One question: What does Italy get out of this?
I mean, It's certainly plausible; I just don't see any long term gains.
What if the Italian army had managed to reach the Nile in WW2 ?
- Thread starter zarkov
- Start date
One question: What does Italy get out of this?
I mean, It's certainly plausible; I just don't see any long term gains.
Your points are quite well taken. However, in a TTL where both
major Axis partners are successful, one might expect that there would be a better coordination than in OTL. I can easily agree that nothing will change Hitler's master plan to deal with Russia, and gain the German lebensraum in the east. However, the very favorable situation in the North African theatre is offering some interesting strategic alternatives to the OKW.
My gut feeling is that if Turkey wavers and can be convinced to join the Axis, it makes eminently sense to push through Palestine, get at least Mosul and the Kurdistan and set up a combined thrust against the Caucasus and Baku.
This scenario would require a few german divisions (both armored and kaiser-jaeger) to act as schwerpunkt for the southern offensive (and it would benefit also from getting a few alpine divisions from Italy): these troops might go directly to Turkey, rather than the long way around from Suez. Note that being a mountain campaign it would also make sense to have Rommel as commander. Therefore I would expect to have the Germans leading the main offensive in the Caucasus, while the Italians would be in charge for mopping up the remaining British in Palestine, join up with the Vichy guys in Syria, and protect the Mosul area from a British counter-attack from the south.
If Turkey does not take the bait, the strategic benefits of this approach decrease exponentially: I would not spread out my resources, and put all the punch into a traditional Barbarossa approach.
I wonder how the Japanese would be reading this situation: we are still in late 1940 to spring 1941, and no bridge has yet been burnt. Would the much worse British situation make the Japanese strategists change their mind? No Pearl Harbor in this scenario, but Indochina and Dutch East Indies, assuming that the British do not have the capacity of tackling a new threat, and that FDR will have some difficulties in committing the USA without any direct attack against American territory.
The Mediterranean empire? The Sphinx dismantled and re-built in the Fori Imperiali in Rome? A complete dominance over the Middle East? 999 virgins?
Kenia handed over at the peace table? What is your heart desire, Benito Faeelin? I am sure I can find it and more in my bag of goodies.
PS: obviously the biggest gain of them all is not to have the Germans lording it out all over the place
PS: obviously the biggest gain of them all is not to have the Germans lording it out all over the place
Yes I can't see the Italians getting up early and putting their towels on all of the seats by the pool.
Tentative TL
July 1940: Tenth Army commences operations, occupies Sollum. This was the month originally slated for the advance. Balbo/Gariboldi keeps to this schedule.
August: Tenth Army occupies Sidi Barrani. TTL 'La Guerra di Rapido Corso' is in place and leads to a faster advance of Tenth Army.
September: First Battle of Mersa Matruh is inconclusive. 7th Armoured, lurking in the desert, falls on Tenth Army flank, leading to first tank battle. Mobile Group Maletti (mixed armoured division and mechanised infantry) makes a good account of itself and prevents 7th Armoured from reaching the sea. Gariboldi halts before reaching main British positions.
September: Second Battle of Mersa Matruh results in British withdrawal, although losses even between combatants. A set piece fight where Italian numbers are put to good effect. Further clash between 7th Armoured and Maletti MG an even contest, though Italians left in command of the field.
October: German General von Thoma tours combat area with view to possible contribution of panzer unit [as in OTL].
October: First Battle of El Alamein results in Italian defeat. Tenth Army is having supply problems in light of superior British expertise in desert raiding warfare. Maletti MG poorly disposed in battle, suffers significant loss. Italian assault comes to grief as a result of British artillery and inability of Italian AT guns vs British heavy tanks. Tenth Army withdraws to fixed positions.
November: Elements of 3rd Pz begin to arrive in combat area and constituted as 5th Light under Gen Streich.
November: Second El Alamein where British are defeated and retreat to Nile. 5th Light and Maletti MG penetrates British box system and attacks into rear, turning in behind main positions. 7th Armoured counterattacks and spoils further exploitation, taking substantial losses in process. First big 'bag' of British prisoners taken, together with materiel. A significant British defeat.
December: British holding forces on Nile pushed back by Tenth Army set piece battle, but bulk of remaining forces by now safely across Suez. RN assets removed to Red Sea. Italians finally gain air superiority. Cairo and Alexandria now firmly in Italian hands, although Tenth Army is in serious need of rest and refitting.
