What if the Japanese Army tried to occupy the Soviet Far East in 1932?

& whats the attitude of the US banks and government? New York had replaced London as the source for Japans investment capital & Japans international transactions were often via US/New York banks. In 1934 the Roosevelt administration ceased backing loans to German industry and government in response to nazi financial and political shenanigans. Would the US do the same were Japan to start a war with the USSR?
The Japanese had drunk the US Kool Aid on a global security system underpinned by the US Dollar at Washington in 1921. This all went to 5hit with the Stockmarket crash and depression.

The US government had trouble getting US banks to toe the line as the banks just wanted to make money with confidence. They could get that by funneling money to Japan who then invested in Manchuria. Investing in China directly was more risky.

The US was very weak in responding to Japanese aggression. US cities were going bankrupt, banks failing, civil strife etc. The initial idea was to pull out of the Washington Naval Treaty but the US ended up by recognising the Soviet Union as this had a bigger impact on Japan.
 
Forget not Standard Oil...

...They might have investigated the Daqing Structures for potential surface signs of oil, only for the Japanese to steal the info and eject them. China was known to hold oil in Szichuan at Yumen and at Shengli in Shandong - areas that might have interested SO. Japan might forgo some military adventures to develop a resource of such strategic importance.
 

raharris1973

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A replay of the Russo-Japanese War, perhaps? Would Japan annex this Far Eastern territory to Manchuria, or spin it off as another satellite?

The concept I had in mind and in the OP was the territory being added to Manchukuo, because the territory of the Amur and Maritime provinces before 1860 was considered part of Manchuria. History can be the pretext for the claim and invasion , and claiming it is Manchuria might make a near term armistice less complicated if Japan does not appear bent on resuscitating the White Russian movement in the Far Ear and Siberia.
 

raharris1973

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& whats the attitude of the US banks and government? New York had replaced London as the source for Japans investment capital & Japans international transactions were often via US/New York banks. In 1934 the Roosevelt administration ceased backing loans to German industry and government in response to nazi financial and political shenanigans. Would the US do the same were Japan to start a war with the USSR?

Not sure why the US reacts more to Japanese aggression against the Soviet Union in the economic sphere than it did against Japanese aggression against China in OTL, especially in 1932 and under the Hoover Administration.
 
Yes, only some light actions were taken by the US in 1937-38. In theory Japan is very vulnerable, but the US has to act, & the action was small for several years.
 
You might want to look over the history of the Far Eastern Republic, which existed for all of 2 1/2 years in about twice the area that's marked for takeover. The Japanese would have had a better chance for this seizure during the Russian civil war when they actually had troops in this zone, but were unwilling or unable to dig in for the long term.

In the 30's, the Soviets had better defenses in the Far East than the Chinese were able to muster, and the Special Far Eastern Army, under the command of the especially able Comandarm Vasily Blyukher was already well trained before the actions at Khalkin-Gol showed their capability, having experienced troops and commanders from the civil war, when they fought and beat the ex-Czarist troops of Kolchak.

Also, the value of the ruble wasn't the goal of the forced grain exports of the period, foreign exchange was. Whether gold, pound sterling, dollars or marks; the USSR was looking to buy machinery abroad and needed more than credit to obtain what they needed. Of little concern to those that died of starvation.
 

raharris1973

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You might want to look over the history of the Far Eastern Republic, which existed for all of 2 1/2 years in about twice the area that's marked for takeover. The Japanese would have had a better chance for this seizure during the Russian civil war when they actually had troops in this zone, but were unwilling or unable to dig in for the long term.

In the 30's, the Soviets had better defenses in the Far East than the Chinese were able to muster, and the Special Far Eastern Army, under the command of the especially able Comandarm Vasily Blyukher was already well trained before the actions at Khalkin-Gol showed their capability, having experienced troops and commanders from the civil war, when they fought and beat the ex-Czarist troops of Kolchak.

Also, the value of the ruble wasn't the goal of the forced grain exports of the period, foreign exchange was. Whether gold, pound sterling, dollars or marks; the USSR was looking to buy machinery abroad and needed more than credit to obtain what they needed. Of little concern to those that died of starvation.

I’ve heard mixed reviews of Blyukher’s performance in the clashes of 37 and 38. Plus he was not in command at khalkin-Gol. And the Soviet Artillery park and armored vehicle park in 1932 was something much less than it would become in 1939.

My reason for preferring 1932 over the Russian Civil War era is that the Japanese masses were more likely to support the Army in the 1930s than in the early 20s. The intervention in the RCW was met with discontent and skepticism that would have been unthinkable in the 1930s possibly just because of changing “animal spirits” or zeitgeist or because of an upsurge in leftist radicalism and liberal Wilsonianism right after WWI.
 
1932 is an interesting year to choose. The Chinese civil wars (the warlord era) had just sort of finished in 1928. Japan was already influential in that.

The Kwantung army apparently did whatever they felt like. In this scenario we could let them carry on and invade USSR. The formal power (Japanese Imperial HQ and government ) would then have a rather interesting problem on their hands.

Manchukuo was formed in 1932 - by and large by the Kwantung army.

Of course the question is; could the Kwantung Army do it all by themselves or would Imperial HQ step in?

Ivan
 

raharris1973

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1932 is an interesting year to choose. The Chinese civil wars (the warlord era) had just sort of finished in 1928. Japan was already influential in that.

The Kwantung army apparently did whatever they felt like. In this scenario we could let them carry on and invade USSR. The formal power (Japanese Imperial HQ and government ) would then have a rather interesting problem on their hands.

Manchukuo was formed in 1932 - by and large by the Kwantung army.

Of course the question is; could the Kwantung Army do it all by themselves or would Imperial HQ step in?

Ivan

The Kwangtung Army could possibly start this by themselves but not finish it that way. Reinforcements would ultimately be needed from the home islands. I think, as in the original Manchuria incident, that the Army based in Korea would do a lot to support the Kwangtung Army.
 
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