For starters, there would be no alternatehistory.com (obviously)... But I believe that the system which we call the Internet was NOT an inevitability. It was in fact a product of the Cold War era. Essentially, the Internet is a decentralized distributed computer network, whereas a more natural design would be a highly centralized network. This concept was suggested by Paul Baran who also invented packet switching (along with Donald Davies and later Leonard Kleinrock). The initial reason for the invention of such a computer network (known as ARPANET from its inception in 1969) was as a defense against nuclear war. Should Soviet nuclear strikes hit major American cities, the logical place for central nodes, this would sever military communications. A distributed-decentralized computer network would survive the loss of nodes however. ARPANET, which grew in the 1970's, was an experimental project in and of itself, but through its connections of universities (most Arpanet nodes were at major universities), it served a more civillian role. ARPANET (along with MILNET, BITNET, and NSFNET) eventually became the Internet and the development of the World Wide Web system from 1988-1991 enabled the Internet to attain popularity. Consider a world where ARPANET was never invented. A world without Internet, E-mail, USENET, WWW, IM, etc. Would the PC even exist (as we know it)? (Remember, the Internet is probably the "killer ap" of personal computers.)
1957- The year which will be infamously known as the International Geophysical Year. Major powers discuss launching satellites into orbit, chiefly the United States and the Soviet Union. The majority of the Soviet leadership oppose investing in space exploration, pointing out the numerous economic difficulties on the planetary surface. Sergey Korolyov, chief engineer of the Sputnik program in the OTL, is ridiculed in this scenario and he dies less than a decade later in relative obscurity.
1958- As a result, since Sputnik was never launched, the United States Department of Defense never founded the Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA), which would have later been known as DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency). Additionally, the nonexistence of the Sputnik Program would considerably postpone the Space Race, but that is another story. In the OTL, ARPA was the leading organization to research and develop Internet technologies.
April 1958- Paul Baran, an engineering student at Drexel University, recieves job offers from International Business Machines (IBM).
1959- After graduating, Baran decides it would be much wiser to work for IBM and recieve a much higher salary, than working at measly little RAND Corporation, even if he would have more research freedom at RAND. Being more conservative in their research, IBM would have Paul Baran researching improvements in hardware and software designs rather than computer networking.
1960- Donald Davies, co-inventor of packet switching dies in a car crash. Result: Packet switching is not invented.
1969- Presumably an uneventful* year. ARPANET is never built (though it was launched this date on the OTL) as Paul Baran's theses on decentralised and distributed computer networking were never published, packet switching was not (yet at least) invented, and no active Department of Defense (DoD) research and development agencies existed. *(Remember that 1969 is remembered by Americans as the year of the moon landing. Considering that Sputnik never takes off on this timeline, the space race, if it ever occurs, would be delayed, perhaps the USA would initially lead space exploration. In either case, it is not as likely that the Apollo lunar expedition would occur on this ATL, at this date.)
1960's-70's:
1965- Gordon Moore writes about the exponential increase in computing power with an inversely related change in size of integrated circuits. This thesis is known as Moore's Law.
1968- Moore founds Intel Corporation.
1970's- This decade is marked by accelerating development of integrated circuitry in computers, calculators, and other electronic devices. Much of this R&D is driven by competition between IBM and Intel.
1976- Steve Wozniak and Steve Jobs found Apple Computer.
1980's- Due to the accelerated growth in this altered timeline of integrated circuit technology, and further fine tuning in input and output devices including monitors, compact discs, and printers, the personal computer once a promising invention, fades into obseletion. Personal computers still exist, but by the mid-90's become increasingly rare. Instead by the late 90's/early 2000's, in this altered timeline computing devices the size of a large wallet rival OTL PC's in power, memory capacity, and speed. As such general-purpose PC's are replaced by application-specific devices from the mid-80's onward. Examples include cellular phones, digital fax machines, electronic organizers, word-processing machines (essentially a laptop-shaped device with built-in laser printer), multi-purpose digital cameras, information terminals, videogame consoles (think Playstation or XBox), and all manner of entertainment systems and sufficient stand-alone studio recording equipment. The closest equivalent to OTL PC's would be workstations in some office stations and CAD systems used in scientific research and industry as well as graphic arts and design. Essentially, the modern OTL PC has reduced to little more than a portal to the Internet. In this timeline however, the gap might widen between supercomputers and minicomputers...
1988-1991- Ending of the Cold War. The era of Mutually Assured Destruction has come to an end. The Soviet Union dissolved, the Berlin Wall fell, the Iron Curtain fell. At this time the only Communist country left is Cuba. On the OTL this time period was also known for the development of the World Wide Web, but if the technological prerequisites to the Internet were postponed to 1990, then it could be expected that the internet as we know it would never be invented.