Notes.
1. One implication of Italian procurement of Fiat 3000 design is opportunity to retrofit captured French tanks following Battle of France. While Italian and French developments of base design take divergent paths, significant parts of chassis and running gear remain the same. When Maletti MG begins to wear down, Italian industry can obtain improved supply efficiency using French parts.
2. Another implication following on from the doctrinal changes detailed earlier is the non-implementation of the change from ternary to binary divisions (three regiments to two) by Gen Pariani 1938. Further to this increased, though not substantially, mechanisation of regular army infantry divisions occurs as the lessons of the 'less is more' approach are absorbed. This increases the operational flexibility of Italian forces; however this is mitigated by Commando Supremo transferring fewer reinforcements to Tenth Army as preparations for Greek war develop.
Croesus
July 1940: Tenth Army commences operations, occupies Sollum. This was the month originally slated for the advance. Balbo/Gariboldi keeps to this schedule.
August: Tenth Army occupies Sidi Barrani. TTL 'La Guerra di Rapido Corso' is in place and leads to a faster advance of Tenth Army.
September: First Battle of Mersa Matruh is inconclusive. 7th Armoured, lurking in the desert, falls on Tenth Army flank, leading to first tank battle. Mobile Group Maletti (mixed armoured division and mechanised infantry) makes a good account of itself and prevents 7th Armoured from reaching the sea. Gariboldi halts before reaching main British positions.
September: Second Battle of Mersa Matruh results in British withdrawal, although losses even between combatants. A set piece fight where Italian numbers are put to good effect. Further clash between 7th Armoured and Maletti MG an even contest, though Italians left in command of the field.
October: German General von Thoma tours combat area with view to possible contribution of panzer unit [as in OTL].
October: First Battle of El Alamein results in Italian defeat. Tenth Army is having supply problems in light of superior British expertise in desert raiding warfare. Maletti MG poorly disposed in battle, suffers significant loss. Italian assault comes to grief as a result of British artillery and inability of Italian AT guns vs British heavy tanks. Tenth Army withdraws to fixed positions.
November: Elements of 3rd Pz begin to arrive in combat area and constituted as 5th Light under Gen Streich.
November: Second El Alamein where British are defeated and retreat to Nile. 5th Light and Maletti MG penetrates British box system and attacks into rear, turning in behind main positions. 7th Armoured counterattacks and spoils further exploitation, taking substantial losses in process. First big 'bag' of British prisoners taken, together with materiel. A significant British defeat.
December: British holding forces on Nile pushed back by Tenth Army set piece battle, but bulk of remaining forces by now safely across Suez. RN assets removed to Red Sea. Italians finally gain air superiority. Cairo and Alexandria now firmly in Italian hands, although Tenth Army is in serious need of rest and refitting.
Notes.
1. One implication of Italian procurement of Fiat 3000 design is opportunity to retrofit captured French tanks following Battle of France. While Italian and French developments of base design take divergent paths, significant parts of chassis and running gear remain the same. When Maletti MG begins to wear down, Italian industry can obtain improved supply efficiency using French parts.
2. Another implication following on from the doctrinal changes detailed earlier is the non-implementation of the change from ternary to binary divisions (three regiments to two) by Gen Pariani 1938. Further to this increased, though not substantially, mechanisation of regular army infantry divisions occurs as the lessons of the 'less is more' approach are absorbed. This increases the operational flexibility of Italian forces; however this is mitigated by Commando Supremo transferring fewer reinforcements to Tenth Army as preparations for Greek war develop.
Croesus
Brief Note on Technical Matters
Armoured Cars. OTL they're not too bad. Not much change, though 'La Guerra di Rapido Corso' gives TTL better deployment.
Tanks. As previously noted, developed from Fiat 3000. More time spent on design innovation, more investment results in greater reliability, welding over riveting, upgunning.
Trucks. Basically more of them issued to mechanised divisions.
Assault Guns. The Semovente series benefits from increased investment.
Infantry Guns. Some development of the 47/32, otherwise as OTL.
Field artillery. 75/32, 75/18, 105/28 & 210/25 production advanced across all types, otherwise as OTL
Anti-Aircraft: 90/53 increased use in multi-purpose role, otherwise as OTL; 20/77 & 20/65 as OTL
Rifles. Carcano as OTL [thought for a long time about this one, in the end decided to keep it as is... *sigh*]
Machineguns. A lot more thought went in TTL; while the idiosyncratic features of Italian MG's are kept, issues such as rate of fire, jamming problems and manufacturing costs are mitigated.
