What if the Italian Army Was Good

What if Mussolini and the fascists managed to develop an effective army equivalent to the French and British. By 1943, Sudan, Egypt, Kenya, Somaliland and Franco-British Middle East falls to the Italians. Would Mussolini from this point on back stab Hitler and join the Allies invading the Reich from the south. I assume that the Germans due to butterflies would have defeated the Soviets at Stalingrad or an equivalent battle and thus the Soviets would be weaker in this TL. Assuming this happens, how would the Cold War play out with there being the West, an Italian Empire and a weaker Soviet Union.

Or is Mussolini's betrayal of Hitler unlikely to happen?
 
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