2000's- Given the lack of an Internet, the outsourcing of jobs to India would be nonexistent or at least not as significant, but then considering that American monopoly on the Internet until the 1990's provided American computer technology a head start, in this timeline, Japan and subsequently Korea would have caught up long ago, possibly even surpassing American technology earlier on in such fields. As a result Silicon Valley would pale in comparison to Tokyo or Seoul. (Although this is not too different from the OTL!)
2004-2008- By now, due to lack of research and development on networks, decades of accelerated research and development in computer power, capacity, and speed on this altered timeline, compared to the OTL would have arrived near the limit of the integrated circuit (remember Moore's Law) and so, physicists would be interested in engineering alternative means of computing (i.e. nanodrive and quantum computing as opposed to silicon-based circiuts). Also, computer scientists would be ever closer to developing artificial intelligence.
===============================================
In conclusion, I make the following predictions for this altered timeline:
* In lieu of research on computer networking, more research would be devoted towards improving computers themselves, perhaps prompting completely different unforseen revolutions in computer science.
* Inventions involving optical technology may also progress faster, resulting in the inventions of compact discs, laser discs, DVD, and laser printers occuring over a decade earlier than on the OTL. As such, 8-tracks and certainly, audiocassete tapes (both of which are often considered technological steps down from vinyl records) would presumably never exist. Similarly, research improving television and monitor displays may be faster resulting in earlier advances in LCD and plasma screens and fiber optics technology may still be invented, though probably after an initial delay because computer networking largely created the demand for optical fibers.
* The fascimile machine, often thought of as a dinosaur in the workplace, would become more prominent, never falling into its OTL obscolete status. In fact upgrades such as digital fascimile (DigiFax) would increase its popularity. Without Arpanet and subsequent networks, e-mail would never take off.
* The invention of cellular phones (as we know them) may experience a delay, but once started they would grow even faster than one can imagine.
* Presumably computer networks of some form would eventually be invented, but these would in no way resemble the Internet. Soon enough modems, packet switching (or a related method), and time-sharing would be developed, but the computer networks which would evolve from these technologies would presumably be very different. Consider that the general trend in the evolution and development of the computer network was top-down; first a proto-internet (ARPANET), then smaller intranets, then finally ethernet. From wide-area networks (WAN) to local-area networks (LAN). In this TL, computer networks would initially begin as local connections between computers within a building (ethernets) and local area networks, followed by wide area networks (what we now call intranets). If Arpanet never existed and its technological prerequisites postponed until after the Cold War, the closest we would likely have to an Internet would be a series of localized, highly centralized "intranets" connected to other nearby intranets with modem-like connections. These would not be nearly as unified (being largely private and corporatized) or international as the Internet. For instance, very few of such networks would cross borders. In whatever case, PC's would be far less prolific in this timeline, thus limiting the accessibility of such networks. Instead private civilians would be more connected through centralized digital phone networks.
* Satelite technology, another prerequisite of the growth of the Internet would also likely experience developmental delays. (Remember in this TL Sputnik was never launched, leaving a huge effect on the Space Race).
* Bill Gates, would still likely be a millionaire, though most likely not a billionaire. Apple Computer became famous in OTL for the Ipod, and in this TL, PC's would not compete well with more portable devices. Microsoft software would not have the success in a world where personal computers are not as relevant, and Microsoft would be seen as a nerdy company catering to business, rather than a hip and trendy company, such as Apple. Then again, Gates might develop such devices as the XBox and software such as Microsoft Word for word processors.
* Tom Anderson, infamously known as the man behind MySpace would be a complete loser without the Internet. I guarantee you. Similarly, the guy behind Ebaum's World (I forgot his name) would fade into obscurity, probably remaining a college dropout working for his father rather than a millionaire. James "Jimbo" Wales of Wikipedia fame would be unknown except maybe in Las Vegas or Amsterdam, wherever the adult entertainment industry takes him. (Wikipedia was founded by a pornographer.)
* The youth culture of the developed nations would be very different. There would be no difference in the 60's and 70's, a neglible one from 1978-1984, and a considerable difference in the 80's and early 90's. From the mid-late 90's to today, much youth and pop culture was deeply ingrained with cyber culture. The Internet as a medium has shaped "Generation X" and subsequent generations in nearly every way. By 1996-2006 on the altered TL, the pop culture would seem almost unrecognizable compared to the OTL.