Pistols/SMGs: As OTL.
Aircraft. Dont' want to go into much detail here. The airforce is second in line for the 'sudden advance' Libyan cash. They invest a lot more in their bomber fleet (all types) resulting in quantitative and qualitative benefits over OTL. Fighters don't miss out, though efficiency gains are found more through better needs analysis and improved focus on promising types. In TTL much of the air force is focused on Malta, although some promising signs are seen with tactical cooperation with the army.
Oh, and no jets.
Croesus
Armoured Cars. OTL they're not too bad. Not much change, though 'La Guerra di Rapido Corso' gives TTL better deployment.
Tanks. As previously noted, developed from Fiat 3000. More time spent on design innovation, more investment results in greater reliability, welding over riveting, upgunning.
Trucks. Basically more of them issued to mechanised divisions.
Assault Guns. The Semovente series benefits from increased investment.
Infantry Guns. Some development of the 47/32, otherwise as OTL.
Field artillery. 75/32, 75/18, 105/28 & 210/25 production advanced across all types, otherwise as OTL
Anti-Aircraft: 90/53 increased use in multi-purpose role, otherwise as OTL; 20/77 & 20/65 as OTL
Rifles. Carcano as OTL [thought for a long time about this one, in the end decided to keep it as is... *sigh*]
Machineguns. A lot more thought went in TTL; while the idiosyncratic features of Italian MG's are kept, issues such as rate of fire, jamming problems and manufacturing costs are mitigated.
Pistols/SMGs: As OTL.
Aircraft. Dont' want to go into much detail here. The airforce is second in line for the 'sudden advance' Libyan cash. They invest a lot more in their bomber fleet (all types) resulting in quantitative and qualitative benefits over OTL. Fighters don't miss out, though efficiency gains are found more through better needs analysis and improved focus on promising types. In TTL much of the air force is focused on Malta, although some promising signs are seen with tactical cooperation with the army.
Oh, and no jets.
Croesus
Abdul Hadi Pasha
Banned
You would have to attack Iraq through Syria - possible but complicated. And in my opinion not worth the effort - too many higher priorities. I would just better support the pro-Axis coup. Controlling Suez will make British supply to Iraq risky, as the Italians can strike into the Indian Ocean.
Abdul Hadi Pasha
Banned
It does strike me, though, that British catastrophes on this scale are going to seriously nail British prestige, and make colonial populations reevaluate their options. The British are going to have some very serious problems here, with a powerful Italian fleet able to strike both the Atlantic and Indian Ocean routes. That makes British control over India problematic.
Abdul Hadi Pasha
Banned
??? I'm confused. Total domination of the Mediterranean is not enough for you?
If they're smart then they head straight for Jerusalem, Baghdad, and Tehran, probably in that order. Taking Jerusalem can rally the Arab world to your side, Baghdad can threaten the Caucasus, and Tehran will cut off the link to the Russian supply lines. With Russia distracted, the Germans can consolidate in the southern theater and perhaps take Stalingrad, maybe Astrakhan. That alone will make the war go into later 1945 or 1946, especially if the Axis try for India.
To get the Italians to the Nile, you don't really need all that much.
*Axis take Malta or Gibralter
*Italy trains its commanders at German staff school
*Greece is left alone
*Aulinchek is killed before counteroffensive
*Remove ULTRA intelligence from Monty and he loses El Alamein
To get the Italians to the Nile, you don't really need all that much.
*Axis take Malta or Gibralter
*Italy trains its commanders at German staff school
*Greece is left alone
*Aulinchek is killed before counteroffensive
*Remove ULTRA intelligence from Monty and he loses El Alamein
Abdul Hadi Pasha
Banned
If the Axis can get Turkey in, Iraq is a pretty easy target. But we're not factoring Russia in here - all this is going to change the Soviet outlook and strategy. Turkey was effectively isolated from the Allies in OTL - this isn't too much different, and I would think the Russians would pull out all the stops to keep Turkey out of the Axis camp - which suits the Turks' inclinations.
Abdul Hadi Pasha
Banned
The object has to be to knock Britain out, fast. With the Med locked up, the priority has to be to bring Britain down. That doesn't mean conquering Britain, which I still think is pretty much impossible, but the British are going to have a hard time protecting sea routes against a strong fleet in Gibraltar. That basically leaves the British totally dependent upon North America.
