What if? The Iron Curtain on the Bug river

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Map of the World at 1950
(Original map created by: @Crazy Boris )
Point of Divergence: Stronger German defence on the Eastern Front during 1943-1945 period leads to slower Soviet advance.

Major differences:

  • Divided Germany - ATL Poland is a frontier country against the Eastern Bloc - not West Germany. Germany is occupied by the single bloc - Great Britain, France, United States and Poland, with Soviets plundering as much industry and money they can take with them. France and Poland are anti-German here, with British having memories of the Blitz and constant German resurgences (unification wars of 1860s, World War I, World War III). Domination of nationalist SPD led by Kurt Schumacher, leads to the threat of rearmament and quick recovery. To stop that, French and Polish governments support local separatisms.
    • Lusatia is formed by the Sorbs - economically linked to France, Poland and Czechoslovakia.
    • Bavaria
    • Swabia
    • Protectorate of Saar is a French puppet state, with a probability of future annexation. Economies of both countries are unified.
    • Nordrhein Territory is an international territory governed by the Allied Occupation Authority (US, French, British and Soviets). Intended to be returned to German state after ten years.
    • Protectorate of Austrasia - French puppet state. Austrasian and French economies are unified.
  • Western-allied Poland - Instead of relying on the West Germany, Western Powers supports Poland as a frontier state against communism. Reforms in economy, administration and education, heavy subsidies as part of the Marshall Plan are used to rebuild country after war. Population transfers from the Soviet Union increases number of inhabitants.
  • Romania is a Marxist state ruled as a Soviet puppet state. Production of oil is used to fund economical development of the state.
  • Finland is a neutral country with a pro-Soviet left-wing government.
  • Hungary is transformed into Republic ruled by the centre-right coalition.
  • Yugoslavia is a republic. Marshal Josip Broz Tito rules as the President with a socialist-centre coalition dominating the political landscape of the country. Land, educational and economic reforms are performed to uplift Yugoslavia. Due to Tito's anti-Soviet stance, he is supported by the United States.
  • Albania is a kingdom ruled by Zog who wants to modernize his country.
  • Bulgaria is a kingdom ruled by the centre-right, pro-US coalition.
  • Baltic states:
    • Germans supported Baltic independence longer than OTL.
    • Lithuania declared independence and neutrality (both supported by Germans to weaken Soviet advances) and put a resistance against Red Army.
    • As a result, Lithuanian and Byelorussian SSRs were joined into the Lithuanian-Byelorussian SSR after war.

Situation of 1950:

  • Mao have just won a Chinese Civil War - after failure to gain Central European satellite states, Stalin became more inclined to advance in Asia and enlarged his aid to Chinese communists.
  • North Korea is preparing for a war against South Korea. This time however, Stalin and Mao are more cautious and supply Koreans with even more weapons, aircraft and manpower.
  • Second Red Scare in the US following detonation of a Soviet nuclear bomb is smaller than OTL.
 
Demographics of Lithuania-Byelorussia
1959:

  • Belarusians: 6,562,561 (60.9%)
  • Lithuanians: 1,851,234 (17.2%)
  • Polish: 1,091,121 (10.1%)
  • Russians: 890,093 (8.3%)
  • Jews: 172,361 (1.6%)
  • Ukrainians: 151,119 (1.4%)
  • Others (below 10,000): 53,091 (0.5%)
Total: 10,771,580

1970:

  • Belarusians: 60.8%
  • Lithuanians: 17.1%
  • Polish: 10.6%
  • Russians: 8.5%
  • Jews: 1.6%
  • Ukrainians: 1.0%
  • Other - 0.4%

Total: 12,408,860

1989:

  • Belarusians: 60.8%
  • Lithuanians: 16.9%
  • Polish: 11%
  • Russians: 9.4%
  • Jews: 0.9%
  • Ukrainians: 0.6%
  • Other - 0.3%


Total: 14,557,601
 
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World War II divergences
1943

July - Red Army attacks Wehrmacht during Kursk offensive. Soviet forces mishandle the offensive and receives massive casualties during attacks against well-defended positions. While victorious, Stalin and his generals are forced to be more cautious in future.

September - Allied invasion of Italian Mainland begins. Benito Mussolini is killed during his escape attempt. Armistice is signed between new Italian government and the western powers. Due to lacks in German armies on the peninsula and 82nd Airborne Division (American) landing in Rome, Germans are less successful than OTL and fail to seize Rome (but inflict big casualties on civillians and completely destroys several historical areas including Vatican City, uniting Italians against Germans). As a result, Allied forces are capable of making greater gains than OTL, while Italian resistance is stronger.