* Some bad things: For one, the Terminator trilogy may never be produced. Compare Hal, the antagonistic AI in 2001: A Space Odyssey (1969, when Arpanet started and few people knew about such networks) with Skynet from the Terminator movies. Skynet is essentially an artificially intelligent Internet (presumably Cyberdyne = RAND & DARPA), and the first Terminator debuted in the mid-80's, when the Internet was this cool new thing. Whereas Hal is a singular solitary artificially intelligent supercomputer. Also, MMORPG's (massively multiplayer online role-playing games) would not exist, but then that's not so bad, considering that IMHO, many of them kind of suck. Finally, without the Internet, there would be no alternatehistory.com!
1957- The year which will be infamously known as the International Geophysical Year. Major powers discuss launching satellites into orbit, chiefly the United States and the Soviet Union. The majority of the Soviet leadership oppose investing in space exploration, pointing out the numerous economic difficulties on the planetary surface. Sergey Korolyov, chief engineer of the Sputnik program in the OTL, is ridiculed in this scenario and he dies less than a decade later in relative obscurity.
1958- As a result, since Sputnik was never launched, the United States Department of Defense never founded the Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA), which would have later been known as DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency). Additionally, the nonexistence of the Sputnik Program would considerably postpone the Space Race, but that is another story. In the OTL, ARPA was the leading organization to research and develop Internet technologies.
April 1958- Paul Baran, an engineering student at Drexel University, recieves job offers from International Business Machines (IBM).
1959- After graduating, Baran decides it would be much wiser to work for IBM and recieve a much higher salary, than working at measly little RAND Corporation, even if he would have more research freedom at RAND. Being more conservative in their research, IBM would have Paul Baran researching improvements in hardware and software designs rather than computer networking.
1960- Donald Davies, co-inventor of packet switching dies in a car crash. Result: Packet switching is not invented.
1969- Presumably an uneventful* year. ARPANET is never built (though it was launched this date on the OTL) as Paul Baran's theses on decentralised and distributed computer networking were never published, packet switching was not (yet at least) invented, and no active Department of Defense (DoD) research and development agencies existed. *(Remember that 1969 is remembered by Americans as the year of the moon landing. Considering that Sputnik never takes off on this timeline, the space race, if it ever occurs, would be delayed, perhaps the USA would initially lead space exploration. In either case, it is not as likely that the Apollo lunar expedition would occur on this ATL, at this date.)
1960's-70's:
1965- Gordon Moore writes about the exponential increase in computing power with an inversely related change in size of integrated circuits. This thesis is known as Moore's Law.
1968- Moore founds Intel Corporation.
1970's- This decade is marked by accelerating development of integrated circuitry in computers, calculators, and other electronic devices. Much of this R&D is driven by competition between IBM and Intel.
1976- Steve Wozniak and Steve Jobs found Apple Computer.
1980's- Due to the accelerated growth in this altered timeline of integrated circuit technology, and further fine tuning in input and output devices including monitors, compact discs, and printers, the personal computer once a promising invention, fades into obseletion. Personal computers still exist, but by the mid-90's become increasingly rare. Instead by the late 90's/early 2000's, in this altered timeline computing devices the size of a large wallet rival OTL PC's in power, memory capacity, and speed. As such general-purpose PC's are replaced by application-specific devices from the mid-80's onward. Examples include cellular phones, digital fax machines, electronic organizers, word-processing machines (essentially a laptop-shaped device with built-in laser printer), multi-purpose digital cameras, information terminals, videogame consoles (think Playstation or XBox), and all manner of entertainment systems and sufficient stand-alone studio recording equipment. The closest equivalent to OTL PC's would be workstations in some office stations and CAD systems used in scientific research and industry as well as graphic arts and design. Essentially, the modern OTL PC has reduced to little more than a portal to the Internet. In this timeline however, the gap might widen between supercomputers and minicomputers...
1988-1991- Ending of the Cold War. The era of Mutually Assured Destruction has come to an end. The Soviet Union dissolved, the Berlin Wall fell, the Iron Curtain fell. At this time the only Communist country left is Cuba. On the OTL this time period was also known for the development of the World Wide Web, but if the technological prerequisites to the Internet were postponed to 1990, then it could be expected that the internet as we know it would never be invented.
2000's- Given the lack of an Internet, the outsourcing of jobs to India would be nonexistent or at least not as significant, but then considering that American monopoly on the Internet until the 1990's provided American computer technology a head start, in this timeline, Japan and subsequently Korea would have caught up long ago, possibly even surpassing American technology earlier on in such fields. As a result Silicon Valley would pale in comparison to Tokyo or Seoul. (Although this is not too different from the OTL!)
2004-2008- By now, due to lack of research and development on networks, decades of accelerated research and development in computer power, capacity, and speed on this altered timeline, compared to the OTL would have arrived near the limit of the integrated circuit (remember Moore's Law) and so, physicists would be interested in engineering alternative means of computing (i.e. nanodrive and quantum computing as opposed to silicon-based circiuts). Also, computer scientists would be ever closer to developing artificial intelligence.