Greece
Oct 1940. Italy attacks. Greece withdraws troops from Crete, replaced by small British force.
Nov. Italy driven back.
Dec. OKW set date March 1941 for invasion of Greece.
Jan 1941. Greece requests British assistance but only offered small force, which is declined.
Feb. Greece now accepts token force, identified as Australian reinforced Brigade [yeah, good luck mate].
Mar. Italy counterattacks, is driven back. Germans begin massing in Bulgaria. Bulgaria takes up position on frontier. Australians deploy. Yugoslav coup d'etat forces planning changes on German side.
Apr. British reinforced brigade arrives to back up Australians. German invasion commences, develops rapidly. Greek forces encircled, surrender. Athens taken. Commonwealth forces evacuated to Crete, though there are significant losses.
May. Italians start occupation. British forces in Crete isolated, island falls to Students airborne troops who suffer casualties but retain their combat capacity.
Notes.
1. There are five months to account for in Tenth Army operational area between the taking of the Nile/Suez line and the fall of Greece. Both OKW and Commando Supremo will want Tenth Army plus the 'junior' DAK under Streich to be active and tie down British forces, which needs to be considered against issues of capability and continued threat of RN.
The geo-political impact of Vichy territories in Lebanon-Syria and Madagascar becomes increasingly prominent. There is also the issue of IEA to clear up. The next five months of Tenth Army, IEA and the impact of Vichy will be the subject of my next main post.
2. Greece is taken with OTL forces making for no additional unit efficiencies, and as it was fast in OTL, there are no additional time efficiencies for Barbarossa; neither are there additional command efficiencies to obtain with Rommels presence in the campaign.
3. There are fewer British resources in the campaign, so the amount of prisoners and material captured are not significantly greater. There is a significant difference in that the German airborne forces remain intact for future deployment. Together with the unit efficiency of not having to deploy 21 Pz to DAK, we can now say that the increased performance of Tenth Army, irrespective of what it does in the next five months, mitigates the dilution of German force that so plagued it's later wartime operations.
Further to Posts.
Abdul Hadi Pasha:
1. points to difficulties of Iraq invasion might need to go through Syria.
2. notes impact of Italy controlling the Suez in first instance, irrespective of land offensive.
3. notes serious implications for British colonial structure.
4. notes Turkish options vis a vis Allies vs Axis.
M79:
1. looks at downstream implications around Palestine, Iraq, Iran & Russia.
2. notes other points that may be butterflied out by development of TTL.
I'm excited about the Indian Ocean, Vichy and Turkish aspects to all this. Need to keep plugging away consistently and not avoid getting ahead of ourselves though; don't want to fall ill with Faelins 'victory disease'.
Croesus
Oct 1940. Italy attacks. Greece withdraws troops from Crete, replaced by small British force.
Nov. Italy driven back.
Dec. OKW set date March 1941 for invasion of Greece.
Jan 1941. Greece requests British assistance but only offered small force, which is declined.
Feb. Greece now accepts token force, identified as Australian reinforced Brigade [yeah, good luck mate].
Mar. Italy counterattacks, is driven back. Germans begin massing in Bulgaria. Bulgaria takes up position on frontier. Australians deploy. Yugoslav coup d'etat forces planning changes on German side.
Apr. British reinforced brigade arrives to back up Australians. German invasion commences, develops rapidly. Greek forces encircled, surrender. Athens taken. Commonwealth forces evacuated to Crete, though there are significant losses.
May. Italians start occupation. British forces in Crete isolated, island falls to Students airborne troops who suffer casualties but retain their combat capacity.
Notes.
1. There are five months to account for in Tenth Army operational area between the taking of the Nile/Suez line and the fall of Greece. Both OKW and Commando Supremo will want Tenth Army plus the 'junior' DAK under Streich to be active and tie down British forces, which needs to be considered against issues of capability and continued threat of RN.
The geo-political impact of Vichy territories in Lebanon-Syria and Madagascar becomes increasingly prominent. There is also the issue of IEA to clear up. The next five months of Tenth Army, IEA and the impact of Vichy will be the subject of my next main post.
2. Greece is taken with OTL forces making for no additional unit efficiencies, and as it was fast in OTL, there are no additional time efficiencies for Barbarossa; neither are there additional command efficiencies to obtain with Rommels presence in the campaign.