1944

June - Western Allies successfuly land in Normandy.
August - Liberation paris turns badly when German forces begin to destroy the city (similar to OTL Warsaw). Dwight D. Eisenhower dies in a chemical attack perpetrated by SS forces (as a response, United States' Air Forces use chemical weapons against the city of Essen). George Patton takes over seat of the Supreme Commander of Allied Forces in Germany (no slapping incident).
September - Operation Market Garden is successful. Allies cross the Rhine in a rapid advance.

1945

February - Allied forces defeat German counteroffensive and seizes Potsdam. Chancellor Hermann Goering surrenders to General Patton.
August - Southern California is attacked by biological weapons during Operation Cherry Blossoms at Night (August 5). Nuclear bomb over Hiroshima explodes (August 6). Nuclear bomb over Nagasaki fails to explode and is recovered by the Japanese Army. In the same day, Red Army crosses into Manchuria and engages Imperial japanese Army. As immediate result to the Cherry Blossoms at Night, American air forces dropped anthrax on the Home Islands.
September - four nuclear bombs are dropped over Japan - in Yokohama, Kokura, Kyoto and Osaka (September 19). Japanese government surrenders a day later.
 
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kernals12

Banned
The US would not have needed to wait until it had more atomic bombs to retaliate for germ warfare on California. We had plenty of poison gas that could've been sprayed across Japan just days after Cherry Blossoms.
 

nbcman

Donor
And the US production of nuclear devices wouldn't be able to deliver 6 weapons during September 1945. General Groves at the end of July 1945 per this memo was expecting 3-4 bombs in September and 3-4 bombs in October (overall 7 bombs in September - October). November production was to be 5 devices and December production was to be 7. There was an additional bomb casing on Tinian in August 1945 but the plutonium core wasn't going to be shipped there until 15 August.

Why didn't the Soviets attack Manchuria in August or September 1945 - or even earlier since the war in the ETO ended about 3 months earlier than OTL?
 
Why didn't the Soviets attack Manchuria in August or September 1945 - or even earlier since the war in the ETO ended about 3 months earlier than OTL?

I forgot to add that. Soviets attack after failed bombing of Nagasaki and made similar advances to OTL.

The US would not have needed to wait until it had more atomic bombs to retaliate for germ warfare on California. We had plenty of poison gas that could've been sprayed across Japan just days after Cherry Blossoms.

Good idea.
 
Polish post-war governments
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Stanisław Mikołajczyk
(July 18, 1901 - December 13, 1966)

Prime Minister of the Polish goverment in exile
(July 14, 1943 - February 9, 1945)

Chairman of the Polish Provisional Government
(February 9, 1945 - March 14, 1946)

Prime Minister of Poland
(March 14, 1946 - March 18, 1954)
Achievements:

  • Imposition of the Polish occupational zone in Germany. (1945)
  • Acquisition of East Prussia, Pomerania and Silesia. (1945)
  • Securing war reparations payment for Poland from Germany. (1946)
  • Membership in the United Nations. (1946)
  • Creation of national, compulsory education system. (1946)
    • 8 years of basic education.
    • 5 years of high technical education/4 years of high school/3 years of basix technical education.
    • 3,5/5/9 years of Technical University/University.
  • Creation of national healthcare system - it was hampered by lack of funds and overall destruction of Polish nation following the World War II - but it had slowly been expanded by successive governments of 1950s and 1960s. (1946)
  • Land Reform - 2 million hectares are divided and distributed to farmers. (1946-1951)
  • Participation in the European Recovery Program. (1947)
  • Membership in NATO. (1949)
  • Economic plans drafted by the Central Bureau of Planning and enacted by Mikołajczyk:
    • I Four-Years' Plan (1947-1950)
      • Rise of Gross National Income by 76% (OTL 53%).
    • II Four-Years' Plan (1951-1954)
      • Increase in a foreign trade.
      • Acceleration of urbanization.
      • Rise of industrial output (mainly in a light industry).
  • Creation of Warsaw Metro. (1953)

Elections:

  • Presidential:
    • 1946
      • Tomasz Arciszewski - Polish Socialist Party (coalition with Polish People's Party) (31%) (61%)
      • Jędrzej Giertych - National Party (26%) (39%)
      • Stanisław Michałowski - Democratic Party (22%)
      • Władysław Gomułka - Polish Workers' Party - (11%)
      • Bolesław Piasecki - National Radical Camp (10%)
    • 1951
      • Tomasz Arciszewski - Polish Socialist Party (coalition with Polish People's Party) (44%) (55%)
      • Stanisław Michałowski - Democratic Party (31%) (45%)
      • Jędrzej Giertych - National Party (12%)
      • Władysław Gomułka - Polish Workers' Party - (7%)
      • Bolesław Piasecki - National Radical Camp (6%)
  • Parliamentarian:
    • 1946
      • Senate (total seats: 100):
        • Polish Socialist Party - 28 seats
        • National Party - 27 seats
        • Polish People's Party - 23 seats
        • Democratic Party - 22 seats
      • Sejm (total seats: 480):
        • Polish Socialist Party - 123 seats
        • Polish People's Party - 118 seats
        • Democratic Party - 91 seats
        • National Party - 86 seats
        • Polish Workers' Party - 29 seats
        • National Radical Camp - 16 seats
        • Labour Party - 6 seats
        • Catholic Club - 5 seats
        • Silesian Party - 4 seats
        • Union for Economic Reconstruction - 1 seat
        • Centre Party - 1 seat
    • 1950
      • Senate (total seats: 100):
        • Polish Socialist Party - 40 seats
        • Democratic Party - 25 seats
        • Polish People's Party - 23 seats
        • National Party - 12 seats
      • Sejm (total seats: 500):
        • Polish Socialist Party - 133 seats
        • Polish People's Party - 118 seats
        • Democratic Party - 91 seats
        • National Party - 51 seats
        • Home Army Association - 37 seats
        • Polish Workers' Party - 26 seats
        • National Radical Camp - 19 seats
        • Labour Party - 12 seats
        • Catholic Club - 5 seats
        • Silesian Party - 4 seats
        • Centre Party - 3 seats
        • Union for Economic Reconstruction - 1 seat
        • Agrarian Union for Poland - 1 seats

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Józef Cyrankiewicz
(April 23, 1911 - January 20, 1989)

Prime Minister of Poland
(March 18, 1954 - March 17, 1958)
Achievements:

  • Development of Polish coal and steel industry.
  • Formation of Central European Economic Assistance Union with Czechoslovakia and Hungary. (1956)
  • Normalization of relationships with the Soviet Union (1957)
  • III Four-Years' Plan (1955-1958):
    • Expansion of coal and steel production.
    • Expansion of state-funded higher education:
      • Thaddeus Kosciuszko's University of Technology in Krakow. (1955)
      • Poznan University of Technology. (1955)
      • Częstochowa University of Technology. (1956)
      • Kielce University of Technology. (1958)
      • Rzeszów University of Technology (1958)
    • Development of civillian nuclear technology.
      • Polish-American project to build three atomic power plants in Poland.

Elections:

  • Presidential:
    • 1956
      • Józef Haller - Independent/Home Army Association - 29% (53%)
      • Zygmunt Zaremba - Polish Socialist Party - 25% (47%)
      • Stefan Ignar - United People's Party - 21%
      • Jan Wende - Democratic Party - 20%
      • Jędrzej Giertych - National Party - 5%
  • Parliamentarian:
    • Senate (100 seats):
      • Polish Socialist Party - 40 seats
      • Democratic Party - 23 seats
      • Home Army Association - 17 seats
      • Polish People's Party - 11 seats
      • United People's Party - 9 seats
    • Sejm (500 seats):
      • Polish Socialist Party - 128 seats
      • Democratic Party - 89 seats
      • Home Army Association - 54 seats
      • Polish People's Party - 51 seats
      • United People's Party - 49 seats
      • National Party - 48 seats
      • National Radical Camp - 22 seats
      • Polish Socialist Party (Democratic Revolution) - 21 seats
      • Polish Workers' Party - 19 seats
      • Labour Party - 14 seats
      • Christian Union - 5 seats
      • Silesian Party - 3 seats
      • Union for Economic Reconstruction - 2 seats
      • Centre Party - 2 seats
      • Neutrality Alliance - 1 seats
      • Self-Defence Forces - 1 seat
      • Union of Economical Freedom - 1 seat
      • Ruling coalition: Polish Socialist Party, Home Army Association, Polish People's Party, Labour Party, Silesian Party, Self-Defence Forces (Total: 251 seats)
 
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