What if the Kaiser died of the Spanish Flu in 1918?

IOTL, Wilhelm II contracted the infamous influenza but made a full recovery after a couple months. Suppose he died instead like so many other infected individuals of the era. What sort of effects might his death in 1918 have on the shape of the German Revolution and Post-War Germany in general?
 
IOTL, Wilhelm II contracted the infamous influenza but made a full recovery after a couple months. Suppose he died instead like so many other infected individuals of the era. What sort of effects might his death in 1918 have on the shape of the German Revolution and Post-War Germany in general?


Depends when in 1918. Obviously if it's after Nov 11 it has no effect to speak of. Earlier in the year, the Crown Prince, as an Army Group Commander, might have had some ideas of his own about strategy or about calling for an armistice, but timing would be everything.
 
Depends when in 1918. Obviously if it's after Nov 11 it has no effect to speak of.

This would have a large impact on monarchist projects in postwar Weimar Germany. In OTL Wilhelm II forbade his sons of harbouring any political ambitions, but with him dead the situation is completely different.
 
The Crown Prince was more realistic about Germany's fate than others in Germany. On August 16th 1918 when there was a high level meeting of Austrians and Germans where the Austrians basically said we need peace "now" or were doing a separate peace and we should initiate a call for negotiations. Germany put them off hoping that an Allied setupback on the western front would help their negotiating position. Of course that didn't happen and the Salonika front collapsed in September, but if the Crown Prince was in charge by August 16th maybe something could be arranged.

So lets say a Crown Prince run Germany agrees with the Austrians and sends a call through the Netherlands that they wish to negotiate and are willing to evacuate France, Belgium and end submarine warfare as a preliminary to any negotiations. Allies accept this as a basis for negotiations and after 5 days present the following terms:

Possible terms:
1) Germany evacuates France and Alsace Lorraine and Belgium doing no demolitions or setting no booby traps, completed within 30 days.
2) An immediate end to submarine warfare.
3) An immediate cease fire on all fronts.
4) Immediate surrender of all vessels (including submarines and destroyers) currently in Zebrugge and Ostend. (Crews repriated back to Germany)
5) Immediate surrender of German forces in East Africa (Soldiers repriated back to Germany)
6) Austrians to evacuate Italy to 1914 boundry plus evacuating the port of Trieste within 30 days.
7) Austrians / Bulgarians to evacuate Serbia, Montenegro, Rommania and Albania. Central powers still allowed use of Danube for non military transport during cease fire (all within 30 days).
8) No more advances in Russia, but Central Powers allowed to maintain control of this area for the time being.
9) Ultimate peace treaty negotiations with all parties to begin in the Netherlands after those 30 days.

With her military still intact if negotiations fail, Germany agrees to these terms.

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However if the Crown Prince were to take over later in this ATL, once the Allies have broken through at Salonika and broke the Hindenburg line I can't see it making much difference really, the Allies are in a position of strength which they are not going to give up regardless of German politics.
 
To help figure out the time line, I did a little bit of searching and I don't believe that the Kaiser had Spanish Flu when he was fleeing to the Netherlands in November. Nor do I think he had it in the last days of the war, but let's say conservative and assume he had it until October 31st (damnit, why are there no sources on the internet?). If he had it for four months, he would have had to have caught the bug at the very tail end of June. Plenty of time for the Crown Prince to effect a change as Catspoke suggests above.

This source makes me think the first, non-deadly wave of the flu which Wilhelm caught was making it rounds about Europe in the late Spring or early Summer, so I think we can confidently guess he caught it a bit earlier in June than the 31st. Let's say for arguments sake that Kaiser Wilhelm dies of complications of the flu on July 1st, 1918. How does that specific date effect the outcome of the war?
 
Seems unlikely that even with the July 1st date that the Crown Prince would want to or could stop the second battle of the Marne. Things became obvious to many people including the Crown Prince after second Marne and even more so after Amiens.

There is a free memoir of the Crown Prince available on line which might be an interesting read to figure out what he might have done. The parts I have read seem to indicate he would have sought a compromise peace early, but that politically he couldn't have pulled off such a thing until the general populace in Germany knew they were going to win early (i.e after 2nd Marne and Amiens)

http://archive.org/details/memoirsofcrownpr00wilhuoft

With the Kaiser out of the way, and him being a target of Allied propaganda it seems that compromise is more possible until the looming Allied military victory becomes apparent late September. The Allies will demand the end of submarine warfare and the evacuation of France and Belgium (and probably Metz and Strassboug) as prerequisites for any serious peace talks, any German intention of using those as negotiating chips is a no go. However in his memoir the Crown Prince was willing to negotiate, willing to give up Alcase-Lorraine, so an early peace seems very likely.

Regardless of all that can the Crown Prince avoid revolution and abdication, seems unlikely, any future peace means at least the loss of Germany colonies and Alsace Lorraine, the loss of her fleet. Seems likely the monarchy is forever discredited as part of this, could a more constitutional limited monarch result?
 
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