Good
True: however ITTL he's planning the parade at Cairo, rather than looking for some way of asserting himself
. More importantly, there are new needs to cope with (replenish and re-equip the 10th army, stock again the logistic dumps, open and secure a supply line to AOI through Khartoum and Kassala, repair and refit the naval units damaged in the Mediterranean campaign) and new strategic goals to pursue. IMHO, Greece invasion would not come up under this scenario.Also noted your point about no in depth work done on Italian naval matters... gee, what are you doing at the moment?
Croesus
.IOW ...
They Probably Won't ...
ITTL he's planning the parade at Cairo, rather than looking for some way of asserting himselfRight, I see your point. Well, lets line the ducks up and see which ones get shot down ITTL.
1. Italy is already in Albania and significant portions of his army are in place. The possible next moves for these divisions is Yugoslavia, Greece or redeployment.
2. Mussolini considers SE Europe as within the Italian sphere. Particularly the sphere is rhetoricised (such a word?) as a second Roman Empire, and such an empire certainly includes Greece.
3. Mussolini is pissed at Hitler for continually not revealing his moves; the occupation of Romania in particular. He want's to get his own back in similar coin.
4. OTL Italy issues the order to invade Greece, without telling Hitler, mid Oct. However Mussolini is looking seriously at attacking Greece by July and Italy embarks on a provocation campaign that culiminates in Aug by the sinking of the Greek cruiser Elli.
For (1) the choice is attack or redeploy. Taken at face value Yugoslavia is similar to Greece... except the armies bigger, as is the country. Probably not the best choice for a bully. So it's either attack Greece or redeploy (to Africa).
(2). It is difficult to see how Fascist Imperial ideology can do an about-face on Greece without losing, um, face. You could POD it such that Italy views itself more as a Med/North African power, which certainly is feasible, but is also another POD.
(3). Mussolini declared he wanted Hitler to learn about the invasion of Greece 'in the papers', which demonstrates his petulance and egoism on the matter of continually being treated like the kid brother. He want's success, but he also want's surprise. So he needs to deliver a bolt from the blue. He could attack Spain
(4). Mussolini will need a mucho grande victory to go cold on the idea of attacking Greece. He will need it, not in October when his divisions cross the border, but in July when his thinking starts to dwell increasingly on the invasion. ITTL by July Tenth Army is in possession of Sollum and, having been harrassed by the British all the way from Halfaya Pass, is only now aproaching Sidi Barrani.
By my analysis Greece is the only thing on the menu, unless you POD the strategic focus from SE Europe to N-NE Africa (which is certainly in keeping with the general thrust of the TL, where subgrade Libyan oil is starting to be worked and the Commando Supremo is showing itself as a more rational beast. But taking on Africa means taking on Britain... and if Italy quails as Yugoslavia, it will quail at Britain. Notwithstanding that Italo-British ties in the interwar years were warm.
Croesus
ITTL he's planning the parade at Cairo, rather than looking for some way of asserting himselfRight, I see your point. Well, lets line the ducks up and see which ones get shot down ITTL.
1. Italy is already in Albania and significant portions of his army are in place. The possible next moves for these divisions is Yugoslavia, Greece or redeployment.
2. Mussolini considers SE Europe as within the Italian sphere. Particularly the sphere is rhetoricised (such a word?) as a second Roman Empire, and such an empire certainly includes Greece.
3. Mussolini is pissed at Hitler for continually not revealing his moves; the occupation of Romania in particular. He want's to get his own back in similar coin.
4. OTL Italy issues the order to invade Greece, without telling Hitler, mid Oct. However Mussolini is looking seriously at attacking Greece by July and Italy embarks on a provocation campaign that culiminates in Aug by the sinking of the Greek cruiser Elli.
For (1) the choice is attack or redeploy. Taken at face value Yugoslavia is similar to Greece... except the armies bigger, as is the country. Probably not the best choice for a bully. So it's either attack Greece or redeploy (to Africa).
(2). It is difficult to see how Fascist Imperial ideology can do an about-face on Greece without losing, um, face. You could POD it such that Italy views itself more as a Med/North African power, which certainly is feasible, but is also another POD.
(3). Mussolini declared he wanted Hitler to learn about the invasion of Greece 'in the papers', which demonstrates his petulance and egoism on the matter of continually being treated like the kid brother. He want's success, but he also want's surprise. So he needs to deliver a bolt from the blue. He could attack Spain
(4). Mussolini will need a mucho grande victory to go cold on the idea of attacking Greece. He will need it, not in October when his divisions cross the border, but in July when his thinking starts to dwell increasingly on the invasion. ITTL by July Tenth Army is in possession of Sollum and, having been harrassed by the British all the way from Halfaya Pass, is only now aproaching Sidi Barrani.
By my analysis Greece is the only thing on the menu, unless you POD the strategic focus from SE Europe to N-NE Africa (which is certainly in keeping with the general thrust of the TL, where subgrade Libyan oil is starting to be worked and the Commando Supremo is showing itself as a more rational beast. But taking on Africa means taking on Britain... and if Italy quails as Yugoslavia, it will quail at Britain. Notwithstanding that Italo-British ties in the interwar years were warm.
Croesus
You said it yourself: "Mussolini will need a mucho grande victory to go cold on the idea of attacking Greece. He will need it, not in October when his divisions cross the border, but in July when his thinking starts to dwell increasingly on the invasion.": the mucho grande victory is Malta, where ITTL the Italian flag was raised by the end of June. Anything better or more rewarding than pulling the fangs of the British lion in its Mediterranean fortress? Now there is no need to look for glory in secondary theatres: Benito can start planning the mucho grande victory parade to be held in front of the pyramids, where he will raise the Sword of Islam saluting the new and again victorious Roman legions.
It's not a matter of being afraid to tackle Greece or Yugoslavia: there are much grander ventures and satisfactions awaiting Benito in the Middle East (and they are just there, waiting to be plucked from the trees
Mind, there will be some sabre rattling aimed at both Greece and Yugoslavia (and you may remember that I do consider the conquest of Crete an intermediate stepping stone to bottle the british fleet in Alexandria, and ultimately to kick them off toward the Red sea): I just do not see the reason or the urge to get bogged down on the mountain of Epyrus when there are more significant and ultimately rewarding theatres.
Greece will be handled by suave diplomacy and naked threat (the occupation of crete will be justified by the need to avoid british violations of Greek sovereignity
IMHO, such a gorgeous scenario will be more than satisfying for il Duce.
Question for the board - with the following componant for the war what impact could the Subs have in the Indian ocean from Suez ?? They did have 117 at the start of the war - i had always heard that their cheif defect was a slow submersal time - which in a larger ocean might not have the same neg. impact
At June, 10th, 1940 (at the very beginning of the war) the Regia Marina was composed by
◊ 6 battleships, two of them of modern 35,000 ton. type
◊ 7 cruisers of 10,000 ton.
◊ 14 light cruisers between 5.000 and 8.000 ton.
◊ 12 flotilla leader destroyers
◊ 28 modern destroyers
◊ 19 old model destroyers
◊ 69 torpedo boats
◊ 117 submarines of varied type and tonnage