What if the Italians fighting stayed out of Russia and the Germans stayed out of North Africa?

raharris1973

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In OTL, the Axis powers traded troops for their priority fronts. What if they had been more specialized, with Italian reinforcements substituting for the Afrika Korps and German (and other minor Axis allies) troops substituting for Italians on the Russian front. What is the result in each place, and if each power mans its front by itself with its maximal force, is that an even trade in terms of quantity? Is it an even trade in terms of quality? Campaign outcomes?
 

Deleted member 1487

Discussing something similar here:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/barbarossa-without-mediterranean-front.420758/
The problem for the Italians is that they didn't have the reinforcements to replace the Afrika Korps with in 1941. Their European armored divisions used in Yugoslavia weren't equipped for African service and were needed for Yugoslavia, though I guess just Ariete armored division could hold the line at El Agheila and let the Brits hold Benghazi and build up logistics to the point they could attack toward Tripoli later. If then the Italians never send any troops to Russia that leaves them with 3 extra quality divisions in 1941 to eventually send to Africa and doesn't really hurt the Germans, but the problem is Greece still has to happen per OTL. Rommel helps in Russia, but it's hard to see his corps being decisive, even as 2 extra panzer divisions with a lot of extra logistic support and some additional air support. If used say in the Baltics potentially you could see some interesting changes there, but that isn't a guarantee. Not sure the Italians by themselves could hold out in Africa into 1942 though. The Italian 8th army will be missed in 1942, as they covered a lot of flank in Case Blue.

So on balance IMHO things go worse for the Italians in Africa in 1941-42, while things go better for the Germans in Russia in 1941, but potentially worse in 1942 depending on what happens with butterflies in 1941.
 

raharris1973

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Balkans in spring of 1941 can have the same force mix as OTL. Africa and Russia are the different ones.
 
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