists.
 
It's an interesting idea to have a Republic of China that includes what could essentially function as a real second province. Maybe we see Taipei involved in the Vietnam War?
 
It is arguable that if the GMD had held on to Hainan just two more months in 1950, until the Korean War started, the US would then have committed itself to the defense of Hainan (as well as Taiwan).

You might say that the two situations (Taiwan and Hainan) are not the same, and that the US would never have committed itself to defend an area so close to the mainland and so "indefensible" as Hainan. But after all, the US and PRC during the 1950's sometimes seemed to be on the brink of war over Quemoy and Matsu--just eight miles off the mainland. Once the Korean War started, there was a lot of popular support in the US for the idea that "not one more additional inch" must be ceded to the Chinese Communists.

The difference is that things didn't come to a head over the small islands in the Strait until 1954 and while Truman committed itself to defending Taiwan in June 1950, that was easily done by simply sending ships of the 7th Fleet trucking through the Strait, that's harder to do WRT Hainan. However, if you can delay the occupation of Hainan until after the PRC intervenes on the Korean Peninsula then I agree, the US just might intervene. Maybe even insert a battalion or even a brigade on to Hainan before the PRC attacks. Now the Chinese are faced with the prospect of a wider war with the US.
 
I don't think it would change much on the international scale.

That would be true only to the extent that the mainland under Communist rule would eventually arise in national power as in the OTL today. However, with KMT controlling the chain of island with significant landmasses -- Hainan, Taiwan, KMT would be a greater participant in the the local conflict for controlling the islands on South China Sea including Paracel, Spratly and Pratas Islands. Hainan would give KMT who already controlling Taiwan at least more variety in mineral, oil and gas resources.
In terms of international affairs, the coastline of South China is long. Many ports could still be used as they are now.
 
The difference is that things didn't come to a head over the small islands in the Strait until 1954 and while Truman committed itself to defending Taiwan in June 1950, that was easily done by simply sending ships of the 7th Fleet trucking through the Strait, that's harder to do WRT Hainan. However, if you can delay the occupation of Hainan until after the PRC intervenes on the Korean Peninsula then I agree, the US just might intervene. Maybe even insert a battalion or even a brigade on to Hainan before the PRC attacks. Now the Chinese are faced with the prospect of a wider war with the US.

One thing that helped the PLA is that the Communists already had a guerilla force on the island--the Qiongya Column. It is understandable that in 1945-9 the Nationalists found far more urgent things to do than eliminate the guerrilla force on one island--but if they had done so, the task of the invaders would have been considerably more difficult.

In 1946, incidentally, the CCP wanted the Qiongya Column to abandon the island. https://books.google.com/books?id=WdKEAgAAQBAJ&pg=PA59 They would not go along, and eventually the CCP Central Committee agreed to let them stay. A more obedient Qiongya Column would, ironically, have made things harder for the CCP in 1950.
 
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That would be true only to the extent that the mainland under Communist rule would eventually arise in national power as in the OTL today. However, with KMT controlling the chain of island with significant landmasses -- Hainan, Taiwan, KMT would be a greater participant in the the local conflict for controlling the islands on South China Sea including Paracel, Spratly and Pratas Islands. Hainan would give KMT who already controlling Taiwan at least more variety in mineral, oil and gas resources.
In terms of international affairs, the coastline of South China is long. Many ports could still be used as they are now.

I'm still skeptical of the KMT being able to hold on to Hainan long term but if they can, IMO this creates huge butterflies in the SCS. The nine-dash line and the outsized Chinese claim to the South China Sea predates the PRC and today both Beijing and Taipei have the same claim, although only Beijing has the power to throw its weight around. If the KMT holds Taiwan and Hainan, they can expand south, particularly in the 1950s and 1960s when they have significant US support. This could be a very interesting TL.
 
Zheng He is absolutely right about the effect of a ROC Hainan. This actually puts a stopper in the PRC efforts to control the SCS. If Hainan stays ROC, you can be sure that there will be significant US SIGINT there early on, and potentially an actual US air base, US naval base - or shared US/ROC facilities. IMHO butterflies would make a lot of changes but for the moment if the Vietnam War goes on more or less as was, US forces staging out of Hainan are a given. Holding Hainan MIGHT also lead to holding some other smaller offshore islands, which would make life for the PLA-N very difficult.
 
One thing that helped the PLA is that the Communists already had a guerilla force on the island--the Qiongya Column. It is understandable that in 1945-9 the Nationalists found far more urgent things to do than eliminate the guerrilla force on one island--but if they had done so, the task of the invaders would have been considerably more difficult.

In 1946, incidentally, the CCP wanted the Qiongya Column to abandon the island. https://books.google.com/books?id=WdKEAgAAQBAJ&pg=PA59 They would not go along, and eventually the CCP Central Committee agreed to let them stay. A more obedient Qiongya Column would, ironically, have made things harder for the CCP in 1950.
Could a foreign army be used to clear the Column?
 
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