===============================================
In conclusion, I make the following predictions for this altered timeline:
* In lieu of research on computer networking, more research would be devoted towards improving computers themselves, perhaps prompting completely different unforseen revolutions in computer science.
* Inventions involving optical technology may also progress faster, resulting in the inventions of compact discs, laser discs, DVD, and laser printers occuring over a decade earlier than on the OTL. As such, 8-tracks and certainly, audiocassete tapes (both of which are often considered technological steps down from vinyl records) would presumably never exist. Similarly, research improving television and monitor displays may be faster resulting in earlier advances in LCD and plasma screens and fiber optics technology may still be invented, though probably after an initial delay because computer networking largely created the demand for optical fibers.
* The fascimile machine, often thought of as a dinosaur in the workplace, would become more prominent, never falling into its OTL obscolete status. In fact upgrades such as digital fascimile (DigiFax) would increase its popularity. Without Arpanet and subsequent networks, e-mail would never take off.
* The invention of cellular phones (as we know them) may experience a delay, but once started they would grow even faster than one can imagine.
* Presumably computer networks of some form would eventually be invented, but these would in no way resemble the Internet. Soon enough modems, packet switching (or a related method), and time-sharing would be developed, but the computer networks which would evolve from these technologies would presumably be very different. Consider that the general trend in the evolution and development of the computer network was top-down; first a proto-internet (ARPANET), then smaller intranets, then finally ethernet. From wide-area networks (WAN) to local-area networks (LAN). In this TL, computer networks would initially begin as local connections between computers within a building (ethernets) and local area networks, followed by wide area networks (what we now call intranets). If Arpanet never existed and its technological prerequisites postponed until after the Cold War, the closest we would likely have to an Internet would be a series of localized, highly centralized "intranets" connected to other nearby intranets with modem-like connections. These would not be nearly as unified (being largely private and corporatized) or international as the Internet. For instance, very few of such networks would cross borders. In whatever case, PC's would be far less prolific in this timeline, thus limiting the accessibility of such networks. Instead private civilians would be more connected through centralized digital phone networks.
* Satelite technology, another prerequisite of the growth of the Internet would also likely experience developmental delays. (Remember in this TL Sputnik was never launched, leaving a huge effect on the Space Race).
* Bill Gates, would still likely be a millionaire, though most likely not a billionaire. Apple Computer became famous in OTL for the Ipod, and in this TL, PC's would not compete well with more portable devices. Microsoft software would not have the success in a world where personal computers are not as relevant, and Microsoft would be seen as a nerdy company catering to business, rather than a hip and trendy company, such as Apple. Then again, Gates might develop such devices as the XBox and software such as Microsoft Word for word processors.
* Tom Anderson, infamously known as the man behind MySpace would be a complete loser without the Internet. I guarantee you. Similarly, the guy behind Ebaum's World (I forgot his name) would fade into obscurity, probably remaining a college dropout working for his father rather than a millionaire. James "Jimbo" Wales of Wikipedia fame would be unknown except maybe in Las Vegas or Amsterdam, wherever the adult entertainment industry takes him. (Wikipedia was founded by a pornographer.)
* The youth culture of the developed nations would be very different. There would be no difference in the 60's and 70's, a neglible one from 1978-1984, and a considerable difference in the 80's and early 90's. From the mid-late 90's to today, much youth and pop culture was deeply ingrained with cyber culture. The Internet as a medium has shaped "Generation X" and subsequent generations in nearly every way. By 1996-2006 on the altered TL, the pop culture would seem almost unrecognizable compared to the OTL.
* Some bad things: For one, the Terminator trilogy may never be produced. Compare Hal, the antagonistic AI in 2001: A Space Odyssey (1969, when Arpanet started and few people knew about such networks) with Skynet from the Terminator movies. Skynet is essentially an artificially intelligent Internet (presumably Cyberdyne = RAND & DARPA), and the first Terminator debuted in the mid-80's, when the Internet was this cool new thing. Whereas Hal is a singular solitary artificially intelligent supercomputer. Also, MMORPG's (massively multiplayer online role-playing games) would not exist, but then that's not so bad, considering that IMHO, many of them kind of suck. Finally, without the Internet, there would be no alternatehistory.com!
) In more cynical moods I view the Internet as a factor of the decadence of Western civilization. It is hard to consider the impact, both positive AND negative of the Internet, and therefore the result of its absence. In short, I mostly agree with Ray Bradbury on the Internet! Not to mention its effect on youth culture and pop culture in general (mostly negative and decadent). Then again I am looking at the negative and overlooking the positive. There are nevertheless many sites (i.e. 