3. There are fewer British resources in the campaign, so the amount of prisoners and material captured are not significantly greater. There is a significant difference in that the German airborne forces remain intact for future deployment. Together with the unit efficiency of not having to deploy 21 Pz to DAK, we can now say that the increased performance of Tenth Army, irrespective of what it does in the next five months, mitigates the dilution of German force that so plagued it's later wartime operations.
Further to Posts.
Abdul Hadi Pasha:
1. points to difficulties of Iraq invasion might need to go through Syria.
2. notes impact of Italy controlling the Suez in first instance, irrespective of land offensive.
3. notes serious implications for British colonial structure.
4. notes Turkish options vis a vis Allies vs Axis.
M79:
1. looks at downstream implications around Palestine, Iraq, Iran & Russia.
2. notes other points that may be butterflied out by development of TTL.
I'm excited about the Indian Ocean, Vichy and Turkish aspects to all this. Need to keep plugging away consistently and not avoid getting ahead of ourselves though; don't want to fall ill with Faelins 'victory disease'.
Croesus
zarkov
Banned
Well I think that we need to look at this from a different perspective. First of all we can see the Italian pushin into The Middle East. Now onw way or another they will keep pushing foward. Evanually they might eject the Vritish out of Palestine and then try to help the Iraqi in their fight against the British.
Now with that in mind, we have to ask what is Turkey doing to do in that situtation ? Will she remain neutral or will she let the Axis uses her border to transport troops into the Soviet Union. Aussing that Hilter attacs the Soivet Union from May-July 1941.
The second question is what effect will the Italians breaking out into the Middle-East have on therest of the world. What will Japan do, knowing the British are falling apart in the Middle East.
What about the Aremicans. Will they care to accerlate their plans for war.
How will the USSR react to a weakened UK and a danger of an offensive through the Caucasus assuming of course Germant does declare war on the Soivet Union.
Finally will Franco finally think it's about time to jump on the British in GlBilartir.
Comments ?
Now with that in mind, we have to ask what is Turkey doing to do in that situtation ? Will she remain neutral or will she let the Axis uses her border to transport troops into the Soviet Union. Aussing that Hilter attacs the Soivet Union from May-July 1941.
The second question is what effect will the Italians breaking out into the Middle-East have on therest of the world. What will Japan do, knowing the British are falling apart in the Middle East.
What about the Aremicans. Will they care to accerlate their plans for war.
How will the USSR react to a weakened UK and a danger of an offensive through the Caucasus assuming of course Germant does declare war on the Soivet Union.
Finally will Franco finally think it's about time to jump on the British in GlBilartir.
Comments ?
Invading Greece in OTL was abismally stupid: no strategic target, no possible benefit in terms of resources, maybe just some ego boosting to compensate the huge disappointment in the Lybian theatre.
Going through the same moves ITTL would be criminally insane: the resources squandered in Greece can be used much more effectively in the Middle East, and to shore up the front in AOI: the Black Shirts divisions can be more effectively used as rear-echelons troops and to secure supply routes in Egypt and Sudan.
The Regia Marina would not be in a position to carry out major operations in the Indian ocean due to the lack of aircraft carriers (another of Mussolini's brainstormings). Going out in force without air cover would be suicidal. This does not preclude the opportunity to send out U-boats and cruisers to harass the merchant ships, but forget about anything more fancy (and even these limited operations are predicated on the assumption that Suez can become again operational pretty quickly). The first Italian aircraft carrier is at least 2 years away (more likely 30 to 36 months before it can be operational), and the time lag cannot be compressed. Better to use the existing capital ships to protect the entrance to the Mediterranean, to interdict any kind of TTL Operation Torch and to throttle the trade from South America to UK.
It should not be impossible to convince Vichy France to accept Italo-German troops in Syria, where they can contribute to mop up the remaining British units in Palestine, and pose a significant threat to Iraq (even more interesting would be the opportunity to provide arms and air cover to Iraqi insurgents).
The most important thing is to sweet-talk (or strong-arm, if needed) Turkey into joining the axis: Cyprus, Mosul, chunks of Caucasus should be already a good starting point to bargain. Hell, if it were necessary I'd not have any problem in promising even coastal Thrace and Salonika.
Going through the same moves ITTL would be criminally insane: the resources squandered in Greece can be used much more effectively in the Middle East, and to shore up the front in AOI: the Black Shirts divisions can be more effectively used as rear-echelons troops and to secure supply routes in Egypt and Sudan.
