What if the Israelis did not seize Golan Heights in the June 1967 war?

raharris1973

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Israeli-Syrian fighting was restricted to artillery duels and air combat during the early hours/days of the June 1967 "6-Day" War of OTL. The Syrians never attempted a a ground offensive.

The Israelis did not commit to a northern offensive to seize the Golan until operations in Sinai and the West Bank were basically complete.

Some in the Israeli high command thought seizing the Golan would be unfeasible as the international community was pushing for an end to hostilities and the Soviet Union would be unhappy with its Syrian ally being crushed. Moshe Dayan, for example, was quoted as saying, "we have swallowed two canaries [Sinai and West Bank], I think we would choke on a third".

What is the Israeli leadership as a whole took counsel of Moshe Dayan's concerns and agreed to a cease-fire without an invasion of the Golan Heights first?

What does that do to the War of Attrition through 1970, the Palestinian-Syrian-Jordanian triangle that led to Black September 1970, the Yom Kippur War of 1973 (if that even happens in a recognizable way), Syrian internal politics and the later history (politics and wars) of Lebanon?
 
If they don't take the Golan in '67, they get utterly smashed come 1973; it was only a stalwart Israeli defense in the early phases of the attack along the terrain of the Heights that prevented the Syrians from breaking out into Israel itself. Without the protection the heights afforded, the Syrians will be inside Israel from Day 1, and from there the IDF is, to be blunt, screwed.
 

raharris1973

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are the syrians even doing an invasion in 1973?

in otl sadat was able to convince them to join in a real
ground attack because both had territory they wanted back and the egyptians and syrians knew the each had a partner with parallel interests.

without the urgency of trying to win back territorry, Damascus may well say "hey, what is the hurry?" when the Egyptians propose a joint attack. 1960s Syria seemed perfectly happy to rely on Palestinian raids and artilery duels to harass Israel rather than risk a ground invasion.
 
lots of trouble for Israel later... the Heights allowed Syrian artillery to hit Israeli territory directly. If the Syrians still have them, then the Israelis certainly won't build much of anything civilian in artillery range. If there is a 73 war, it won't run much like the one in OTL... if the Israelis see the Syrians massing on the Heights, they are liable to strike first...
 

raharris1973

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If they didn't grab them in '67, there would have been another War sooner than '73

Because the Israelis will feel a new for a special war just for this purpose? Or because Egypt and Syria would reach consensus to attack faster than OTL, because attacking from the Heights requires less preparation than attacking into the Heights?

Alright, so the responses seem to be the Israelis had to take the Heights, were going take the Heights, and would have been screwed if a later round came before they took they Heights.

But seriously, I'm not kidding, this what if is a thing.

From wiki:

"Israelis debate whether the Golan Heights should be attacked
On June 7 and 8, the Israeli leadership debated about whether to attack the Golan Heights as well. Syria had supported pre-war raids that had helped raise tensions and had routinely shelled Israel from the Heights, so some Israeli leaders wanted to see Syria punished.[105] Military opinion was that the attack would be extremely costly, since it would entail an uphill battle against a strongly fortified enemy. The western side of the Golan Heights consists of a rock escarpment that rises 500 meters (1,700 ft) from the Sea of Galilee and the Jordan River, and then flattens to a gently sloping plateau. Dayan opposed the operation bitterly at first, believing such an undertaking would result in losses of 30,000 and might trigger Soviet intervention. Prime Minister Eshkol, on the other hand, was more open to the possibility, as was the head of the Northern Command, David Elazar, whose unbridled enthusiasm for and confidence in the operation may have eroded Dayan's reluctance."


Just sayin'​
 
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