The Regia Marina would not be in a position to carry out major operations in the Indian ocean due to the lack of aircraft carriers (another of Mussolini's brainstormings). Going out in force without air cover would be suicidal. This does not preclude the opportunity to send out U-boats and cruisers to harass the merchant ships, but forget about anything more fancy (and even these limited operations are predicated on the assumption that Suez can become again operational pretty quickly). The first Italian aircraft carrier is at least 2 years away (more likely 30 to 36 months before it can be operational), and the time lag cannot be compressed. Better to use the existing capital ships to protect the entrance to the Mediterranean, to interdict any kind of TTL Operation Torch and to throttle the trade from South America to UK.
It should not be impossible to convince Vichy France to accept Italo-German troops in Syria, where they can contribute to mop up the remaining British units in Palestine, and pose a significant threat to Iraq (even more interesting would be the opportunity to provide arms and air cover to Iraqi insurgents).
The most important thing is to sweet-talk (or strong-arm, if needed) Turkey into joining the axis: Cyprus, Mosul, chunks of Caucasus should be already a good starting point to bargain. Hell, if it were necessary I'd not have any problem in promising even coastal Thrace and Salonika.
Abdul Hadi Pasha
Banned
I don't agree. The British do not have carrier resources available to seriously contest an Italian advance into the Indian Ocean, and what they have is not going to be of much use against a large and modern fleet. I don't see how this is "suicidal". Using interior lines, raids on both ends of the Med can throw the RN badly off balance, and I don't see how the British are going to have the military capacity to launch anything like Torch. If the US enters the war, then I would agree, the Axis needs to get focused - but in the time we're talking about, it's Italy and Germany vs the British.
At this stage I have strong doubts that we'll see any Italian penetration of the Middle East;
1. Tenth Army needs time for rest and refitting;
2. it's reinforcement flow has been constricted by the setbacks in Greece, not to mention the impending requirements for Barbarossa;
3. IEA is threatened by at least one regular British/Commonwealth Division (1st SA) plus additional Brigade elements from Kenya, with reinforcing elements of 2nd SA arriving;
4. the Sealion threat is diminishing, which frees up 2nd NZ & 50th Northumbrian, while 9th Australian also becomes available during the first half of 1941;
Tenth Army is basically going to have to conduct an assault crossing of the Suez Canal against 4th Indian, 5th Indian, 6th Australian and 7th Armoured operating (assuming that 1st Cavalry and 7th Australian are watching the Vichy in Syria/Lebanon) and without local naval supremacy (though at least they have air supremacy, though that remains contestable).
To my mind operations into Sudan aimed at linking up with IEA, establishing strong defensive positions along the Canal, rebuilding Alexandria's port facilities (almost certainly seriously impacted during the British withdrawal), expanding airfield capacity and taking measures against the open southern flank are simply more pressing needs.
Croesus
No one has come out with a reasonable estimate of Italian losses in the Mediterranean: IMO, it's quite unlikely that the Malta and Gibraltar can be taken, and the Alexandria fleet evicted from Mediterranean, without any loss of capital ships.
However, the issue is slightly different: what is Regia Marina aiming to get from the Indian ocean? Disrupting British commerce is a given; threatening serious attacks against India or Ceylon is clearly impossible, same as it is impossible to force an engagement with British capital ships; shelling Zanzibar is just a pinprick, without any value outside of propaganda. I would submit that the main scope of Italian navy in the Indian ocean would be to harass B ritish trade: this can be easily carried out by cruisers and U-boats based in AOI. Capital ships would not be required. All of this can be carried out provided that Suez is not out of commission for a significant period of time.
Aden can be invested by Arab irregulars, supported by available Italian units and airplanes. Again it does not change the appraisal of war: the only real strategic value would be in cutting off another pillar of the empire after malta, Suez and Gibraltar, with possible impact on British morale. Anyone expecting more than that is playing Risiko, not waging a war.
The capital ships are required in Gibraltar, to carry out a number of strategic tasks. I fail to see why this is so hard to understand: real war is not a strategic game, and available resources must be used to further real strategic needs.
Reasonable, with the exception of greece that should not happen in TTL.
R&R and re-establishing suitable logistic dumps will take 6+ months. Therefore I postulated in earlier posts that Italians cannot move beyond Suez before late summer 1941